November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

Classic pre-Arctic outbreak windstorm model inconsistency.

This is one of those times when I wish you would give genuine input

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 much better amplification. Possible rex block developing. MUCH colder in AK/YK

[snow_wizard]

Wow, tonight's CFS is incredible, starting Christmas, cold NW flow turns into an arctic blast 2 weeks later and then the action in the Pacific just dies... Probably cold inversions for awhile after that at face value.

I saw that too. In all seriousness the CFS has gotten somewhat consistent in showing a cold pattern for December.

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112200/gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

[Deweydog]

This is one of those times when I wish you would give genuine input

I don't have much to give right now. I thought we were in pretty decent position for a cold snap late this month but that faded early this month. I don't have much of a feeling for next month but my expectations are low. Just gotta have fun with it.

[Gradient Keeper]

We really need a southeast US ridge, not a cold trough plowing towards it.

[Bryant]

I don't have much to give right now. I thought we were in pretty decent position for a cold snap late this month but that faded early this month. I don't have much of a feeling for next month but my expectations are low. Just gotta have fun with it.

Fair enough, just thought I'd see what you were thinking. If December begins to perk your interest let me know

[MossMan]

Fair enough, just thought I'd see what you were thinking. If December begins to perk your interest let me know

I do like that the PNA is attempting to dive at the end...it's one positive step!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[Phil]

Yeah much different configuration of lows near the Aleutians than the 18z when looking around hr 198. A large difference maker is the 18z showed a 956mb low at hr 162 compared to next-to-nothing (998) on 00z at that same time. Interested to see how this plays out downstream.

Looks like a scenario where the NAO block will try to fuse with the GOA/EPO block. Probably results in a backdoor/offshore flow event or something.

[luvssnow_spokane]

For the curious -- Hour 222... 

 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Nice consistency... tracking the windstorm potential for Friday.

 

Here was the 12Z run for 10 a.m. on Friday morning... looking good:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

 

 

And now the 00Z run for the exact same time:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

 

 

 

Is that track slightly north or slightly south??? Almost identical.

40 mph winds?

[Deweydog]

Fair enough, just thought I'd see what you were thinking. If December begins to perk your interest let me know

Will do.

[Phil]

Going to attempt a retrogression after day 10.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hour 240 -- LOOKING GOOD!! Retrogression?! YAH!

 

 

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 00z GFS shows the PNW is really close to snow down to the Valley floor on the first day of December.  500 mb thickness is below 528 mb with moisture.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112200/240/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112200/216/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112200/240/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

[Phil]

This might be more than just a warning shot in clown range, assuming this progression continues.

 

Big -NAMT..going to retrograde that ridge into the sweet spot sometime in the 11-15.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This might be more than just a warning shot in clown range, assuming this progression continues.

 

Big -NAMT..going to retrograde that ridge into the sweet spot sometime in the 11-15.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I told ya. Get ready. Be prepared

[Kayla]

This might be more than just a warning shot in clown range, assuming this progression continues.

 

Big -NAMT..going to retrograde that ridge into the sweet spot sometime in the 11-15.

 

This is most positive thing we have heard from you in weeks! 

[MossMan]

We just need Cliff to post another blog like this one...would seal the deal for arctic fun about a week down the road!

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2008/12/endless-fall.html?m=1

[Phil]

Big difference this run: No Hudson Bay/NAO vortex.

 

Whether or not the polar front makes it south of northern WA in clown land, I think this run makes an example of the necessity of downstream constructive interference. In other words, upstream anticyclonic breaking in lockstep with the -NAO.

[FroYoBro]

Big difference this run: No Hudson Bay/NAO vortex.

 

Whether or not the polar front makes it south of northern WA, I think this run makes an example of thr necessity that is downstream constructive interference.

I've been saying that for years. 

[Timmy]

I must say the 500mb progression after day 10 looks similar to 2008...

[Gradient Keeper]

It seems evident a large scale, perhaps dramatic pattern change is coming. Right now we're not even into the infancy stages of what that is going to ultimately mean for us. Retrogression seems likely given the rather consistent Ensembles from all model camps showing the positive anomaly backing off towards western Alaska. Fun model runs ahead and equally tense model riding. I will say I like what I saw tonight days 6-10 in the "believable" time frame.

[Phil]

This is most positive thing we have heard from you in weeks!

Haha. I just look for a supplementary wavebreaking regime, and this run happens to deliver in that regard. Was obvious by hr162.

 

Without that, nothing happens.

[Sometimesdylan]

Big differences HR 96-132 in the Gulf of Alaska and entire 500mb pattern back to Asia.

 

I would almost say even in the 1-96hr range there has been big differences, at least in SEAK

[Gradient Keeper]

I must say the 500mb progressive after day 10 looks similar to 2008...

Somewhat..... Face value this run could give WA/OR a decent blast, then a re-load via Gorge. Arctic trough looks to tap into cross polar flow feeding bitter air through Yukon, Northwest Territories, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan.

[Deweydog]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIjhjZ5cahY

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doesnt turn out great, but next week is a lot better.

[Phil]

Poleward mass/momentum fluxes/equatorward eddy flux, strong NAMT/EAMT ratio. Fantasyland stuff here, but would eventually result in a classic -EPO/NPAC wavebreak that'd propagate poleward.

 

Hard to dislike the underlying tendencies on this one, despite some minor flaws.

[liquidsnow]

It seems evident a large scale, perhaps dramatic pattern change is coming. Right now we're not even into the infancy stages of what that is going to ultimately mean for us. Retrogression seems likely given the rather consistent Ensembles from all model camps showing the positive anomaly backing off towards western Alaska. Fun model runs ahead and equally tense model riding. I will say I like what I saw tonight days 6-10 in the "believable" time frame.

 

Sounds like war is afoot.

 

Battle of the mundane warm anomalies caused by the heat that's directed towards Phil verse the refreshing chill of polar bear breath and eskimo farts.

 

Anything short of epic will be a major disappointment.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I must say the 500mb progression after day 10 looks similar to 2008...

 

I have to agree there are some similarities other than it showing up about a week earlier. 

[Front Ranger]

This better not ruin January...

[Front Ranger]

I have to agree there are some similarities other than it showing up about a week earlier. 

 

FWIW (close to zero), the models pulled about 3 rounds of teasers before things got serious 7-10 days out in 2008. I believe the first one was around this time.

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 00z GFS shows a ton of Arctic air at the Canada-US border at day 15 along with a SE ridge that starts to develop. We should start to see more retrogression occur after this point and I believe we will follow the 1983 analog and have an Arctic Blast starting around mid December.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112200/360/850th_nb.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112200/360/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

This better not ruin January...

Tropical forcings have been emulating 1983/84 almost perfectly, regardless of the volcanic strat that year.

 

However January 1984 turned out, I'd lean towards something similar to that (forcing wise), except with more polar blocking/NAO and a higher H/W ratio.

[MossMan]

FWIW (close to zero), the models pulled about 3 rounds of teasers before things got serious 7-10 days out in 2008. I believe the first one was around this time.

You are correct, I just went through the Nov. 2008 thread and there were teasers and hopes dashed...which repeated for several days.

[luvssnow_spokane]

FWIW (close to zero), the models pulled about 3 rounds of teasers before things got serious 7-10 days out in 2008. I believe the first one was around this time.

I know....  <_ was talking about the pattern... not progression. geesh...>

[Bryant]

The updated run of the 00z GFS shows a ton of Arctic air at the Canada-US border at day 15 along with a SE ridge that starts to develop. We should start to see more retrogression occur after this point and I believe we will follow the 1983 analog and have an Arctic Blast starting around mid December.

 

Another account huh?

[Phil]

Another account huh?

I think he switched his screen name or something.