December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

I'm all for fair and balance commentary but can we all please have the facts before hitting those square boxes?? 

 

At hour 138, the euro has PDX at -13c 850mb temps. Compare that to last night when it was -11c for the same time. Things are NOT trending warmer.

Glad to hear, I can only compare (as stated above) to yesterday's 12z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phil]

I'm all for fair and balance commentary but can we all please have the facts before hitting those square boxes??

 

At hour 138, the euro has PDX at -13c 850mb temps. Compare that to last night when it was -11c for the same time. Things are NOT trending warmer.

This. Changes this run won't have a huge effect locally until sometime in week two, verbatim.

[Timmy]

Ridge is less amplified and further east at hr 168 compared tot the 12x euro yesterday.

[Gradient Keeper]

High temps PDX

Monday 29

Tuesday 26

Wednesday 25

 

Drop 2-4 off that east of I-205 as it is always colder in these situations

[BLI snowman]

Our best hope is before the front passes. Downslope NNE winds always kill our chances here.

 

Where you at?

[EA_TTD]

East, west, north, south...heck, put the D**n thing over Lake Minnetonka if it gives me appreciable cold and snow!

[Timmy]

High temps PDX

Monday 29

Tuesday 26

Wednesday 25

 

Drop 2-4 off that east of I-205 as it is always colder in these situations

Euro or your forecast?

[snow drift]

Where you at?

Hayden, Id

[Deweydog]

I'm all for fair and balance commentary but can we all please have the facts before hitting those square boxes?? 

 

At hour 138, the euro has PDX at -13c 850mb temps. Compare that to last night when it was -11c for the same time. Things are NOT trending warmer.

 

Yesterday:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016122712&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=176

 

Today:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016122812&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=76

 

Not a huge difference, and probably not all that meaningful but every degree C matters!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro or your forecast?

Euro

[Kayla]

Euro or your forecast?

 

Euro

[Heavy Snow]

High temps PDX

Monday 29

Tuesday 26

Wednesday 25

 

Drop 2-4 off that east of I-205 as it is always colder in these situations

 

That sounds about right.

[Timmy]

Euro

nice

[Kayla]

Yesterday:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016122712&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=176

 

Today:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016122812&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=76

 

Not a huge difference, and probably not all that meaningful but every degree C matters!!!

 

Exactly, it's the same. There will always be some variance in the 850 temps.

[Timmy]

Ridge is significantly further east at hour 192. Could be a huge cold inversion coming. Hopefully it retrogrades

[Bryant]

Ridge is less amplified and further east at hr 168 compared tot the 12x euro yesterday.

You're trying really hard to prove a point that means nothing. GFS caved to the Euro, it's that simple.

[Deweydog]

Exactly, it's the same. There will always be some variance in the 850 temps.

 

You just said it was colder? 

[Heavy Snow]

A bit, but it'd probably take a fairly sizable 500mb shift west at this point to ignite much juice ahead of the switch to offshore flow. With the models now locking in things appear pretty set for what would likely be a fairly uneventful transition. 

 

Do you think locations east PDX Metro at elevation have better chances for accumulations?

[Kayla]

High temps PDX

Monday 29

Tuesday 26

Wednesday 25

 

Drop 2-4 off that east of I-205 as it is always colder in these situations

 

And lows for that same timeframe at PDX - 

 

25

18

16

[Phil]

Looks like a solid 25% increase in the 1-200mb U-wind integral.

 

Quite a jump in the PV intensity. Also a more symmetrical response which allows it to resist structural damage from wave bombardment.

[Gradient Keeper]

Everything rides on 00z runs tonight.

BUT UNTIL THEN

 

 

18z GFS in 2 hours 39 minutes!

[Timmy]

You're trying really hard to prove a point that means nothing. GFS caved to the Euro, it's that simple.

You must not be looking at the euro.

[Kayla]

You just said it was colder? 

 

Yes, by 2º at 850mb. The point I was trying to get across was not that it was colder but that it was not trending warmer. AKA it's the same.

[Timmy]

Hr 216 looks good! Shortwave digging offshore, could be a snow maker

[Farmboy]

Everything rides on 00z runs tonight.

BUT UNTIL THEN

 

 

18z GFS in 2 hours 39 minutes!

I can't bare to look...

[BLI snowman]

Do you think locations east PDX Metro at elevation have better chances for accumulations?

 

Your longitude won't make a difference since the switch to offshore gradients should be pretty uniform and swiftly drying.

 

Saturday-Sunday morning definitely looks favorable above 1000' for good accumulations. But I don't expect just having a couple extra hundred feet of elevation will help much there when the flow is still southerly. 

[Bryant]

You must not be looking at the euro.

You're looking at 6+ days to try and justify your arguments from last night In the near term, the gfs caved to the Euro. It's okay to be wrong

[Gradient Keeper]

I need a nap.......... How's that JMA looking. UKMET looks good

[Timmy]

Your longitude won't make a difference since the switch to offshore gradients should be pretty uniform and swiftly drying.

 

Saturday-Sunday morning definitely looks favorable above 1000' for good accumulations. But I don't expect just having a couple extra hundred feet of elevation will help much there when the flow is still southerly.

 

Seems like these setups over perform sometimes as colder air can enhance precip.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Everything rides on 00z runs tonight.

BUT UNTIL THEN

 

 

18z GFS in 2 hours 39 minutes!

Thanks for your analysis. 

[Timmy]

You're looking at 6+ days to try and justify your arguments from last night In the near term, the gfs caved to the Euro. It's okay to be wrong

slight trends early on will affect more pronounced downstream.

[Heavy Snow]

Your longitude won't make a difference since the switch to offshore gradients should be pretty uniform and swiftly drying.

 

Saturday-Sunday morning definitely looks favorable above 1000' for good accumulations. But I don't expect just having a couple extra hundred feet of elevation will help much there when the flow is still southerly. 

 

Ok thanks. The 12z GFS looked a little better with accumulation amounts. There looks to be decent QPF, GFS says about 0.7" for the Arctic Front and higher amounts further east. Maybe we will get a New Year's Day surprise.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/144/qpf_048h.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/108/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Just dig south another 200-250 miles!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/240/500h_anom.na.png

[BLI snowman]

All models already appear to agree that the Thursday/Friday timeframe will be far more favorable for widespread snow chances than Sunday.

[FroYoBro]

The end of the Euro looks like a lot of fun. Snowy. 

[Deweydog]

slight trends early on will affect more pronounced downstream.

 

Good lord.

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW big snows Day 9-10!

[Heavy Snow]

WOW big snows Day 9-10!

 

Yeah, I just saw the snow maps!

[Jesse]

Yeah Jesse's issue is with me because I correctly predicted his snow was going to transition to sleet about a year ago.

You've been a bit of a pill this year and I like to prod you for it every now and then. It's really no biggie though. You know I luv you.