November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Looks like Tokyo received their first November snowfall in 54 years today.

 

I'm guessing the sprawling cold airmass over Eurasia had something to do with it.

 

 

I was noticing the uneven distribution of cold air on the ECMWF maps for the Northern Hemisphere.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls12/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-NmerJK.png

 

What years do we have a guides for this type situation?

[snow_wizard]

Looks like Tokyo received their first November snowfall in 54 years today.

 

I'm guessing the sprawling cold airmass over Eurasia had something to do with it.

Wow!

 

That means it happened in 1962. Jan 1963 had the amazing nation wide cold wave.

[Front Ranger]

1961 has probably been the most consistent pattern analog the past week. 

[snow_wizard]

Well, 00z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog isn't bad at all. I expected worse.

 

 

 

Quite solid list of years.

[snow_wizard]

1961 has probably been the most consistent pattern analog the past week.

I was just thinking the same. Pretty decent winter for us. The main cold was pretty late, but there was a solid cold shot in January.

[Front Ranger]

Not necessarily. As long as things don't go too crazy in December January will still be on the table. 1949, 1956, and 1968 all had solid warning shots in early to mid December. All went on to have great Januaries.

 

I have an idea. How about to satisfy everyone, we schedule a 3 week long Arctic bonanza running Dec 22 - Jan 14? Awesome December holiday season and awesome January, all rolled into one.

[Front Ranger]

I was just thinking the same. Pretty decent winter for us. The main cold was pretty late, but there was a solid cold shot in January.

 

Also a nice little event Dec 10-13 that was close to being much better. A lot of places saw sub-freezing highs and some snow with that.

[Weather101]

I have an idea. How about to satisfy everyone, we schedule a 3 week long Arctic bonanza running Dec 22 - Jan 14? Awesome December holiday season and awesome January, all rolled into one.

You just solved the problem.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

It would be real nice to see improvements before day 9-10.

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

[BLI snowman]

The GEM should be deported.

[stuffradio]

I have an idea. How about to satisfy everyone, we schedule a 3 week long Arctic bonanza running Dec 22 - Jan 14? Awesome December holiday season and awesome January, all rolled into one.

Why not December 21st? What did that day do to you!?

[Front Ranger]

You just solved the problem.

 

I'm all about bringing weenies together.

[stuffradio]

This day in 2014 I made a post (on Facebook) about temps plummeting for the following week in Abbotsford. 2014 analog match! (Ugh), at least we had snow in February I think, right?

[Front Ranger]

Why not December 21st? What did that day do to you!?

 

I prefer even numbers.

[Gradient Keeper]

Colder runs ahead - MBG

[stuffradio]

I prefer even numbers.

That's odd.

[Deweydog]

High of 49 at PDX! 

 

F***ing 50!!!!!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

I have an idea. How about to satisfy everyone, we schedule a 3 week long Arctic bonanza running Dec 22 - Jan 14? Awesome December holiday season and awesome January, all rolled into one.

Sounds great!

 

We really need something in the Jan 25 to Feb 5 period also. That is actually the time frame for many of our greatest events. Your proposal is a good compromise though. Let's make it happen.

[snow_wizard]

F***ing 50!!!!!!!!!

 

SEA pulled off a high of 48. I think it will hold.

[catnip]

The GEM should be deported.

Build a wall around it!

[snow_wizard]

Also a nice little event Dec 10-13 that was close to being much better. A lot of places saw sub-freezing highs and some snow with that.

I just saw that as I was checking that winter out a few minutes ago. A couple of events that could have easily been quite impressive, and were in fact pretty solid.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF gets just a tad cold in Alaska/Yukon. 925mb temps -27c to -33c.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016112400/images_d1/slp.180.0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Holy crap!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Holy crap!!!!

THIS! 00z ECMWF 24 hr rainfall 3.1" for PDX. Imagine how much worse this would be if PWATs were higher. We'd need to build moats a.s.a.p.

 

http://i.imgur.com/vbvNWCx.jpg

[luvssnow_spokane]

THIS! 00z ECMWF 24 hr rainfall 3.1" for PDX. Imagine how much worse this would be if PWATs were higher. We'd need to build moats a.s.a.p.

 

http://i.imgur.com/vbvNWCx.jpg

Imagine if it was cold enough to be snow .

[Gradient Keeper]

Imagine if it was cold enough to be snow .

PDX would be buried several times over. It would be glorious.

[liquidsnow]

Yuck, it may be time to find another hobby to counter this nothingness. Do I get a green light to blame someone for all this?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

PDX would be buried several times over. It would be glorious.

Amen!! Gorton would have to settle for ice fishing.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yuck, it may be time to find another hobby to counter this nothingness. Do I get a green light to blame someone for all this?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

Yes, you can beat the out of me. I will take one for the team

[Gradient Keeper]

Fugly run through day 8

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png

[Bryant]

Yuck, it may be time to find another hobby to counter this nothingness. Do I get a green light to blame someone for all this?

 

You act as though you've never seen the models flip flop... give it time young grasshopper

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9-10 things start heading in the right direction.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png

[liquidsnow]

You act as though you've never seen the models flip flop... give it time young grasshopper

 

Aside from 2008, when have the models "flip flopped" back in our favour?

[Gradient Keeper]

Very bitter arctic air sliding south into northern British Columbia, Alberta. Things are priming themselves nicely.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_T850_ak_11.png

[BLI snowman]

 

 

 

Day 9-10 things start heading in the right direction.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png

Arctic air heading towards us there at day 10. Looks like the ridge retrogrades favorably in that 12/4 to 12/7 timeframe. Similar to GFS.

[Heavy Snow]

 

Day 9-10 things start heading in the right direction.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png

 

 

Yeah, the updated run of the 00z EURO shows a classic retrogression signal starting at around Day 9. The ridge starts to amplify in the sweet spot. We would definitely have Arctic air over the PNW soon after this.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112400/216/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112400/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic air heading towards us there at day 10. Looks like the ridge retrogrades favorably in that 12/4 to 12/7 timeframe. Similar to GFS.

Exactly right. Offshore ridge and Aleutian block merge/re-configures somewhere near 160 W. It's coming. Colder runs ahead.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, the updated run of the 00z EURO shows a classic retrogression signal starting at around Day 9. The ridge starts to amplify in the sweet spot. We would definitely have Arctic air over the PNW soon after this.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112400/216/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112400/240/500h_anom.na.png

CLASSIC!!!

[Bryant]

Aside from 2008, when have the models "flip flopped" back in our favour?

We're talking about 8+ days out, are you being serious right now? When have the models NOT flip flipped in that range? Often times the models will catch on to a pattern change and advertise it too early, only to have it taken away or pushed back for a few days

[Weather101]

Yes, you can beat the s**t out of me. I will take one for the team

That's a great team player.