Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Money]

Big snowstorm on the Euro for Christmas day for NE/IA/MN/WI.

 

12+ inches. 

[gabel23]

Big snowstorm on the Euro for Christmas day for NE/IA/MN/WI.

 

12+ inches.

 

Map??

[Andrew NE]

00Z euro

[Tom]

With the aforementioned pull back inevitably on the way, ensembles and op runs continue to show several chances of snow.  As we get closer in time, the ensembles seem to be backing off of the real warm temps they were showing a week ago.  My guess is the models see the snow cover and the impact it is having on temps.  As long as it snows, I'm ok with a pull back to near normal. 

[Money]

Can we go 4/4 on weekend storms? GGEM at HR 144 has a 1000 low in Colorado

[hlcater]

Can we go 4/4 on weekend storms? GGEM at HR 144 has a 1000 low in Colorado

euro has a storm too, but its on the 26th. I'd assume this is the same piece of energy, but the 06z GFS shunts it down to the south and east. Temps look to warm above freezing for some after christmas, which is okay as long as snow is on the ground for christmas.

[Money]

Gfs keeps the energy down in New Mexico and Texas and gets cutoff and suppressed while the euro and now GGEM develop it in the Rockies

[CentralNebWeather]

I see the Canadian has a storm through Nebraska and east. The gfs is a littte more south through Kansas and euro last night is eastern Nebraska and points east. Could Nebraskans finally get in on some Christmas magic? Another week of tracking. Might as well keep hope alive, santa may deliver.

[Tom]

I see the Canadian has a storm through Nebraska and east. The gfs is a littte more south through Kansas and euro last night is eastern Nebraska and points east. Could Nebraskans finally get in on some Christmas magic? Another week of tracking. Might as well keep hope alive, santa may deliver.

Lot's of variables with this sytem.  1) High over Low Placement 2) Cut-Off low west of the Baja  3) How strong is the SE ridge

 

Might be a Christmas Miracle for NE peeps...

[Tom]

12z GEFS showing a strong HP...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121812/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_27.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121812/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_31.png

[GDR]

[OKwx2k4]

Loving the 12z GFS today. Gives KC a very white Christmas. Still a long way out, though.

Let's go back to the 0z that way we can both have some nice deep snow. Deal?

[Money]

Let's go back to the 0z that way we can both have some nice deep snow. Deal?

No deal

[OKwx2k4]

No deal

Late 70s bomb then? I'm trying here buddy. Lol

[Money]

991 in SW KS at hr 168

[Tom]

12z Euro looks like another Dakotas storm but maybe hits parts of NE as well...

[OKwx2k4]

Euro has been moving all over the place the last 3 runs.

[Andrew NE]

Yea there is decent snow breaking out in western/central NE at hour 168..

[CentralNebWeather]

Yea there is decent snow breaking out in western/central NE at hour 168..

Always good to see a low in southwest Kansas. Depending on track, usually gives us something. Typically a path to kc is good for northern Kansas and Nebraska

[Andrew NE]

You get crushed on the 12z, just cuts way to hard for eastern NE. Hopefully we have something to track for the 4th week in a row.

[gabel23]

You get crushed on the 12z, just cuts way to hard for eastern NE. Hopefully we have something to track for the 4th week in a row.

Can you post snow map when you get a chance?! Thanks, it looks to me like this run has central and western Nebraska getting crushed. This would be crazy to have 4 storms in a row to track.......you would think we could get hit by one of them.....

[CentralNebWeather]

At least something to keep an eye on. Too much time yet. We know how these things can change from run to run. Plus other models show different locations.

[Andrew NE]

Here ya go

[Andrew NE]

12Z

[Tom]

All the ensembles are showing a super wet system and the potential is there for a Christmas Miracle storm...

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z

Yes please. Fun to look at, nothing more yet.

[gabel23]

All the ensembles are showing a super wet system and the potential is there for a Christmas Miracle storm...

This would be crazy! 4 storms in a row with no blocking and a positive AO......I can't imagine what could happen during the next cycle if we can get those two to go negative.

[buzzman289]

HP is going to push that south. My 2 cents

[Tom]

HP is going to push that south. My 2 cents

That's the way GEFS have been trending over the last 2 days.  Believe it or not, given how complex this past weekends storm was...GEFS did very well in the 7-day range.

[winterfreak]

I doubt there's enough cold this far south for the GFS to verify. Cute little pipe dream though.

[Tom]

Both GEFS/EPS seeing the Banana HP but differ on the track...EPS takes the Low into the western GL's...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016121812/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016121812/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_9.png

[Money]

Gfs is a solid Christmas storm for many

[winterfreak]

Bad timing again with the warm air surge.

[East Dubzz]

Nice eye candy

[Money]

1-2 feet from NE/IA/MN/WI and 8+ for Chicago

[gabel23]

Wonder how this one is going to miss us?! I'm guessing won't be as strong of a storm as being shown.....this would be a Christmas miracle for a lot of people though. Valley mentioned it in their discussion today.

 

The EC/GFS/Canadian agree on a potential winter storm for

Christmas Day. The GFS is farther south and keeps OMA on the

northern fringe of the snow, however the 00Z EC has an open system

and allow the moisture to advanced northward into the Dakotas. The

EC has a 180mi wide heavy snow swath centered north over SUX,

while the GFS has a narrower heavy snow swath 80 to 100mi wide

centered 225 miles south closer to TOP. the 12Z EC is even more

robust with the heavy snow and a little farther northwest than the

previous run. The Canadian also has more development farther north

than the GFS covering more of our forecast area with snow.

 

This far out and a lot can change, however will want to pay

attention to the forecast for Friday night through Sunday for

those traveling over the holidays.

 

&&

 

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

 

Look for VFR conditions through the period. There will be some

clouds above 9000 feet this afternoon.

 

&&

 

.CLIMATE...

Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2016

 

We broke the record low at Norfolk for both the 17th and the 18th as

temperatures bottomed out at -24F this morning (previous records:

18th was -19 in 1983 and for the 17th -15 1981 (new record for

the 17th -16). Omaha`s low this morning was -11 and Lincoln`s -12,

so these did not break the records from 1983 which were -18.

 

It could have been worse...the coldest low this morning across

the U.S. was -37 deg F at Aberdeen, SD. They also set records for

Dec. 17th and 18th.

[Money]

Chances of it verifying are slim but good model consensus of a potiental of a big winter storm around Christmas somewhere in the MW

[gosaints]

Chances of it verifying are slim but good model consensus of a potiental of a big winter storm around Christmas somewhere in the MW

Would be enough to keep me away from the inlaws. miracles like that dont even happen on christmas

[CentralNebWeather]

Would be enough to keep me away from the inlaws. miracles like that dont even happen on christmas

That's good stuff right there. Funny.

[Money]

Yeah that high is probably in the perfect spot that run