snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 I'm still waiting for the rest of the Cherry and willow leaves to fall before my last mow. We need a good windstorm to finish things off! We finally got a good east wind yesterday so everything is down now. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 The 12z ECMWF ensemble continues to like the idea of -NAO with slightly above normal heights over the GOA for the 11 to 15 day period. Not too shabby. The control model is much the same except for more robust with the anoms. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 GOES-R satellite launch streaming on NASA TV right now. Launch has been delayed 35 minutes so far. Kind of neat to watch. https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html#public 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 19, 2016 Report Share Posted November 19, 2016 GOES-R satellite launch streaming on NASA TV right now. Launch has been delayed 35 minutes so far. Kind of neat to watch. https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html#publicWas fun to watch, thanks for the heads up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 The 18z continues to look reasonably chilly for the most part. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Am I the only one who's kinda bored? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Am I the only one who's kinda bored?No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 48/34 was yesterday's high/low. Today wasn't much warmer. The anti-pipeline protesters downtown made it feel even colder too. Funny how the majority of them probably supported Trudeau last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 00z GFS in 56 minutes! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Another tweet from JB: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 00z GFS in 9 minutes Feel free to play alongNorthwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Another tweet from JB: IMG_1278.JPGYawn Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Through day 7 no real changes. Incredible mountain snow potential 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Through day 7 no real changes. Incredible mountain snow potential I like that more than cold and dry right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Day 7-8 compared to previous 5 runs notice a huge difference with energy much weaker off Asia, Kamchatka and the Aleutians. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Out to hr 180, less amplified and more zonal. Still cool, not as cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 To summarize things are not looking as good. Normal winter stuff Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Yuck hr 204 it looks like it wants to move a ridge over us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Definitely more cold into Alaska and NW Canada Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 00z GFS in 9 minutes Feel free to play alongNorthwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6 No Alaska view? Currently in Tenakee Springs! Not any snow on the ground. It's about 19 degrees right now (per wunderground...) I can probably count the number of times Tenakee Springs has hit 19 degrees in the 3 years in one hand. Wouldn't be surprised anyway. Sunrise tomorrow at about 8am, sunset at 03:35pm. Hope to sight in my girlfriends rifle and then go cruise around on the skiff and look for deer. Winds look to be pretty mild, so that should be nice. Hoping for some snow this next week. Will really make the hunting a bit easier. I'm okay with walking around to find them, but about 6 inches of snow will really help fill the freezer. 18z GFS showed a good amount of snow, 00z... moves the timing of the front up and shortens it. Oh well. Hope for the best. Will work with the weather gods give us. Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 No Alaska view? Currently in Tenakee Springs! Not any snow on the ground. It's about 19 degrees right now (per wunderground...) I can probably count the number of times Tenakee Springs has hit 19 degrees in the 3 years in one hand. Wouldn't be surprised anyway. Sunrise tomorrow at about 8am, sunset at 03:35pm. Hope to sight in my girlfriends rifle and then go cruise around on the skiff and look for deer. Winds look to be pretty mild, so that should be nice. Hoping for some snow this next week. Will really make the hunting a bit easier. I'm okay with walking around to find them, but about 6 inches of snow will really help fill the freezer. 18z GFS showed a good amount of snow, 00z... moves the timing of the front up and shortens it. Oh well. Hope for the best. Will work with the weather gods give us.Here ya go http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112000&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=292 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Is that a Rex block setting up at 160 W? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Here ya go http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112000&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=292Haha was just kidding, have it bookmarked. Holy smokes I spoke to soon. I feel like I know enough to think I'll see snow in the next couple days, but no idea really of the specific timing or how much. Or maybe it will be cold rain. Time to stoke the fire and... chill haha Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 In my opinion, this is a vastly improved run from 135/140 W to 180W/date line. If we see future runs or the ECMWF show the energy coming off Asia/Kamchatka weaker, that could bode very well for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Wow. Ridge builds into Alaska and retrogrades in Lala land Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Definitely hinting and some large scale blocking late in the run. Could be interesting to watch future runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Definitely hinting and some large scale blocking late in the run. Could be interesting to watch future runs.Agreed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Day 8-14 500mb Composite Analogs. Not bad. Move the positive anomaly further west and we're in business. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Nice GFS run tonight. Very solid indeed! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Day 8-14 500mb Composite Analogs. Not bad. Move the positive anomaly further west and we're in business. That 1968 analog keeps showing up. Right about the time of the December warning shot that year. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Yawn It shows us cold. What's wrong with that? 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 It shows us cold. What's wrong with that? Agreed. Plus the mountain snowpack is going to look very nice starting this week. Higher elevations in WA/BC will easily see 4-6 feet over the upcoming period. A nice change from the past two seasons that had lackluster starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Agreed. Plus the mountain snowpack is going to look very nice starting this week. Higher elevations in WA/BC will easily see 4-6 feet over the upcoming period. A nice change from the past two seasons that had lackluster starts. Wow! I can't believe how this is unfolding EXACTLY how I wanted. As we get into week two the -NAO -PNA theme is quite impressive. Showing up strongly on most GFS runs. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Over the last few days I forgot how nice it was to look at the mountains and see snow. Even nicer to see that they're gonna be slammed with snow over the next few weeks. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Wow! I can't believe how this is unfolding EXACTLY how I wanted. As we get into week two the -NAO -PNA theme is quite impressive. Showing up strongly on most GFS runs. Right. Just a few days ago Cliff Mass was calling for the end of the world with a crappy ski season. I know we have been off to a slow start this November with warmth, but things are turning around for the better in the next 7-10 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Right. Just a few days ago Cliff Mass was calling for the end of the world with a crappy ski season. I know we have been off to a slow start this November with warmth, but things are turning around for the better in the next 7-10 days. I can't understand where he was coming from with that. The blob is gone and he should know huge November torches are usually followed by good things. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 The WRF is showing a lot of days with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s next week with lows in the upper 30s or so. Certainly continues the cooling trend. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Euro at day 10 looks like a classic pre-Arctic setup for 1-12 weeks later. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 20, 2016 Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 Euro at day 10 looks like a classic pre-Arctic setup for 1-12 weeks later.LOL Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2016 00z CMC Ensembles - 500mb anomalies: looks like a retrogression signal after day 1000z ECMWF Ensembles - 500mb anomalies: Nice positive anomaly 160-165 W with some(not a lot) of amplification. The trough digging through the southern plains isn't helpful though. 6z GFS in 42 minutes!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.