December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Is it farther east or farther west.  I am confused. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother has lived in Baker for over 20 years and he said it is by far the most impressive run of cold weather and snow depth he has seen. He also happens to be the editor of the newspaper and many old timers echo that sentiment. He got another 5" yesterday for a total of over 2' on the ground. They are plowing roads, trucking the berms out of town and doing it all over again

Wow a true old time winter

[Phil]

Is it farther east or farther west. I am confused.

About the same.

[Timmy]

Is it farther east or farther west.  I am confused.

 

Neither of real consequence for now. More right tilt toward the west day 4. Cut-off slightly east

[chopper 918]

Is it farther east or farther west. I am confused.

It's almost identical. The main difference is the ridge has a more positive tilt to it allowing the trough to dig more thus allowing it to be a little further west.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 - Would like to see 00z dig this further west/southwest.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Kayla]

Euro is still pretty moisture starved with the first shot of cold air it would appear.

[Phil]

The upper level PV is much stronger this run..not sure how it'll affect things yet, so far the wavetrain is fighting it pretty hard so no huge changes.

[chopper 918]

Yep...cold and dry.

[Deweydog]

Today's 12z a tad warmer than yesterday's.

[Timmy]

Ridge is definitely further east than yesterday's 12z at day 5.

[liquidsnow]

About the same.

 

The "is it further east or west?" is the new  "is the glass half empty or half full?"

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge tilts a bit too much due to slightly less amplification

[chopper 918]

850's still around -12 for most of us.

[Timmy]

Today's 12z a tad warmer than yesterday's.

no, that's not true, that's impossible!!!

[Timmy]

Ridge tilts a bit too much due to slightly less amplification

slight movement towards the gfs. Hence my reasoning not to completely throw it out.

[Phil]

The "is it further east or west?" is the new "is the glass half empty or half full?"

Have never understood the fretting over 75mi wobbles.

[chopper 918]

no, that's not true, that's impossible!!!

Maybe -12 instead of -13. Big deal.

[Phil]

Nothing is farther east. The PV aloft is just stronger so the poleward wave breaking and mass fluxes are flattened a bit.

 

Basically the ridge overturns/gets knocked down a bit, but it's mostly temporary I think, seeing the next wavebreak following on its heels. No biggie in the long run, IMO.

[chopper 918]

Anything beyond hour 120 isn't going to be completely accurate anyway. Chill.

[Kayla]

slight movement towards the gfs. Hence my reasoning not to completely throw it out.

850's are -12c at hour 120 compared to -10c on the 12z yesterday at PDX.

 

Facts are hard.

[Karl Bonner]

Day 5 - Would like to see 00z dig this further west/southwest.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/120/500h_anom.na.png

Looks slightly colder AND slightly further south than yesterday....hmmm.

[Gradient Keeper]

slight movement towards the gfs. Hence my reasoning not to completely throw it out.

What? It trended completely to the Euro through day 6. Yes, threw it out until it handled the pattern correctly as the Euro has. Now we have agreement or a blend..

 

 

Day 6

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/144/500h_anom.na.png

[BLI snowman]

Euro is still pretty moisture starved with the first shot of cold air it would appear.

 

Not looking good for more than a spotty Tr-1" for most of us. I've made my peace with it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What? It trended completely to the Euro through day 6. Yes, threw it out until it handled the pattern correctly as the Euro has. Now we have agreement or a blend..

 

 

Day 6

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/144/500h_anom.na.png

Looks like December 2013

[Karl Bonner]

YESTERDAY: 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122712/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Heavy Snow]

http://i.imgur.com/TJM6FAU.jpg

 

Cars won't do...I would recommend you folks get Siberian huskies and a sled asap. Quickly!

 

Buffalo NY?

[Timmy]

Looks like a decent pv at 144, I'm no expert on teleconnections, but Looks like our cross polar flow is getting squeezed a lot. May not bode well later on.

 

I would love to hear your thoughts on that timeframe Phil.

[chopper 918]

Not looking good for more than a spotty Tr-1" for most of us. I've made my peace with it.

Too early to make any accurate accumulation predictions.

[BLI snowman]

slight movement towards the gfs. Hence my reasoning not to completely throw it out.

 

??

 

The GFS obviously caved pretty dramatically to the Euro. It appears that that little battle is over.

 

Models are locking in now on the early next week timeframe and there likely won't be a lot of room for many dramatic changes. 12z model data all in pretty nice agreement now, as one would expect at this juncture.

[Timmy]

What? It trended completely to the Euro through day 6. Yes, threw it out until it handled the pattern correctly as the Euro has. Now we have agreement or a blend..

 

 

Day 6

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/144/500h_anom.na.png

A blend would imply that it moved to somewhat of a compromise would it not. That's all I ever said would happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX not making 26/27 high temp with east wind and major blast.

[Heavy Snow]

Nothing is farther east. The PV aloft is just stronger so the poleward wave breaking and mass fluxes are flattened a bit.

 

Basically the ridge overturns/gets knocked down a bit, but it's mostly temporary I think, seeing the next wavebreak following on its heels. No biggie in the long run, IMO.

 

Yeah, the very slight trend east might be a good thing because the retrogression of the ridge wont be too far west. That was my only concern going forward.

[snow drift]

Not looking good for more than a spotty Tr-1" for most of us. I've made my peace with it.

Our best hope is before the front passes. Downslope NNE winds always kill our chances here.

[chopper 918]

PDX not making 26/27 high temp with east wind and major blast.

Maybe colder.

[Deweydog]

Looks like December 2013

Pretty similar. Should put Flatiron's theory that timing is everything to the test.

[Kayla]

I'm all for fair and balance commentary but can we all please have the facts before hitting those square boxes?? 

 

At hour 138, the euro has PDX at -13c 850mb temps. Compare that to last night when it was -11c for the same time. Things are NOT trending warmer.

[Phil]

The PV aloft is much, much stronger after D5. Interesting, but might not mean much.

 

Looks like the Eurasian/NATL wavebreak failed, hence the PV maxes earlier in baratropic mode.

[BLI snowman]

Too early to make any accurate accumulation predictions.

 

A bit, but it'd probably take a fairly sizable 500mb shift west at this point to ignite much juice ahead of the switch to offshore flow. With the models now locking in things appear pretty set for what would likely be a fairly uneventful transition. 

[Deweydog]

no, that's not true, that's impossible!!!

You're a mess, sailor.