December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Perhaps...but then again January is the month we can have epic / long cold waves. Obviously the January bar for this century is really low.

 

Blocking patterns in January can be pretty amazingly stubborn since it's fully in midwinter wavelength season.  Lots of examples of that of course with regards to cold. 

 

January 1985 is another interesting example of that on the ridging side. Only 0.06" of precip at PDX that month, which is a flabbergasting anomaly.

[Front Ranger]

Perhaps...but then again January is the month we can have epic / long cold waves. Obviously the January bar for this century is really low.

Would be D**n hard to limbo, for sure.

 

Good chance this turns into the longest and/or coldest January event of the century, I'll give you that.

 

The power of the jinx is really being put to test tonight.

[Front Ranger]

The Euro ensemble and control model look like something epic is setting up after day 10. The cold regroups in SW Canada, and the northern half of the NW quarter of the country with low pressure beginning to inject moisture into the picture. The control model shows wickedly cold air over southern BC.

I'm just waiting for the moment Albrecht uses "epic" in one of his discussions...

[BLI snowman]

We also haven't seen a significantly -PNA January (below -1.00) since 1972

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

I think that's going to change this winter. Guess you could say we were due.

[snow_wizard]

I almost need a cigarette after looking at the Euro ensemble.  Strong hinting of major snowfall in the mean with cold right through day 15.  The control shows a massive snow event followed by a blast of Jan 1950 type cold with a SE ridge developing.   Both strongly suggest the cold is nowhere near done at the end.

[Front Ranger]

Two more hours to get to the sexy stuff. Or the steadily eastward trending block. Either way.

It's great to see you going into full blown weenie mode. Analogs for this are mixed, but promising.

[snow_wizard]

We also haven't seen a significantly -PNA January (below -1.00) since 1972

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

I think that's going to change this winter. Guess you could say we were due.

 

Truly incredible stat.  Assuming this pans out one is left to wonder what changed.  This January curse has been incredibly long.  You could even call 1972 and 1980 kind of a last gasp of the great Januaries since they didn't quite measure up to the ones before it.

[Weather101]

By the time it actually starts snowing, it's usually just a relief and I can finally get some sleep.

Maybe I'm the only one, but I hate sleeping when it's snowing lol I wanna be out in it or watching it

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe I'm the only one, but I hate sleeping when it's snowing lol I wanna be out in it or watching it

I usually get up every hour or so to check and make sure it's still snowing.

[Front Ranger]

I almost need a cigarette after looking at the Euro ensemble. Strong hinting of major snowfall in the mean with cold right through day 15. The control shows a massive snow event followed by a blast of Jan 1950 type cold with a SE ridge developing. Both strongly suggest the cold is nowhere near done at the end.

Hopefully this weekend kicks things off on the right foot.

 

I'm busy with family in CA this week, so haven't had a chance to really look at the models much. Certainly makes following this thread a bit different, since I'm going off various interpretations without any visual clue for myself. I don't know how some of you do that all the time, would drive me nuts.

[Heavy Snow]

I almost need a cigarette after looking at the Euro ensemble.  Strong hinting of major snowfall in the mean with cold right through day 15.  The control shows a massive snow event followed by a blast of Jan 1950 type cold with a SE ridge developing.   Both strongly suggest the cold is nowhere near done at the end.

 

I just saw it and you're not kidding! If there is ever a time to have another January 1950 or 1969 type month, now is the time. We need to take advantage of is unbelievable opportunity.

[Front Ranger]

I just saw it and you're not kidding! If there is ever a time to have another January 1950 or 1969 type month, now is the time. We need to take advantage of is unbelievable opportunity.

If you don't already, you should write infomercials.

[Weather101]

I usually get up every hour or so to check and make sure it's still snowing.

That's exactly what I do..

[Heavy Snow]

If you don't already, you should write infomercials.

 

Thanks, I always try to sell my posts that way to give it more meaning.

[Perturbed Member]

06Z GFS ABOUT TO INITIALIZE! 

[Gradient Keeper]

❄ ❄ Happy Holidays ❄ ❄

Medford NWS Forecast Discussion

Excerpt from discussion comparing upcoming pattern potential to December 2013, 1972(Prolific Blast/Snow)

 

The pattern in the Pacific Northwest is about to undergo significant changes in the next 6-10 days. Model guidance is showing remarkable agreement with the development of a strong ridge over the northeast Pacific this weekend, which will extend all the way into Alaska. With a deep upper low anchored near Hudson Bay, this pattern favors troughing to develop over the Pacific Northwest. It is these patterns which often lead to our most significant Arctic outbreaks - most recently in early December 2013 and most notably in early December 1972. The previous shift has a nice detailed discussion below of what is expected late this weekend into next week. The specifics will likely change over the coming days, but the pattern certainly favors a turn toward much colder weather around the first week of the New Year along with the opportunity for low-elevation snow.

-Spilde

[Gradient Keeper]

 

❄ ❄ Happy Holidays ❄ ❄

Medford NWS Forecast Discussion

Excerpt from discussion comparing upcoming pattern potential to December 2013, 1972(Prolific Blast/Snow)

 

The pattern in the Pacific Northwest is about to undergo significant changes in the next 6-10 days. Model guidance is showing remarkable agreement with the development of a strong ridge over the northeast Pacific this weekend, which will extend all the way into Alaska. With a deep upper low anchored near Hudson Bay, this pattern favors troughing to develop over the Pacific Northwest. It is these patterns which often lead to our most significant Arctic outbreaks - most recently in early December 2013 and most notably in early December 1972. The previous shift has a nice detailed discussion below of what is expected late this weekend into next week. The specifics will likely change over the coming days, but the pattern certainly favors a turn toward much colder weather around the first week of the New Year along with the opportunity for low-elevation snow.

-Spilde

 

I would say the past several 00z Euro OP/EPS seems to indicate that kind of blast/magnitude is possible.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS

Day 1

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122806/024/500h_anom.na.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Even jaya is waiting for the 06z!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

God we all are nuts lol. Staying up for the 6 hahahaha.

[Gradient Keeper]

SO weird. Comparing 6z, 00z GFS to 00z Euro the entire pattern every feature from the Aleutians to the east coast to Greenland is shifted east. It makes no sense. An initialization problem with GFS Op?

 

Day 2

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122806/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Yep. It's the GFS Op. I checked at HR 0 initialization GFS to Euro and everything is shifted east at HR 0 on GFS. Why is my question.

 

 

Pretty sure this means the GFS Op is having serious feedback/continuity issues and may as well be discarded.

[BLI snowman]

Yep. It's the GFS Op. I checked at HR 0 initialization GFS to Euro and everything is shifted east at HR 0 on GFS. Why is my question.

 

It's noticeably further east than the 06z NAM as well. Seems to be doing its own thing still.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's noticeably further east than the 06z NAM as well. Seems to be doing its own thing still.

Right, but why upon initialization ? I'd think at HR 0 the GFS/ECMWF should be nearly mirroring each other in some aspects.

[BLI snowman]

Right, but why upon initialization ? I'd think at HR 0 the GFS/ECMWF should be nearly mirroring each other in some aspects.

 

No clue, unless there's a satellite issue or corrupt data.

 

Fair to say the GFS is a bit of an outlier with the precise positioning of the big cutoff low. Which certainly impacts the Thursday shortwave trough relative to the other models, which are all a degree or two colder at all levels of the atmosphere. Unusual for such short range stuff.

[Heavy Snow]

Wow, the 00z GFS-Para just came in and it looks good. Snow with the Arctic Front then again later in the week like what the EURO was hinting at. Jumbo Block in the sweet spot with developing SE Ridge. Reload after reload.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_z500a_nhem_41.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_z500a_nhem_45.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_z500a_nhem_47.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_z500a_nhem_53.png

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS progressive bias perhaps(favoring progression with pattern)

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow, the 00z GFS-Para just came in and it looks good. Snow with the Arctic Front then again later in the week like what the EURO was hinting at. Jumbo Block in the sweet spot with developing SE Ridge. Reload after reload.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_z500a_nhem_41.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_z500a_nhem_45.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_z500a_nhem_47.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016122800/gfsp_z500a_nhem_53.png

That's a dream setup right there. Sounds like what the Medford NWS said I just posted a bit ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

No clue, unless there's a satellite issue or corrupt data.

 

Fair to say the GFS is a bit of an outlier with the precise positioning of the big cutoff low. Which certainly impacts the Thursday shortwave trough relative to the other models, which are all a degree or two colder at all levels of the atmosphere. Unusual for such short range stuff.

You might be onto something there because it isn't like block is developing in 72 hours, or moving off Asia, it's crossing the date line right now. It should be initialized the same by both models.

[Heavy Snow]

That's a dream setup right there. Sounds like what the Medford NWS said I just posted a bit ago.

 

Yeah, I guess this is what they upgraded the GFS for. The GFS progressive bias that you mentioned.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122806/096/500h_anom.na.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 looks snowy at 108

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122806/120/500h_anom.na.png

[BLI snowman]

Through 132, no significant differences from the 00z. Maybe slightly faster with the arrival of cold air but then a little warmer afterwards.

[MikeInEverett]

Lots of change in the last six runs..

 

00Z Tuesday

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122700/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_28.png

 

06Z Wednesday

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122806/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_23.png

 

Ouch.

[Gradient Keeper]

Honestly not sure why I'm even analyzing or posting this run when I know the GFS Op is pure garbage until it resolves its obvious initialization/feedback problems.

[Heavy Snow]

Honestly not sure why I'm even analyzing or posting this run when I know the GFS Op is pure garbage until it resolves its obvious initialization/feedback problems.

 

Yeah me either, time for some sleep.

[BLI snowman]

Eastward trend of the block continues into midweek, with the ridge nearly upon us by Wednesday. GFS is certainly either going to look brilliant or pathetic.

[Perturbed Member]

Honestly not sure why I'm even analyzing or posting this run when I know the GFS Op is pure garbage until it resolves its obvious initialization/feedback problems.

 

How can the initialization really be different by that much? Very odd.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern after day 8 is 5 times better than previous runs......

 

Maybe 20 times better?

 

Day 9

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122806/216/500h_anom.na.png