November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

It's an Ark filled kind of day.

[Phil]

If it looks like a turd, smells like a turd and sounds like a turd then you can bet it's a stinking turd...

 

You don't want to see that Greenland block develop...or else December could be a snooze and #wintercancel and #whyistherecactusgrowinginmyyard will be trending in the PNW.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112212/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

Wrong. That Greenland block is what's keeping the troughing in the west-central US/Canada via constructive interference with the -PNA circulation.

 

How is this not obvious? Have we all forgotten what the last several winters have had in common? A Hudson Bay Vortex, which destructively interferes with the -PNA circulation (and constructively interferes with the +PNA/TNA circulation).

[Phil]

The problem with the 12z ECMWF is (again) that mature cyclonic wave over Alaska (+EPO), and the corresponding lack of upstream/NPAC amplification. If that verifies, you can absolutely forget about any significant winter weather in the near future. There'd be no chance.

 

Downstream dynamics aren't the problem here. Upstream dynamics are the problem.

[Phil]

That +EPO also promotes a momentum transfer unfavorable for maintaining a SE ridge. The broad/flat NPAC anticyclone/+EPO under a perturbed/semi-perturbed NAM will naturally want to put the trough in the central/eastern US with time.

 

Absolutely have to have that -EPO/amplified anticyclone into the GOA/western Arctic. Without that, there'll be big problems in the long run.

[Front Ranger]

Top 5 warmest Novembers at OLM: 1949, 1954, 1965, 1995, and 2008.

[Front Ranger]

That +EPO also promotes a momentum transfer unfavorable for maintaining a SE ridge. The broad/flat NPAC anticyclone/+EPO under a perturbed/semi-perturbed NAM will naturally want to put the trough in the central/eastern US with time.

 

Absolutely have to have that -EPO/amplified anticyclone into the GOA/western Arctic. Without that, there'll be big problems in the long run.

 

I'm not really worried with how the short term pattern develops one way or another. If the right blocking doesn't develop now, most analogs would argue there's a good chance it develops late December into January.

[Phil]

Top 5 warmest Novembers at OLM: 1949, 1954, 1965, 1995, and 2008.

Tossing the stronger ENSOs leaves 1995 and 2008, both of which were -ENSO but different in a number of ways.

 

Obviously we're not following 1949/50 or 1965/66.

[Phil]

I'm not really worried with how the short term pattern develops one way or another. If the right blocking doesn't develop now, most analogs would argue there's a good chance it develops late December into January.

I'm not saying I'm worried about the short term either, I'm just trying to explain what's wrong with the short term progression so we know what to look for going forward.

 

Exactly how the blocking develops is key. I'm confident that significant blocking of some sort will develop in the middle of December, onward, but exactly how/where it develops is still highly uncertain.

[Front Ranger]

Tossing the stronger ENSOs leaves 1995 and 2008, both of which were -ENSO but different in a number of ways.

 

Obviously we're not following 1949/50 or 1965/66.

 

1954 was also weak ENSO.

[Phil]

1954 was also weak ENSO.

It was also a clear -QBO @ 50mb until March (50mb is most important for NPAC conduit).

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/

[Front Ranger]

It was also a clear -QBO @ 50mb until February/March (50mb is most important for NPAC conduit).

 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/

 

Sure, I agree that 1995 and 2008 are better matches. Just pointing out that tossing strong ENSO also left 1954.

[Phil]

Sure, I agree that 1995 and 2008 are better matches. Just pointing out that tossing strong ENSO also left 1954.

Yeah, I should've mentioned that I guess.

[Weather101]

The problem with the 12z ECMWF is (again) that mature cyclonic wave over Alaska (+EPO), and the corresponding lack of upstream/NPAC amplification. If that verifies, you can absolutely forget about any significant winter weather in the near future. There'd be no chance.

 

Downstream dynamics aren't the problem here. Upstream dynamics are the problem.

Winter over

[Phil]

Winter over

No, but if the early December EPO attempt fails, the next attempt will have to wait until late December given intraseasonal forcing returns to the MT/120E domain in mid-December which'll force a +EPO/GOA vortex regime.

[stuffradio]

12Z CMC supports sea level snow in Vancouver proper on December 4, if we had precip. Thickness drops to 520ish. 12Z GEM has widespread 30s in OR next week Friday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No, but if the early December EPO attempt fails, the next attempt will have to wait until late December given intraseasonal forcing returns to the MT/120E domain in mid-December which'll force a +EPO/GOA vortex regime.

 

Well yes.That figures.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z CMC supports sea level snow in Vancouver proper on December 4, if we had precip. Thickness drops to 520ish. 12Z GEM has widespread 30s in OR next week Friday.

 

30s for lows or highs

[stuffradio]

30s for lows or highs

I didn't look at high/low temps for the day, just snapshot.

[ShawniganLake]

Tons of mountain snow on the island today. Mt Washington has recorded 28" so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tons of mountain snow on the island today. Mt Washington has recorded 28" so far.

IMG_0402.JPG

 

Beautiful. Are there any glaciers on Vancouver Island? I know some of the mountains are pretty high. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The "Drunk Uncle" is running right now!

[Timmy]

The "Drunk Uncle" is running right now!

notably more progressive after hour 180.  we will see where this goes.

[stuffradio]

The "Drunk Uncle" is running right now!

Better catch him!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's looking "okay." Tim, Timmy, and I may see a few flakes flying middle of next week. 

[Timmy]

It's looking "okay." Tim, Timmy, and I may see a few flakes flying middle of next week. 

comparing to previous runs, it looks like the 00z last night almost identical at 192

[ShawniganLake]

Beautiful. Are there any glaciers on Vancouver Island? I know some of the mountains are pretty high.

Some small glaciers, yes, but apparently most have melted since the 1970s. The largest one is only about 0.4 square miles. Highest peak is 7200 feet but there are 52 peaks above 6000ft.

[BLI snowman]

18z is chilly-ish-er!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

comparing to previous runs, it looks like the 00z last night almost identical at 192

 

It is quite a bit cooler for the middle/end of next week...At least compared to the 12z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

522 thickness line gets to PDX. Looking like 1000' snow levels!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

[ShawniganLake]

522 thickness line gets to PDX. Looking like 1000' snow levels!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

Looks like some cold Fraser river outflow possible

[crf450ish]

522 thickness line gets to PDX. Looking like 1000' snow levels!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

What does the thicknesses have to do with things? Genuinely do not know. Thanks

[stuffradio]

If you want to see some beautiful glaciers, check this out. It's very close to me, but it's nothing like it is for me because this area is so much higher, but I live relatively close to Golden Ears.

 

 

 

 

What does the thicknesses have to do with things? Genuinely do not know. Thanks

Thickness is what you measure to help determine how low the snow level is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you want to see some beautiful glaciers, check this out. It's very close to me, but it's nothing like it is for me because this area is so much higher, but I live relatively close to Golden Ears.

 

 

 

 

Thickness is what you measure to help determine how low the snow level is.

 

How close is that to you?

[HighlandExperience]

If you want to see some beautiful glaciers, check this out. It's very close to me, but it's nothing like it is for me because this area is so much higher, but I live relatively close to Golden Ears.

 

 

 

 

Thickness is what you measure to help determine how low the snow level is.

Awesome. I've climbed a bit up in the coast range. Love it. Speaking of glaciers I told this pic recently of the glaciers on Rainier

[stuffradio]

How close is that to you?

Because of all the extra driving I have to do, I'm 10 miles away by car from the base of the mountain. Of course you have to fly to get to where they are though.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 4 hours 19 minutes!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Because of all the extra driving I have to do, I'm 10 miles away by car from the base of the mountain. Of course you have to fly to get to where they are though.

 

Very close by. 

[crf450ish]

If you want to see some beautiful glaciers, check this out. It's very close to me, but it's nothing like it is for me because this area is so much higher, but I live relatively close to Golden Ears.

 

 

 

 

Thickness is what you measure to help determine how low the snow level is.

Thanks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Are we excited by the trough dropping in on hour 384 or what!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_52.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Are we excited by the trough dropping in on hour 384 or what!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_52.png

Uncontrollable amounts in fact.