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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

hlcater

By hlcater
in East of the Rockies

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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Will be interesting.  Past experience would say a vortex of that strength is going to be tough to bother.  

I agree, and I also see a SSW event developing on the GEFS by Jan 1st near Siberia...it all depends if it pokes poleward though...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122112/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_24.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122112/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_29.png

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Jaycee
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I want it to snow as much as any of you, but this is ridiculous. Think about it, there are 3 low pressure systems at play, and we're still way out. Let alone the fact the GFS showed 40" yesterday, are

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3rd and 15 with jay cutler as qb

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

At a quick glance, the weeklies looked like the analog 1978. Big pretty Aleutian low, -EPO lors of blocking in the sweet spot and weekly snowstorms from January 23 to the end of the run. The run of th

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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Nice neg tilt trough developing on consistent runs of the Euro Day 8 near the Lakes...something to ponder on as we "ease" through this ill-timed and inevitable "pullback"...downstream ridge in SE Canada is well placed for this storm to go neg tilt.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122112/ecmwf_z500a_us_9.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Big turnaround, but that may not be the case as we head into January.  There is some evidence it will become elongated based on GEFS members and UKMET creating a cross polar flow into N.A.  We'll see.

 

@ d8-10 maps

 

JB says models a little too eager (as they always seem to be) to jump to the reloaded pattern - thinks mid-month (states 15th but where exactly didn't say) for actual return to arctic, and cites Jan '85 extreme cold wave as example of what may happen when it does.

 

Edit: After the November 2014 arctic blast, it took 30 days to see our next 32º or lower day. Let's hope we don't have to wait that long - that was horrid.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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@ d8-10 maps

 

JB says models a little too eager (as they always seem to be) to jump to the reloaded pattern - thinks mid-month (states 15th but where exactly didn't say) for actual return to arctic, and cites Jan '85 extreme cold wave as example of what may happen when it does.

 

Edit: After the November 2014 arctic blast, it took 30 days to see our next 32º or lower day. Let's hope we don't have to wait that long - that was horrid.

 

I have a feeling he is waiting for it to reload for the EC folks, bc in my humble opinion, those from I-80 on north will see a return of a wintry pattern at the start of the New Year.  Those on the EC have important variables to overcome: PNA (SE Ridge), NAO and AO.  Say, from the OV and points NW of there, this part of the nation will see the cold air fight and bleed SE first before the EC sees some excitement.

 

Even CPC see's a near normal pattern in the 6-10 day (I-80 on north)...and I didn't see this map until after I literally typed the paragraph above!  Ha!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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NYE storm still showing up on the 12z EURO with a powerful CO LOW...with a vortex near Hudson Bay, somewhat of a Greenland Block and a western N.A. Ridge...IMO, this storm will be more of a west/east storm track that doesn't cut to fast.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122112/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122112/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_11.png

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

That ridge over AK is starting to finally try to move into a better position. Really need it further east but I'm glad the retrogression pattern is finally over. There are also signs of a PDO spike coming back with water temps increasing to the south of the Baja. This may not be important until February but it's a great signal for better storms in my opinion.

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
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NYE storm still showing up on the 12z EURO with a powerful CO LOW...with a vortex near Hudson Bay, somewhat of a Greenland Block and a western N.A. Ridge...IMO, this storm will be more of a west/east storm track that doesn't cut to fast.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122112/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122112/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_11.png

Hopefully something to track as we ring in 2017.
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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

Copy and paste from one of my friends on another forum.

 

"12z Euro ensemble continued the trend of the -EPO but kept the troughing a bit farther west this run. So it kept the cold air across the northern Plains, western Canada and parts of the western US through the 5th.

 

The control run went wild with a big -EPO, hints of a -AO and a huge trough with Arctic air spilling into our area on the 4th-5th. Probably a bit early."

 

Sounds like fun to me. :-)

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

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From what I saw the long range Euro and GFS look abysmal for the Plains.  Good for the east coast though.  Looks like those guys get another big winter while we torch. 

it is very hard for the east to get a big winter while we torch.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

From what I saw the long range Euro and GFS look abysmal for the Plains. Good for the east coast though. Looks like those guys get another big winter while we torch.

Yeah. Looks awful...ly cold for everyone but the east coast and southeast. :) More cold runs to come I'm sure.

 

eps_t2anom_c_east_61.png

 

eps_t2anom_m_east_61.png

 

That mean is going to get much colder over the next 4-6 runs.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

18z GFS...caving towards the Euro for the Day 8/9 storm???

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122118/222/snku_024h.us_mw.png

Thanks for turning up the gain on your magnet..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
Posted

Yeah. Looks awful...ly cold for everyone but the east coast and southeast. :) More cold runs to come I'm sure.

 

eps_t2anom_c_east_61.png

 

eps_t2anom_m_east_61.png

 

That mean is going to get much colder over the next 4-6 runs.

I like the look of where the cold is coming from. However, my experience living in central Nebraska my entire life, says to get cold to that extreme we will need a snowpack in place. Having snow on the ground when that cold arrives would certainly add to the cold.
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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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JMA/GEFS/GEPS/EPS are all at war on trying to figure out what the pattern will be like to open the New Year.  Latest JMA Weeklies suggest a +AO/+NAO over the next 4 weeks and only allowing brief intrusions of cold into the northern tier of states from time to time.  An active storm track through the Midwest though.

 

Meanwhile, I have been paying attention to the Alaskan Ridge which is now showing up on both GEFS/EPS members that was not there just a few days ago.  The LRC suggests this to build around the New Year and lock in for a short period.  Now, will it be transient or lock in for a longer period.  My current thoughts are it will stick around for about a week into the New Year.

 

One wild card is how strong of a SSW event can take place (if it happens) near Russia/Siberia in January.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122206/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

 

 

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
Posted

Yeah. Looks awful...ly cold for everyone but the east coast and southeast. :) More cold runs to come I'm sure.

 

attachicon.gifeps_t2anom_c_east_61.png

 

attachicon.gifeps_t2anom_m_east_61.png

 

That mean is going to get much colder over the next 4-6 runs.

12Z GFS has snow coming through Nebraska on Jan. 3-4 time frame and a very cold airmass after from the Northwest.  These maps may be on to something into early 2017.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z GEFS suggesting Winter will return with a vengeance as we flip the calendar into the New Year...Canada overwhelms with extreme cold and the coldest anamolies in the northern hemisphere develop on this side of the pole.  Blocking near Alaska/Arctic are increasing every run.  Looks like a -EPO also evolves but I don't have maps for that chart.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122212/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_42.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122212/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_51.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122212/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122212/gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

 

 

 

I like the look with a trough near Hawaii and Western N.A. Ridge...things are looking better, just gotta get through this lil break in the action.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122212/gfs-ens_mslptrend_namer_21.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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Ummm, could we just lock this CFSv2 run for January please???  Coast to Coast wet and cold!  Icebox nation for the epic Inauguration!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20161222.201701.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20161222.201701.gif

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z Euro still showing the NYE storm that tracks towards the GL's...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122212/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122212/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
Posted

12z Euro still showing the NYE storm that tracks towards the GL's...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122212/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122212/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

Tom, here is the Euro hour 216 from pivotal weather also showing this storm.

euro 22.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Both GFS/EURO showing a storm system targeting Japan in a SW/NE fashion on the 26th/27th which would correlate into the central CONUS Jan 2nd-6th.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_fe_19.png

 

 

This storm then bombs out near Siberia/Western Aleutian islands/Bearing Sea by Day 6/7 time frame and will alter the entire N PAC pattern.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122212/gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_26.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122212/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_npac_8.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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12z GEFS/GEPS/JMA trying to be enthusiastic of something next Wed/Thu period for the Midwest/Lower Lakes region...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122212/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_24.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016122212/gem-ens_apcpn24_us_24.png

 

 

I don't have Euro maps, but today's run was showing a weak SLP in the central Plains...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122212/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_7.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

12z Euro still showing the NYE storm that tracks towards the GL's...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122212/ecmwf_mslpaNorm_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122212/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

 

Wait. a. minute!  This can't be correct (sarc), it's actually showing a system deepening as it heads east. That just doesn't happen anymore Tom. Please txt the EC and ask them to correct that mistake.. :P :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

12z EPS Day 6/7 showing a neg tilt trough near the Lakes...this potential system may have some clout...we shall see...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016122212/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

 

Some of the Op runs are pure eye-candy for SWMI with strengthening SLP pulling in very cold 850's with a nice vector for Lehs >>> LES for additional amounts. But, we've seen how well EC and GFS-Para have done this season. Hopeful, but after the last system faded last minute, taking a wait and see stance.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Some of the Op runs are pure eye-candy for SWMI with strengthening SLP pulling in very cold 850's with a nice vector for Lehs >>> LES for additional amounts. But, we've seen how well EC and GFS-Para have done this season. Hopeful, but after the last system faded last minute, taking a wait and see stance.

Euro seems to be hitting it's stride of late, esp at 500mb in the extended range.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

I think that 18z GFS run was the most "blocky" run yet so far this season...I'm becoming more optimistic the opening week of January is going to be fun from what I'm seeing over the past week.  GEFS will prob continue with the interesting look in the extended.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

January 1st-4th is lining up very well with the LRC's version back on Nov 1st-4th when the record early split of the PV happened.  If the GFS is right, and blocking develops, could be one heckova open to the New Year!  #PVMakingAnotherVisit...just need the snow to come with it...

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