December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

This place is comedy

 

I think everyone on here needs medication to tell you the truth.

[MossMan]

I am not saying this won't happen, just saying that we can't just discount models because we don't like what they say.

Yes we can...and we will!

[snow_wizard]

I have never noticed a warm bias on the GFS

 

It mostly around day 4 or 5 when we are dealing with offshore ridging.  It usually sees it well beyond that and before that, but anything that happens in that time frame is often warm biased.  I've mentioned it many times on here.

[crf450ish]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cle Elum looks cool

[MossMan]

I think everyone on here needs medication to tell you the truth.

[crf450ish]

If I remember right the models had a general handle on the pattern in the short range, but ended up with horrible consistency and continuity issues along with large differences when the 'event' got within 24-72 hours.

 

Thogh I think that was mainly due to such marginal conditions, for the most part.

Details are almost always impossible to pinpoint. General ideas are a given.

[Bryant]

I have never noticed a warm bias on the GFS

Tell yourself the GFS is cold biased... does that help?

[Deweydog]

I have never noticed a warm bias on the GFS

Yeah, this has been a talking point the last few years but I've never really seen it worth being called out as an Achilles heel. The biggest difference with the GFS to me has been with regard to terrain. It's no longer completely off the mark 3-7 days out with continental air advancement south and west. It's less erratic, so maybe people were just used to what was an inevitable slowing/warming within 72 hours or so.

[snow drift]

I hope to God it isn't another January with a ridge parked over us. That does seems to be a very stable pattern though.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble mean has everything shifted west of the operational in the 6 to 10 day period. No real shock there. We're going to be fine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, this has been a talking point the last few years but I've never really seen it worth being called out as an Achilles heel. The biggest difference with the GFS to me has been with regard to terrain. It's no longer completely off the mark 3-7 days out with continental air advancement south and west. It's less erratic, so maybe people were just used to what was an inevitable slowing/warming within 72 hours or so.

Yeah I have heard the chatter just haven't noticed it myself.

[snow_wizard]

Cle Elum looks cool

I figured they would have a nice bunch of snow there.

[Timmy]

I find it interesting people, not just on here, that tend to be optimistic to a fault are the ones telling everyone to calm down. Then again I guess it makes sense... I would just have to believe they are sitting at thier computers sweating bullets until the next positive (or something they can spin positive) data comes out.

[Bryant]

I find it interesting people, not just on here, that tend to be optimistic to a fault are the ones telling everyone to calm down. Then again I guess it makes sense... I would just have to believe they are sitting at thier computers sweating bullets until the next positive (or something they can spin positive) data comes out.

Nah, you're just being extra negative

[Timmy]

I have never noticed a warm bias on the GFS

That warm bias has become a buzzword like "polar vortex" did a couple years ago (to the mainstream though).

[Timmy]

Nah, you're just being extra negative

hey I would gladly admit that if it turns out to be true. But currently, the trend is not our friend if you like highs below freezing, and copious amounts of snow potential. Still time for things to turn around, or get worse.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is showing snow for the East Puget Sound Lowlands on Sunday. 1 to 2 inches for most. It usually underdoes precip in these cases.

[BLI snowman]

The GFS ensemble mean has everything shifted west of the operational in the 6 to 10 day period. No real shock there. We're going to be fine.

May come down to 100 miles or so of longitude which could determine whether we have a great event or merely a run-of-the-mill thing. It wouldn't take a huge shift on the GFS to see the former, but the larger scale trend is concerning at this point.

[Gradient Keeper]

The GFS ensemble mean has everything shifted west of the operational in the 6 to 10 day period. No real shock there. We're going to be fine.

Yeah, GEFS Surface Temp/850mb anomaly day 6-11 certainly colder than 18z.

[snow_wizard]

hey I would gladly admit that if it turns out to be true. But currently, the trend is not our friend if you like highs below freezing, and copious amounts of snow potential. Still time for things to turn around, or get worse.

You're only basing this on one model.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, GEFS Surface Temp/850mb anomaly day 6-11 certainly colder than 18z.

That combined with the rock solid Euro ensemble...I'm good.

[snow drift]

That warm bias has become a buzzword like "polar vortex" did a couple years ago (to the mainstream though).

I would love to see the Polar Vortex perched over the PNW one of these days.

[Bryant]

hey I would gladly admit that if it turns out to be true. But currently, the trend is not our friend if you like highs below freezing, and copious amounts of snow potential. Still time for things to turn around, or get worse.

Earlier your main focus was on the worse though. Felt like you and Andrew were texting each other the next negative thing you were going to say

[snow_wizard]

Earlier your main focus was on the worse though. Felt like you and Andrew were texting each other the next negative thing you were going to say

It makes zero sense. Usually everyone is so quick to point out what an awful model the GFS is when it shows something good.

[Deweydog]

I don't know what would be more beneficial at this point, better model runs or better dominion and control over how people feel about model runs?

[Timmy]

Earlier your main focus was on the worse though. Felt like you and Andrew were texting each other the next negative thing you were going to say

I guess it's my tendency to play devils advocate when people are being overly optimistic or unrealistic. I like to bring people down to earth, sorry if that comes off as negative but it is a part of opinionated discussion.

[Timmy]

It makes zero sense. Usually everyone is so quick to point out what an awful model the GFS is when it shows something good.

it makes complete sense when the same people eager to throw out the gfs are the ones eager to hold on to it when it is the only model showing something good.

[Bryant]

I don't know what would be more beneficial at this point, better model runs or better dominion and control over how people feel about model runs?

If the former comes together, then the latter should as well. At least you'd hope.

[Gradient Keeper]

Due to the waffling GFS runs I've had to post this in my FB group. Lol

 

If for some unforeseen reason the next 2 days the models turn unfavorable, it is what it is. It happens. Don't let it get to you or your emotions. Model riding is one thing, and most of us are doing it, but the constant weenie fests, freaking out, being negative, it's all so very annoying and not enjoyable. Of course we all want Cold/Snow and it would be a bummer if this did not pan out. If you get upset or emotionally distressed over model riding I suggest you go hug a loved one, even if it's a stuffed animal. It'll be okay, or just simply take a break. Thank you.

[snow_wizard]

I guess it's my tendency to play devils advocate when people are being overly optimistic or unrealistic. I like to bring people down to earth, sorry if that comes off as negative but it is a part of opinionated discussion.

You have to keep in mind the CPC just today made about the coldest 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks I've ever seen for this area. They aren't wish casting. If you'll recall I made the call for a New Years cold wave days ago.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The GFS isn't even bad.

 

EDIT: At least in the believable range. I'm really not worried about it.

There is a pattern with three runs in a row now of shoving that ridge to close. It is something that historically happens more than the epic event you want. People have a right to be concerned. Not saying it will happen but I get it. Trending the wrong way feels ominous because history shows us that often those little incremental runs we call outliers or waffling end up being the trend setters we try to ignore.

[chopper 918]

Rob, what's your FB group called and is it open?

[ShawniganLake]

Ensemble looks okay, slightly improved. Crisis averted.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I find it interesting people, not just on here, that tend to be optimistic to a fault are the ones telling everyone to calm down. Then again I guess it makes sense... I would just have to believe they are sitting at thier computers sweating bullets until the next positive (or something they can spin positive) data comes out.

And the ones who have had legendary meltdowns.

[Timmy]

Rob, what's your FB group called and is it open?

Pdx wx analysis

[Gradient Keeper]

Rob, what's your FB group called and is it open?

PDX WX Analysis

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/pdx.wx.analysis

[snow_wizard]

There is a pattern with three runs in a row now of shoving that ridge to close. It is something that historically happens more than the epic event you want. People have a right to be concerned. Not saying it will happen but I get it. Trending the wrong way.

On one model.

[Deweydog]

Jim will decide when/if it's okay to freak the **** out. Until then take it out on your spouse/significant other/dog.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pdx wx analysis

AH my bad, I hadn't seen you already posted it. Thanks.