December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Looks to be moving toward the gfs at least compared to last nights euro run.

How?

[Jesse]

Looks to be moving toward the gfs at least compared to last nights euro run.

Good job bringing you back down to earth.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks to be moving toward the gfs at least compared to last nights euro run.

Uh oh!

[Timmy]

How?

ridge tilt to the east.

[snow_wizard]

This run really slams the Arctic air in here.  Looks really cold by late Saturday now in the Seattle area.  The precip maps show snow.

[ShawniganLake]

As per usual, the satisfaction level of this will likely be determined by snow distribution preceding it. A little more over water would look to be helpful.

[Jesse]

ridge tilt to the east.

We want that. Are you sure you know what to be looking for?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy]

I know Andrew mentioned this on an fb group. But a lot of this hinges on the cut off low position. Isn't the euro notorious for mishandling those?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah euro looks great

[snow_wizard]

No way to say this Euro run is bad.

[BLI snowman]

How did our military's ensembles look going into those though?

I read that they often exaggerated the UHI for PDX back in those days. They were ahead of their time.

[stuffradio]

America is off on its own with this one. Sort of like the early stages of World Wars I and II.

Except Canada was first on the German front.

[Phil]

ridge tilt to the east.

The first wavebreak does overturn faster this run.

[Deweydog]

ridge tilt to the east.

Ridge is actually less positively tilted at 144 hours. It's not quite as cold as last night's 00z but it's no GFS.

[Phil]

We want that. Are you sure you know what to be looking for?

Depends on the latitude. This run might not get quite as cold but should deliver more moisture for sure.

[Timmy]

We want that. Are you sure you know what to be looking for?

Not always... but I thought the gfs was doing it too much and cutting off our cold air. Then again my internet has been super slow tonight and I didn't get to follow the gfs much. Just saw what has been posted

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil please weigh in on cut off lows and euro.

[Jesse]

I know Andrew mentioned this on an fb group. But a lot of this hinges on the cut off low position. Isn't the euro notorious for mishandling those?

In the long range, but it seems to generally become less of an issue in the mid range and closer.

 

The Euro was having issues with the cutoff 3-4 days ago when the beginning stages of this pattern were around day 10.

[Phil]

I know Andrew mentioned this on an fb group. But a lot of this hinges on the cut off low position. Isn't the euro notorious for mishandling those?

Tends to have a west/southwest bias w/ cutoffs. Has been an issue for as long as I can remember. Opposite issue relative to GFS (often too progressive on longwave).

[snow_wizard]

This is the best Euro run yet for snow in this area.  Showing a few inches with the Arctic front.  Yes!!

[Jesse]

Not always... but I thought the gfs was doing it too much and cutting off our cold air. Then again my internet has been super slow tonight and I didn't get to follow the gfs much. Just saw what has been posted

If you have access to the models it's a really, really good idea to look at them rather than base your opinions off of posts and analysis here. A lot of conflicting info and sometimes just outright misinformation.

[HighlandExperience]

This is the best Euro run yet for snow in this area. Showing a few inches with the Arctic front. Yes!!

Post maps for eye candy

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/168/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

This is the best Euro run yet for snow in this area. Showing a few inches with the Arctic front. Yes!!

What about my location??? (Andrew's house)

[Phil]

I'd go with a middle ground between the GFS and ECMWF.

 

Just my opinion here, but I think GFS is too progressive w/ the longwave pattern, though I also suspect the ECMWF isn't progressive enough with the trough and might be too far west with the cutoff/ULL.

[Jesse]

I'd go with a middle ground between the GFS and ECMWF.

 

Just my opinion here, but I think GFS is too progressive w/ the longwave pattern, though I also suspect the ECMWF isn't progressive enough with the trough and might be too far west with the cutoff/ULL.

Seems reasonable.

[snow_wizard]

Day 7

 

 

 

TOTALLY different than the GFS.  One of these times I'm going to be wrong, but I'm on a good roll.

[Heavy Snow]

[Timmy]

If you have access to the models it's a really, really good idea to look at them rather than base your opinions off of posts and analysis here. A lot of conflicting info and sometimes just outright misinformation.

Easy poncho. By posts I mean, posted maps, not written posts.

[Phil]

TOTALLY different than the GFS. One of these times I'm going to be wrong, but I'm on a good roll.

Careful. I spiked the football back in early December, and things went a bit haywire right afterwards.

[Heavy Snow]

This is the best Euro run yet for snow in this area. Showing a few inches with the Arctic front. Yes!!

Yeah, the NWS referred to this Arctic Front as "large". There should be solid snowcover for everybody going into the Arctic Blast.

[Bryant]

What about my location??? (Andrew's house)

I feel as though if we all sat around a campfire and BS'd, that a lot of people's personalities would vary from their online persona. You however, I believe would still crack jokes and be a smart a**

[snow_wizard]

Post maps for eye candy

 

The close up maps are annoying slow to update.  I looked at the larger area map and it looks good.  I will post a map when the close up is updated.  

 

It seems that even though the Euro is faster with the cold it keeps moisture around long enough to dump some snow.  These things are always so complicate dto forecast.

[Timmy]

TOTALLY different than the GFS.  One of these times I'm going to be wrong, but I'm on a good roll.

looks like a degree or two (at 850mb) warmer than previous couple runs though. Still a good run though. But like a said yesterday regarding the gfs(and got a ton of crap for), not something you want to see continue.

[Gradient Keeper]

The ridge is already at the date line about to cross over to 179 W south of the Aleutians. You can see it on IR Loop. I believe the Euro through day 4 is a lock with the block/handling of cut-off low. I also believe there is a good possibility 12z tomorrow shifts west again. You'll see.

[Jesse]

Easy poncho. By posts I mean, posted maps, not written posts.

People pick and choose those based on how much weenie mania they do or do not want to stir up as well.

[Phil]

looks like a degree or two (at 850mb) warmer than previous couple runs though. Still a good run though. But like a said yesterday regarding the gfs(and got a ton of crap for), not something you want to see continue.

It's a great run. Think back to 2014/15..even tonight's GFS run would be great by that winter's standards.

[Jesse]

looks like a degree or two (at 850mb) warmer than previous couple runs though. Still a good run though. But like a said yesterday regarding the gfs(and got a ton of crap for), not something you want to see continue.

I think you got more crap for implying that people are living in the clouds just because they didn't totally lose their over a few slightly less favorable GFS runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

There we go!!!!

 

http://i.imgur.com/C9U8eUh.png