November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Yeah, sorry. I've cussed up and down a lot of sandy, aerated greens over the years.

But it was at a deeply discounted rate! (Hopefully for you as well)

[Deweydog]

But it was at a deeply discounted rate! (Hopefully for you as well)

Especially when we were in high school and we'd sneak on the course at Gearhart and Astoria Country Club.

 

Shhhhhhhh...

[Jesse]

I'll be happy with 20 inches and 33 degrees

Ew, that would melt quick.

 

Subjective, but cold temps with snow are way better since it sticks around longer. Colder arctic blasts are more likely to give snow to widespread areas as well.

 

Plus I just like the asthetics of frozen ponds, icicles, etc. The feel of crisp, frigid air on a sunny bluebird day with a snow covered landscape. Winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'd be great with 30-32 degrees, 8-12" of snow, then a massive blast with temps 10-20 degrees keeping everything frozen in place forever.

[stuffradio]

Ew, that would melt quick.

 

Subjective, but cold temps with snow are way better since it sticks around longer. Colder arctic blasts are more likely to give snow to widespread areas as well.

 

Plus I just like the asthetics of frozen ponds, icicles, etc. The feel of crisp, frigid air on a sunny bluebird day with a snow covered landscape. Winter.

People have their own opinions, and that's fine.

[Jesse]

People have their own opinions, and that's fine.

Yeah, like I said, subjective.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_8.png

[Bryant]

Well, I started as a install technician for DirecTV 6 years ago, 3 years ago I became a field trainer for them and now I am a manager of Network Services for ATT (who DirecTV is a part of now) with my own team of 16 install technicians that I am in charge of between Long Beach and Port Townsend, nothing better than helping my team succeed and achieve their goals like I did, next step is something regional, which I am working towards and who knows, even higher. The regional step is the key to retiring early, but I may decide to go on more either way when that time comes, depends on life.

Thanks for the reply, sounds like you've worked hard to get to where you're at. You should be proud. I asked because I'm always curious what others do for a living, as I haven't quite figured that out myself. I'm a card dealer at a casino, and while the money is decent (50-60k/yr, which is probably nothing to some on here), it's not where I'll be when I'm 50. Feel like every day is a passing opportunity to find something better, but the schedule and flexibility works really well with having a 6 month old so I just shrug it off. Sorry for the rant

[Weather101]

Exactly. I don't need 14 degrees with a foot of snow. 18 degrees with 11.5 inches will suffice.

Exactly

[Weather101]

Thanks for the reply, sounds like you've worked hard to get to where you're at. You should be proud. I asked because I'm always curious what others do for a living, as I haven't quite figured that out myself. I'm a card dealer at a casino, and while the money is decent (50-60k/yr, which is probably nothing to some on here), it's not where I'll be when I'm 50. Feel like every day is a passing opportunity to find something better, but the schedule and flexibility works really well with having a 6 month old so I just shrug it off. Sorry for the rant

Become a Ghostbuster

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO Kind of ugly so far, but didn't expect any improvements until perhaps days 8-10.

[Jesse]

Especially when we were in high school and we'd sneak on the course at Gearhart and Astoria Country Club.

 

Shhhhhhhh...

I always imagine your childhood basically being like an extended cut of The Goonies.

[liquidsnow]

00z EURO Kind of ugly so far, but didn't expect any improvements until perhaps days 8-10.

 

It's time to get real here as December won't be the month. <_>

 

The only warning shot we'll get next month is when Jim fires his shotgun towards the sky in rage.

[MossMan]

Thanks for the reply, sounds like you've worked hard to get to where you're at. You should be proud. I asked because I'm always curious what others do for a living, as I haven't quite figured that out myself. I'm a card dealer at a casino, and while the money is decent (50-60k/yr, which is probably nothing to some on here), it's not where I'll be when I'm 50. Feel like every day is a passing opportunity to find something better, but the schedule and flexibility works really well with having a 6 month old so I just shrug it off. Sorry for the rant

Flexibility goes a long way especially with a young child. My daughter will be 3 in a few months and if I didn't have flexibility in my job it wouldn't be good.

[HighlandExperience]

It's time to get real here as December won't be the month. <_>

 

The only warning shot we'll get next month is when Jim fires his shotgun towards the sky in rage.

 

Jim messing up moss mans golf course because it won't snow

 

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 00z EURO was bad. Back to the drawing board.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

I like where this is going.... A long ways out there though

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png

[Weather101]

☃

[Gradient Keeper]

6z in 2 hours 21 minutes!!!!

[ShawniganLake]

Lots of landscapers in here! I worked full time at a golf course for nearly 10yrs and then another 7yrs as a full time landscaper/grounds person at a very large senior community. Now I sit behind a cozy Mercedes Sprinter van and drive all around the state transferring dogs and cats from over crowded shelters to the animal adoption facility I work at to be spayed/neutered and then adopted out. So I get to enjoy the winter view from inside the van each week as I travel over the pass. My body was just starting to breakdown from the daily manual labor (and I didn't take care of my back in my 20's) but I truly loved all my jobs but this current one is my dream job.

I've been self employed in landscaping since 2004. Also, we have 2 dogs that were rescued from high kill shelters in California.

[snow_wizard]

I'll be happy with 20 inches and 33 degrees

Slop.

[snow_wizard]

Day 10

I like where this is going.... A long ways out there though

 

Good looking surface high complex there. The lobe on the NW corner of it could easily rotate into the sweet spot.

 

Tonight the Weatherbell PNA forecast is -3 on the ECMWF and -2 on the GFS. The GFS features a -4 EPO so that makes a fabulous combo.

[snow_wizard]

The updated run of the 00z EURO was bad. Back to the drawing board.

Not bad at all.

[snow_wizard]

I'm really amazed many people on here aren't more interested in seeing a great January again. So many Januaries that simply blow away our best December.

[snow_wizard]

It's time to get real here as December won't be the month.

 

The only warning shot we'll get next month is when Jim fires his shotgun towards the sky in rage.

The ECMWF depicts a major -PNA. The pattern is evolving very favorably.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm really amazed many people on here aren't more interested in seeing a great January again. So many Januaries that simply blow away our best December.

the reason - One word... "Holidays"

[snow_wizard]

If 1968 keeps showing up and the way models might be heading, might, we could end up with a repeat. 1968 part 2, The Revenge of Old Man Winter!

There were actually 3 parts that winter. The one being shown is the little talked about warning shot just before Christmas. A nice little mini cold snap / snow event. Number 2 was the late December extreme cold wave / snow. Part 3 was the long snowy / cold period in January.

[snow_wizard]

the reason - One word... "Holidays"

I just can't see how that makes it worthwhile to forsake what is historically the most awesome part of our winter BY FAR. Many of our great Januaries did have minor shots of cold and snow come before them in December anyway.

[Weather101]

I just can't see how that makes it worthwhile to forsake what is historically the most awesome part of our winter BY FAR. Many of our great Januaries did have minor shots of cold and snow come before them in December anyway.

Because once we hit January imo if we see nothing in the models winter is basically over. I don't trust just waiting till the final month. I'm happy with snow around Christmas time makes it way better. Throwing snowballs at family members while drinking is always fun at the holidays

[snow_wizard]

Because once we hit January imo if we see nothing in the models winter is basically over. I don't trust just waiting till the final month. I'm happy with snow around Christmas time makes it way better. Throwing snowballs at family members while drinking is always fun at the holidays

February has been known to be very good sometimes also. Even early March has had some fabulous events. I think you're focusing way too much on what you have seen and not enough on what history shows can and will happen again.

[snow_wizard]

I guess the feeling I'm getting is people just don't think January can deliver anymore. Highly unlikely that's the case.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z in 15 minutes!!!!

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to have to post some records from some great Januaries to get people back into reality on here.  Thankfully Mother Nature will do what it wants anyway.  

 

I find it hard to imagine anyone would complain if we had a snowless December followed by a winter like 1936-37 or something like that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Perhaps we would all be remiss to remember the models giveth and the models taketh away. It is not of us to know their ways.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z, Days 3-7 not as good as 00z, still a bit chilly. Days 8-12 a bit milder as the ridge is too close, then days 13-16 long range is tantalizingly close to a massive blast. Southern/southeastern BC turns into an ice box with temps well below zero. Overall 500mb pattern progression after day 10 is really nice.

[westcoastexpat]

These are all nice opinions. People are free to think otherwise too of course. I disagree with every single of of them, for starters.

 

I absolutely agree that everyone is free to having their opinion on what they want out of winter. I do, however, find it tiring that any time someone posts about wanting December over January, Jim pops in to tell them that they are wrong to want it. Not cool.

[westcoastexpat]

Jim is going to mention that 1968 warning shot keeps showing up. 

 

Which is kind of ironic, given that he was barking at anyone who used a +ENSO analog. The Bastardi of the west?

[westcoastexpat]

Who has more time off in December? Hard working people work the same 12 months a year with maybe holidays off.

 

Pretty much everyone I know is off for a stretch during the holidays. A lot of companies give Dec 24 off around here too. You only have to take 3 days off to get 10 or 11 days off with the New Year holiday. Hard working or not, most people are able to take vacation time and many use some of it to be home with their kids during the time they are off school or drive/fly home to be with their families.

[westcoastexpat]

Thanks for the reply, sounds like you've worked hard to get to where you're at. You should be proud. I asked because I'm always curious what others do for a living, as I haven't quite figured that out myself. I'm a card dealer at a casino, and while the money is decent (50-60k/yr, which is probably nothing to some on here), it's not where I'll be when I'm 50. Feel like every day is a passing opportunity to find something better, but the schedule and flexibility works really well with having a 6 month old so I just shrug it off. Sorry for the rant

 

Congratulations on the child!

 

And flexibility is one of the better job perks. I'm a shift worker now and love that I have so much "time off" (even though I'm actually working as much as a 9-5er) and taking a day off goes that much farther with my schedule. I also think your salary is very decent for dealing cards. My advice is to always keep your eyes open for a better opportunity, but in the meantime, keep at it -- sounds like a very good gig as long as you aren't miserable.

[westcoastexpat]

I'm going to have to post some records from some great Januaries to get people back into reality on here.  Thankfully Mother Nature will do what it wants anyway.  

 

I find it hard to imagine anyone would complain if we had a snowless December followed by a winter like 1936-37 or something like that.

 

I think you are underestimating the power of emotional attachment. A lot of us are emotionally attached to the Christmas season and having winter weather during the second half of December makes a huge difference.

 

Just like you are emotionally attached to cold anomalies. People will want what they want. No one is saying they don't want an epic January. But we all have our preferences of when we want winter weather. December 2008 was proof that it can get good enough in December. I didn't need anything more than that. Why do we need colder or snowier than December 2008?

 

What I loved about December 2008 was that it wasn't just one epic snowstorm. It was a series of storms and I felt like I was constantly looking at the radar or models for days and days. It was such a fun active period, and it all came at the perfect time. It doesn't need to be better than what we got in 2008. I don't care if January can be "even better". I don't need better. It's better if it's at Christmas for me. There's no debating that. And cold doesn't keep me up all night watching the weather. It's more of an afterthought.