December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

FWIW, the 12z 4km WRF doesn't have much of a CZ look to it through tonight. Still an area of 2-4 inches in Snohomish county though.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d3/ww_msnow24.24.0000.gif

Somebody is feeding the WRF crack this morning.  That is showing close to TWO FEET of snow here this afternoon.  It is currently clear here. 

[TT-SEA]

Snowing hard in North Bend... live video.  

 

http://146.129.248.180/northbend.html

[Timmy]

Dumping here may end up with 4" after this shower

[Phil]

Clown range 12z GFS is gonna try something.

Does the trick, though verbatim it'd probably be a "grand finale" of sorts as the PV recouples over the pole.

[HighlandExperience]

Snow globe out there.... at least 2 inches in the last 90 minutes.

Lucky

[MossMan]

FWIW, the 12z 4km WRF doesn't have much of a CZ look to it through tonight. Still an area of 2-4 inches in Snohomish county though.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d3/ww_msnow24.24.0000.gif

Looks good for my house! Honestly if I only even just get an inch it should stick around the majority of the week!

[FroYoBro]

The next hour would have been money for the Portland area if it was a little colder. A strong band about to move through. 

[stuffradio]

The Canadians are upgrading the supercomputer so we have a higher res model!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supercomputer-enivronment-canada-430-million-1.3878726

[TT-SEA]

Nice shot there. Any idea what elevation that cam is at?

500 feet.

[MossMan]

Not really seeing any CZ looks on any of the models this morning.......

That small bullseye straight across from Camano Island is directly over my house. I'm good with that!

[Guest Sounder]

All snow here on the lower side of Capitol Hill fwiw. Only sticking to grass though.

 

Can see Fremont and Queen Anne in the distance from my balcony and there are lots of white rooftops.

[FroYoBro]

At school in Beaverton near highway 26. This band has a lot of snowflakes in it. Probably like 63.4% snow right now. 

[Gradient Keeper]

3rd GFS run in a row showing some kind of high impact Ice/Snow potential day 9-10....

 

In the short term, PDX looks to get a lot of snow/ice Wednesday night-Thursday. OH and the east wind. OTH-GEG -25mb on the WRF. Highest I have ever seen. That's nothing though in the long range it is -33mb. Imagine how damaging that would be.

[Guest happ]

Been DUMPING snow for almost an hour now and this is the view from our 6th floor deck in West Seattle looking Northeast towards DT Seattle 

 

Is this area close to the Sound? Any idea of elevation?

[Jbolin]

At school in Beaverton near highway 26. This band has a lot of snowflakes in it. Probably like 63.4% snow right now. 

That is a really specific percentage

[Jbolin]

Fail

[Jbolin]

Is this area close to the Sound? Any idea of elevation?

We live on the highest point in W. Sea at 532 ft ASL and you factor in another 50 ft because of our top floor and just under 600'

 

And we're only about a 5 min drive to Alki Beach 

[Geos]

Snow started sticking to the trees as I left to go out this morning in north Kirkland. Got down to the lower elevations by 405 and it was more of a mix.

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z GFS looks great throughout it's run. First, it shows the over-running event starting to hit parts of the Willamette Valley at Wednesday 10pm. PDX Metro should start to see snow shortly after this time period. Then an Arctic Blast with a massive over-running event comes around day 10. Then a huge reload comes at day 12! Majestic run to say the least!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120512/066/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120512/216/850th.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120512/234/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120512/240/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120512/252/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120512/264/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120512/288/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120512/300/850th.us_nw.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Now watch the 12z Euro bounce back to epicness!

Nope

[Guest happ]

We live on the highest point in W. Sea at 532 ft ASL and you factor in another 50 ft because of our top floor and just under 600'

 

And we're only about a 5 min drive to Alki Beach 

 

Are there reports of snow at sea level?

[Perturbed Member]

Absolutely dumping snow here in Hillsboro. Heavy shower pushed snow level pretty low.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 5-10+ 500mb anomalies look quite good. Ridge/block 155-160 W. Would like to see a stronger SE ridge. Overwhelming signal for persistent blocking. High potential day 6-10.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Composite Analogs

Day 6-10, 8-14

Incredibly epic and potential historic pattern. Correlation skill level score improving 91%, 94%. It's coming.

 

 

Day 6-10

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

 

 

 

Day 8-14

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

[Deweydog]

Won't you take me to... chunky (rain) town?

[Jbolin]

Are there reports of snow at sea level?

Yes, DT, Rainier valley, even along the waterfront albeit briefly 

[MossMan]

Nope

It's already out?

[BLI snowman]

Getting into that 34 degree slop territory. Thank god.

[Heavy Snow]

12z GFS Composite Analogs

Day 6-10, 8-14

Incredibly epic and potential historic pattern. Correlation skill level score improving 91%, 94%. It's coming.

 

 

Day 6-10

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

 

 

 

Day 8-14

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

 

Wow, it's amazing the correlation scores keep increasing!

[MikeInEverett]

Have had light snow/flurries here for a few hours now even though radar shows nothing, not much accumulation thought just some slush.

[MossMan]

12z GFS Composite Analogs

Day 6-10, 8-14

Incredibly epic and potential historic pattern. Correlation skill level score improving 91%, 94%. It's coming.

 

 

Day 6-10

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

 

 

 

Day 8-14

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

such a promising pattern!

Snow starting to stick to cats and grass now.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF

Begins..... NOW

 

Here we go......... Cold ahead? Bitter? or not quite

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty big ensemble improvement...

[Jbolin]

Getting into that 34 degree slop territory. Thank god.

I think we should from now on refer to SLOP as " SNOP "

[Jbolin]

Those cats must be incredibly cold! 

That's one hell of a meme

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z GEM has a ton of potential at day 10. It looks ready to drop an Arctic Blast over the PNW after day 10.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120512/240/500h_anom.na.png

[MossMan]

Those cats must be incredibly cold!

Ha! Oops...cats are inside and warm, the cars are cold and snow covered now! Snowing hard!

[Jbolin]

Ha! Oops...cats are inside and warm, the cars are cold and snow covered now! Snowing hard!

That's some funny right there 

[Heavy Snow]

 

12z ECMWF

Begins..... NOW

 

Here we go......... Cold ahead? Bitter? or not quite

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0

 

 

I'm hoping for bitter cold. Bring it KING EURO!

[Deweydog]

Snow is accumulating rapidly here in the puddles and gutters.