November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[westcoastexpat]

I just can't see how that makes it worthwhile to forsake what is historically the most awesome part of our winter BY FAR. Many of our great Januaries did have minor shots of cold and snow come before them in December anyway.

 

Jim, you're being an a**. No one has told you that you shouldn't want cold in January. Show some respect to other posters even if you don't want the same things. As a mod, you should be setting a better example.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS in 2 hours 55 minutes!!!!

[Timmy]

The 06z gfs is a kick in the junk...

The next two systems don't go as far south and the Oregon cascades don't get nearly as much snow, especially south of hood...

[Brennan]

[westcoastexpat]

[The Swamp]

When does the first warning shot arrive?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles have definitely gotten worse. 

[Weather101]

I think you are underestimating the power of emotional attachment. A lot of us are emotionally attached to the Christmas season and having winter weather during the second half of December makes a huge difference.

 

Just like you are emotionally attached to cold anomalies. People will want what they want. No one is saying they don't want an epic January. But we all have our preferences of when we want winter weather. December 2008 was proof that it can get good enough in December. I didn't need anything more than that. Why do we need colder or snowier than December 2008?

 

What I loved about December 2008 was that it wasn't just one epic snowstorm. It was a series of storms and I felt like I was constantly looking at the radar or models for days and days. It was such a fun active period, and it all came at the perfect time. It doesn't need to be better than what we got in 2008. I don't care if January can be "even better". I don't need better. It's better if it's at Christmas for me. There's no debating that. And cold doesn't keep me up all night watching the weather. It's more of an afterthought.

Exactly. I don't stay up all night checking the low temps when it's cold lol when we have snow too track then I get excited. I take a snowy December with the holidays over January anytime.

[Deweydog]

When does the first warning shot arrive?

Some people had a frost last week.

 

Consider yourself warned.

[MossMan]

When does the first warning shot arrive?

Dec. 24th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7.21" of rain now on the month. Pretty much right on average. 

[Parksvillewx]

Brrrr...

 

He's had some really good tweets lately about a more Nina pattern coming.

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the Cascades south of Santiam Pass got hammered last night. 

[IbrChris]

The ensembles have definitely gotten worse. 

Time to find the nearest cliff.

[stuffradio]

Today's CFSv2 Monthly has the coldest anomalies focused on SW BC, but a huge swath of the west coast up and down is also cold for December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12zzzzzz

[Bryant]

Today's CFSv2 Monthly has the coldest anomalies focused on SW BC, but a huge swath of the west coast up and down is also cold for December.

You don't get to have all the fun, those anomalies also spread into Whatcom County =P

 

http://i.imgur.com/0K36ME9.jpg

[MossMan]

Dive baby dive!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Time to find the nearest cliff.

 

No doubt.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You don't get to have all the fun, those anomalies also spread into Whatcom County =P

 

http://i.imgur.com/0K36ME9.jpg

 

Does this mean we torch in January again?

[HighlandExperience]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a lot of excitement so far over the 12z.

[ShawniganLake]

Not a lot of excitement so far over the 12z.

We might not even get a warning shot out of this at this rate.

[Kayla]

Thanks! It's an amazing and fun job! And I get to travel all over the state which is also such fun! (Btw we transferred in cats in from Willamette Humane just this week since they were getting overcrowded and needed some help)

 

That's so cool! We actually rescued our cats from the Oregon Human Society, they do some amazing work there.

[Front Ranger]

We might not even get a warning shot out of this at this rate.

 

Real warning shots are usually preceded by modeled warning shots.

 

In other words, the models often give several "warning shots" too early for pattern changes, etc.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel like we'll probably get pummeled while I am out of state the 14-22nd. Probably our only action for the winter. lol

[MossMan]

I feel like we'll probably get pummeled while I am out of state the 14-22nd. Probably our only action for the winter. lol

I'm starting to feel a timeframe similar to 2008...the 13th thru whenever timeframe.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm starting to feel a timeframe similar to 2008...the 13th thru whenever timeframe.

Perfect

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm starting to feel a timeframe similar to 2008...the 13th thru whenever timeframe.

 

Yeah...I would have missed pretty much all the goods in 2008...lol. Oh well. 

 

I am still keying in on January. 

[Heavy Snow]

Not bad at all.

 

You're right. Last night's updated run of the Day 15 00z EURO Ensemble looked great per Michael Ventrice.

 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice

"Wow look at the amplitude of the ridge forecast to build in over the North-Northwest Pacific on Day 15 per ECMWF Ens"

 

http://i.imgur.com/2xKLCgL.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/801478685652086784

[Karl Bonner]

Here it comes... warning shots leading up to an epic January is exactly what I would prefer for a wonderful holiday season. To me, a few days, or a couple of small cold snaps or little snowfalls in December would definitely ADD to the holiday cheer and set the mood. Gazing out at snow showers with Christmas lights in the mix at any point in December is enough to bring forth the child in any of us... but when I think of epic snow and cold weather... i think January. It is better suited for January. No holiday shopping or stress included.

 

I think we should take a poll and have everyone give their desired dates for arctic air and snow. . . For any given 10 day period...

 

 

 

MARCH!!!  :P

 

Actually I'd say the most poetic time for extreme cold would be late January or early February.  Something we haven't see too much of in recent decades.

[ShawniganLake]

Some ensemble members on 12z run showing dropping off at the end. First -10c/-15c members we've seen this year I think. Operational was a warm outlier in the Dec 5-7 period.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Definitely the largest number of cold members we have seen so far. Probably going to get cold somewhere in western NA around then.

[bainbridgekid]

I feel like we'll probably get pummeled while I am out of state the 14-22nd. Probably our only action for the winter. lol

I know it's completely unscientific, but I'll be in Chicago Dec. 17th-Jan. 2nd it just feels right we'd get hit while I'm gone. Its confirmation bias, but I swear it finds a way to snow here every single time I leave in the Winter.

 

6 day blast Dec. 17th-22nd it is I guess?

[Heavy Snow]

Per Michael Ventrice, the reason why we get the +300m anomalous ridge over the North Pacific.

 

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice

"Holy West Pacific irrortational winds. This is the precursor to the +300m anomalous ridge over the North Pacific in the 11-15d"

 

http://i.imgur.com/VKVNpVY.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/801479284258963458

[westcoastexpat]

Jim, which analogs are you looking at for this winter?

[ShawniganLake]

I know it's completely unscientific, but I'll be in Chicago Dec. 17th-Jan. 2nd it just feels right we'd get hit while I'm gone. Its confirmation bias, but I swear it finds a way to snow here every single time I leave in the Winter.

 

6 day blast Dec. 17th-22nd it is I guess?

Thanks for going out of town. Opens a really nice window for us.

[Jesse]

I absolutely agree that everyone is free to having their opinion on what they want out of winter. I do, however, find it tiring that any time someone posts about wanting December over January, Jim pops in to tell them that they are wrong to want it. Not cool.

I will agree with you here.

[Kayla]

The 12z run was definitely the best looking GFS ensembles of the season. Control run looks like was an outlier. Models might be beginning to hone in on something later in week 2.

 

Will be interested to see the 12z Euro control run at week 2 and the ensembles later today.

[Kayla]

Little bit lost in all the extended range talk is the system moving in later tonight into Thanksgiving day. Looking like some pretty big flooding concerns for the North Oregon coastal areas.

 

12z ECMWF is even showing nearly 3" of rainfall for PDX and nearing 4" on the western fridges of the Willamette Valley over the next 48 hours.

 

Edit: Flood Watch just issued by the NWS for the Willamette Valley and Coastal areas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well looking at the ensembles we have pretty much lost the mid-range, but the long range is improving. Carrot meet Stick.