December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

at least 3 in a row of progressively worse runs.

Just the geefus.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run was indeed terrible. I d love to hear Tim s thoughts

[snow_wizard]

Still a great looking pattern IMO. Keep in mind the ECMWF ensemble has been rock solid on this and it says the GFS isn't cold enough in the 6 to 9 day period. At face value we still get snow in the Seattle area and it gets clear and cold afterward. The really potential is during week two when moisture starts to come into play again and we get a shot at some hard core cold.

[Perturbed Member]

Order should be restored here if the Euro sticks to its guns I think. Hoping the GFS is the outlier. 

[snow_wizard]

This run was indeed terrible. I d love to hear Tim s thoughts

Better than anything we've seen in January in years. How is that terrible?

[snow_wizard]

Order should be restored here if the Euro sticks to its guns I think. Hoping the GFS is the outlier.

The GFS isn't even bad.

 

EDIT: At least in the believable range. I'm really not worried about it.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z Euro OP will be brutal cold. - Gorton's Fisherman

[chopper 918]

GO EURO!!

[EA_TTD]

This run was indeed terrible. I d love to hear Tim s thoughts

[HighlandExperience]

I will be sad if we have to endure another January of fake cold with heavy fog featuring pollution from China for 3 weeks. 

[Gradient Keeper]

http://i.imgur.com/IUJajnj.png

[Perturbed Member]

The GFS isn't even bad.

 

EDIT: At least in the believable range. I'm really not worried about it.

 

I just don't like it slowly pushing things a bit more east each run. We've seen it 3 times in a row. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Better than anything we've seen in January in years. How is that terrible?

Looks about along the lines of January 2013 or early January 2011 on the GFS

[Trainwreck]

To be honest, January isn't that big of a deal Jim. It's in he heart of winter I get that but for it to be cold and snowy during the holidays is bar none the best weather I the world. December is where it's at if u were to ask me. And what a great December it was. If it was like this every year I'd be a happy camper. January is a close number 2 though. Fact is the days are getting longer and the holidays are over, but bring on the cold and snow!!

[crf450ish]

 

 

This run was indeed terrible. I d love to hear Tim s thoughts

They see me trollin'..... they hatin'..... patrollin' and tryna catch me ridin' dirty...

[Deweydog]

The GFS shows us things we don't want to happen.

 

-Phil

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Gem was great

[Deweydog]

The Gem was great

Chilly.

[snow_wizard]

I just don't like it slowly pushing things a bit more east each run. We've seen it 3 times in a row. 

 

As I've said the ECMWF ensemble has led the way on this and it says the GFS is nuts.  No way the pattern evolves like this run shows.  I think it puts way too much cold in the east next week.  A lot of suspicious things being shown after that.

[Gradient Keeper]

It appears to be the main differences with the past 3-4 GFS runs in comparison to its colder runs are the cut-off low is 200-400 miles further east, the Hudson's Bay vortex further east, is not phased with the arctic trough, somewhat weaker BC Slider, and Andrew jinxing things.

[Heavy Snow]

Here are the 00z GFS, GEM and UKMET all at day 6. GFS is well east, while the GEM which was cold is more west. The UKMET which I thought looked like the GEM looks even better. If the UKMET verifies, it would be bitter cold.

 

http://i.imgur.com/VQYvCB4.png

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  Did anyone see the 6 to 10 day outlook map today?  Incredible to say the least.  People need to learn to not get so hung up on one run of one model.

 

 

[BLI snowman]

As I've said the ECMWF ensemble has led the way on this and it says the GFS is nuts. No way the pattern evolves like this run shows. I think it puts way too much cold in the east next week. A lot of suspicious things being shown after that.

Cold air going east of the Rockies does indeed seem rather far-fetched.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow!  Did anyone see the 6 to 10 day outlook map today?  Incredible to say the least.  People need to learn to not get so hung up on one run of one model.

8-14 Day is even better.

 

Day 6-10 5 out of 5 confidence

 

Day 8-15 4 out of 5 confidence

Seems real promising like a lock, but yeah....

[Timmy]

Wow!  Did anyone see the 6 to 10 day outlook map today?  Incredible to say the least.  People need to learn to not get so hung up on one run of one model.

*at least 3 runs of the gfs actually. That map should be of no surprise to any of us watching models the last several days. A high probability of below normal temps has been a given

[The Swamp]

Wow! Did anyone see the 6 to 10 day outlook map today? Incredible to say the least. People need to learn to not get so hung up on one run of one model.

Someone went wild at NWS with a purple crayon out west but doesn't guarantee anything.

[snow_wizard]

The problem could be the critical part of this is happening during the period the GFS has a well known...at least to some...warm bias for this region.  For some reason the 4 to 6 day period has seen a real problem with that in some cases.  If that period goes wrong it sets up the rest of the run to fail.

[snow_wizard]

Cold air going east of the Rockies does indeed seem rather far-fetched.

 

 

Of course some will go east, but the best model known to man shows the west much colder than the 0z GFS.   I'm going with the ECMWF ensemble for now.  It's got the highest proven accuracy.

[Heavy Snow]

They say that the UKMET and EURO always seem to mirror each other. If that's the case, high probability the 00z EURO shows its coldest run to date.

[snow_wizard]

8-14 Day is even better.

 

Day 6-10 5 out of 5 confidence

 

Day 8-15 4 out of 5 confidence

Seems real promising like a lock, but yeah....

 

I really think this GFS run will be a fluke when all is said and done.

[Gradient Keeper]

For what it's worth($2.42) the 00z GEFS Surface Temp anomaly is a bit colder than 18z and suggest that the Op MIGHT have been somewhat of an outlier. We'll see....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016122800/gfs-ens_T2ma_wus_31.png

[Deweydog]

The problem could be the critical part of this is happening during the period the GFS has a well known...at least to some...warm bias for this region. For some reason the 4 to 6 day period has seen a real problem with that in some cases. If that period goes wrong it sets up the rest of the run to fail.

The GFS's current divergence from everyone else begins with the first, splitting shortwave which is less than three days out.

[Bryant]

This place is comedy

[EA_TTD]

Wow!  Did anyone see the 6 to 10 day outlook map today?  Incredible to say the least.  People need to learn to not get so hung up on one run of one model.

As Chris Collinsworth would say, you can't draw it up any better than that Al.

[snow_wizard]

For what it's worth($2.42) the 00z GEFS Surface Temp anomaly is a bit colder than 18z and suggest that the Op MIGHT have been somewhat of an outlier. We'll see....

 

 

A bit of an understatement?

[snow drift]

The 00z ECMWF will be telling. Does it hold its ground or cave to the gfs?

[snow_wizard]

The GFS's current divergence from everyone else begins with the first, splitting shortwave which is less than three days out.

 

 

The GFS was actually due for a brain fart.  I'm still 90% on this.

[crf450ish]

Going to sound like a real loon here, but didn't we have the same model floppyness leading up the December warning shots? And in the end most people (sorry luvsnow and snow_wiz) received satisfactory goods?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have never noticed a warm bias on the GFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am not saying this won't happen, just saying that we can't just discount models because we don't like what they say.