December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Cold air is going to scour out pretty fast down here... 

 

gfs_T850_nwus_12.png

 

It's already been snowing for 8+ hours at that point for some people.

[The Swamp]

Yeah... looks UGLY!!! I would say preparing for super extended power outages is highly recommended.

I don't think it unfolds like that. No ice storm. The southerly flow is going to scour out the cold fast and I doubt that low pulls much cold air through to lead to icing. Guess we'll see soon.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's already been snowing for 8+ hours at that point for some people.

Even worse!  That much snow and rain or freezing rain on top of that is not good.  I do feel the warm up will be quite quick in the southern sound.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think there is much of a chance of a crippling ice storm west of I-205. Just not cold enough air to draw from east side, or cold enough starting points.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I don't think it unfolds like that. No ice storm. The southerly flow is going to scour out the cold fast and I doubt that low pulls much cold air through to lead to icing. Guess we'll see soon.

I was Not correlating that to here... Portland Gorge area..

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cold air is going to scour out pretty fast down here... Freezing rain? Nope it will scour out slower than modeled.

 

gfs_T850_nwus_12.png

[crf450ish]

How much snow does stuffradio have? I hope he's buried.

[Heavy Snow]

[crf450ish]

Cold air is going to scour out pretty fast down here... Freezing rain?

 

gfs_T850_nwus_12.png

I've had some serious memorable experiences with freezing rain. Riding quads down closed highways. Oh yeah. Fun times.

[FroYoBro]

It is raining, but some of the rain drops are slightly thicker than the average rain drop. 

[Gradient Keeper]

What kind of winds would that bring to PDX?

50mph easily, IF we see -25mb or so.

[chopper 918]

50mph easily, IF we see -25mb or so.

 

WOW!  What about westside metro, say Beaverton?

[The Swamp]

I was Not correlating that to here... Portland Gorge area..

I don't think it happens there either.

[luvssnow_spokane]

hmmm Getting interesting @ hour 108 ... Maybe not..

 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I don't think it happens there either.

Nothing happens there. You probably live in one of the most snowless spots in this great nation

[Goducks09]

Looks like the GFS trending towards the nightmare ice storm scenario for PDX. Holy **** the OTH-GEG gradient peaks at -27mb!

 

Rob, is it possible that the strong cold air from the Gorge thickens up the cold layer enough in PDX to avoid the ice storm and keep us all as snow?  Wishful thinking on my part, but also an honest question. 

[EA_TTD]

I don't think it happens there either.

We'll post pictures on Thursday.  This is a classic setup for us in the gorge.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I don't think it happens there either.

Nothing happens there. You probably live in one of the most snowless spots in this great nation.

[HighlandExperience]

Nothing happens there. You probably live in one of the most snowless spots in this great nation

They have a casino with washed up old people.

[Front Ranger]

I remember in Dec 2005, Puyallup kicked everyone else's a**. Very memorable.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I've had some serious memorable experiences with freezing rain. Riding quads down closed highways. Oh yeah. Fun times.

Sounds fun!!!

[Heavy Snow]

hmmm Getting interesting @ hour 108 ... Maybe not..

 

 

gfs_T850_namer_19.png

Hang onto your seats!

[luvssnow_spokane]

We'll post pictures on Thursday.  This is a classic setup for us in the gorge.

Agreed... Super classic... could be icemaggeddon With destructive wind... Bad!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I remember in Dec 2005, Puyallup kicked everyone else's a**. Very memorable.

I do.... then I moved into the area in 2006 and is has been s**t ever since. Blame me... Sorry!

[bainbridgekid]

At least SEA pulled off a sub 40 degree high.

[Front Ranger]

0z has the AK block a bit more disconnected from the offshore ridge. May not get as cold.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z GFS looks to be quite progressive... A bit more than previous runs. Not looking good.

[Deweydog]

Rob, is it possible that the strong cold air from the Gorge thickens up the cold layer enough in PDX to avoid the ice storm and keep us all as snow? Wishful thinking on my part, but also an honest question.

I'll take a stab at it. Generally the gorge can't prolong a change over as mid level warming takes place. In fact, as looks to be the case with this event, mid level warming may occur faster near the gorge with the warm tongue while areas along the east slopes of the coast range stay colder thanks to cold air damming.

[Front Ranger]

At least SEA pulled off a sub 40 degree high.

 

Only a trace of snowfall, though. Disappointing.

[FroYoBro]

I'll take a stab at it. Generally the gorge can't prolong a change over as mid level warming takes place. In fact, as looks to be the case with this event, mid level warming may occur faster near the gorge with the warm tongue while areas along the east slopes of the coast range stay colder thanks to cold air damming.

I have definitely noticed that in some of the models. Forest Grove should do well like they always do. 

[Goducks09]

I'll take a stab at it. Generally the gorge can't prolong a change over as mid level warming takes place. In fact, as looks to be the case with this event, mid level warming may occur faster near the gorge with the warm tongue while areas along the east slopes of the coast range stay colder thanks to cold air damming.

 

Thank you, sir.  That is helpful!

[Perturbed Member]

It is basically just an online insane asylum. 

 

This made me chuckle, I had pretty much the same thought. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some people think the gorge is magic, but it's not. See Dewey's analysis. 

[GHweatherChris]

Only a trace of snowfall, though. Disappointing.

And that "trace" caused a 3 hour delay for our flight to Anaheim this morning due to Delta not having their deicing equipment ready to, this is after Alaska cancelled flights last night for this morning just incl case.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Some people think the gorge is magic, but it's not. See Dewey's analysis. 

I used to hunt unicorns and trolls there so I do not know what you're talking about!  <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_huh.png" alt=":huh:">

[EA_TTD]

Some people think the gorge is magic, but it's not. See Dewey's analysis. 

Overstated on the magic as our best snowstorms come from the east winds; we gotta have them for top-tier winter weather.  However, I live here and the gorge is not 7,000 feet tall so we are susceptible to mid-level warming which makes him, as you say, exactly right.

[crf450ish]

Anyone care to take a stab at an analysis for my area? I know its far more favorable over here therefore I have zero room to even ask for an analysis. However, its the details that intrigue me. Ive read the NWS discussion 100 times the last 36-48 hours. The analysis' given here seem to make more sense to me. Thanks. 

[Perturbed Member]

I'll take a stab at it. Generally the gorge can't prolong a change over as mid level warming takes place. In fact, as looks to be the case with this event, mid level warming may occur faster near the gorge with the warm tongue while areas along the east slopes of the coast range stay colder thanks to cold air damming.

 

I'm a bit concerned that the mid level warms up so quickly with that relatively strong low modeled by the GFS that we won't even get a half decent amount of snow. It  indicates  925mb temps skyrocketing as that low approaches. Ugh. 

[Front Ranger]

What the hell is wrong with BLI these days? They hit 40.

[dairyd]

Maybe there won't be any outflow? I think there will be once the low digs south of the area. Guess we'll find out in the next 12 hours.

 

There's definitely an outflow, wind has been creeping up all afternoon.  Just got in from the wind field, A steady 10-15 not super gusty yet but reading the stations up the valley it looks like it is spooling up. I see the pressure is starting to climb again in cywl.  I was hoping for a calm night.