November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

 

Day 3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/072/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z ECMWF

 

Day 3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/072/500h_anom.na.png

 

Here we go friends and neighbors!

[Gradient Keeper]

Trough lifting out of the Great Lakes bit faster and heights higher over southeast US.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen posted his thoughts this evening! Nothing earth shattering. 1000' snow levels likely. 

[Heavy Snow]

Trough lifting out of the Great Lakes bit faster and heights higher over southeast US.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

I have a feeling this updated run of the EURO is going to be the best one to date!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEPS colder than 12z. Nice trend.

[Front Ranger]

Euro is ahead of GFS with progress of cold air south. Ridge building a bit further west.

 

EDIT: Not faster with cold air by day 5, though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/120/500h_anom.na.png

[GobBluth]

Going to be a close one, seems the ability of the low to fully split off out north of Hawaii is the ultimate key.

[Deweydog]

Going to be a close one.

38-35 in OT.

[Gradient Keeper]

Already looks better to me

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_6.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Next frame is everything

[Gradient Keeper]

Uhhh Day 6 Block now. Ridge is holding 160 W

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Heavy Snow]

 

 

 

Uhhh Day 6 Block now. Ridge is holding 160 W

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/144/500h_anom.na.png

Here it comes! Hang on tight everybody!

[bainbridgekid]

Block holds much stronger through hour 144 on the Euro. Nice improvement, but the shortwave actually digs a little far West which would give us more onshore flow.

 

[Front Ranger]

Ridge is way more amplified than GFS, just a bit further west than ideal. Looks good overall, though.

[Deweydog]

Next frame is everything

[Gradient Keeper]

Next frame is everything

©DJ Droppin

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/168/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

©DJ Droppin

 

Damnit! I was going to trademark that!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112900/168/500h_anom.na.png

Kool Beans

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.png

[Front Ranger]

Most definitely a lowland snow pattern at day 7. Also looks like the blocking ridge is trying to regroup already in the Aleutians.

[Heavy Snow]

Good EURO run so far. I'm pleased.

[IbrChris]

If there's an 850 mb low it's probably a bit NW of the surface low...generally going to be rain south and east of that low center below about 1000'.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png

[HighlandExperience]

Tonight's WRF showing light lowland snow. Not that it matters much at this point. Just nice to see!

[Gradient Keeper]

If that ridge had only held another 1-2 days.... maybe it will on future runs. Good trends on GFS/ECMWF nonetheless

[Kayla]

-10C at SEA and -8C at PDX. I'll take it!

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice backdoor blast Gorge east!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_T850_nwus_10.png

[Gradient Keeper]

6z in 2 hours 33 minutes !!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the ridge placement just never gets right for a big blast. No sign of that happening either, but that's okay. Winter is just getting started. 

[van city]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yikes

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112900/ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

[Heavy Snow]

The trend is our friend again. Coldest GFS and EURO runs to date. Everything should continue to trend colder as we get nearer to the event.

[bainbridgekid]

The trend is our friend again. Coldest GFS and EURO runs to date. Everything should continue to trend colder as we get nearer to the event.

IDK. I feel like this is a really common forecast model myth.

 

As much as we'd like to believe it, the fact the models may appear to have trended colder does not make them more likely to continue getting colder IMO.

 

If anything, it shows how close a pattern is to not being as cold (since previous runs showed that.)

[Gradient Keeper]

The trend is our friend again. Coldest GFS and EURO runs to date. Everything should continue to trend colder as we get nearer to the event.

and GEFS was much improved, GEPS was a bit colder too. Yep, let's keep this going.

[Cold front]

Fraser River and the Gorge canyons could be ripping

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX around day 9-10 may be setting up for Snow, possibly significant amounts as moisture arrives and there is a deep cold pool eastern Gorge/Columbia Basin to draw colder air through the Gorge.