December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Weather101]

Everything will be ok.. It will get cold enough for snow. All that matters

[snow_wizard]

Really baffling to look at the GFS analogs tonight. Almost all of them are from events that actually worked out to be very cold and snowy. Very likely something is a little bit off on this run.

[snow_wizard]

Jim will decide when/if it's okay to freak the **** out. Until then take it out on your spouse/significant other/dog.

D**n right! This is going to work out.

[Jesse]

I guess it's my tendency to play devils advocate when people are being overly optimistic or unrealistic. I like to bring people down to earth, sorry if that comes off as negative but it is a part of opinionated discussion.

Yes much of the pessimism tonight has been completely rational. Lol. There is such a thing as a middle ground.

[Goducks09]

Euro running.  I suppose it's too late to install padded walls in the forum?

[chopper 918]

PDX WX Analysis

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/pdx.wx.analysis

 

Thanks!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS ensembles fairly close to 18z. Maybe a hair better.

 

18z: -5c or below starting Jan 1-Jan 8, bottoming at -11c at Jan 3, raising to -7c around Jan 5, then back down to -8/-9c around Jan 6.

 

00z: -5c or below starting Jan 1-Jan 9, bottoming at -10/-11c at Jan 3, raising to -8c around Jan 5, then back down to -9c around Jan 6.

 

Not that bad.

Yeah. Based on the 00z GFS Op you would have thought this would have been milder. It's actually slightly better than 18z for duration. After the 3rd the Op was an outlier. Note the strong blast for Yakima too. I would of course like to see colder members showing up on the 6z, 12z tomorrow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

On one model.

Yes, only one model.. the model that picked up on This coming cold wave before the Euro...is it the first to see what we do not want first too? We shall see ... history shows us that often those little incremental runs we call outliers or waffling end up being the trend setters we try to ignore until they smack us in the face and tell us to take off our road colored glasses. Again, I do not know what will happen with certainty but I am far from believing that this is going to be something historic or even mildly snowy. BUT I am hopeful!

[Heavy Snow]

Really baffling to look at the GFS analogs tonight. Almost all of them are from events that actually worked out to be very cold and snowy. Very likely something is a little bit off on this run.

You nailed it.

[BLI snowman]

Ensemble looks okay, slightly improved. Crisis averted.

Yeah, feels fair to say that the GFS is a growing outlier at the moment.

 

Euro will be of amazingly critical importance.

[snow drift]

Euro running. I suppose it's too late to install padded walls in the forum?

I know, right?

[snow_wizard]

Yes, only one model.. the model that picked up on This coming cold wave before the Euro...is it the first to see what we do not want first too? We shall see ... history shows us that often those little incremental runs we call outliers or waffling end up being the trend setters we try to ignore until they smack us in the face and tell us to take off our road colored glasses. Again, I do not know what will happen with certainty but I am far from believing that this is going to be something historic or even mildly snowy.

Actually the ECMWF ensemble picked up on it first. Hasn't wavered at all.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z Euro

Day 2

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Heavy Snow]

[Bryant]

I guess it's my tendency to play devils advocate when people are being overly optimistic or unrealistic. I like to bring people down to earth, sorry if that comes off as negative but it is a part of opinionated discussion.

In my opinion, the people who are optimistic or positive have good reasons to back them up (model biases, ensembles, etc). Your reason for being negative however, is because you want to "bring people down to earth". Doesn't make sense to me

[stuffradio]

You have to keep in mind the CPC just today made about the coldest 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks I've ever seen for this area. They aren't wish casting. If you'll recall I made the call for a New Years cold wave days ago.

The CPC doesn't make temperature outlooks, just probabilities of temperatures above or below normal. The bluer or more purple they are, the higher the chance of seeing a below normal period.

[Bryant]

Actually the ECMWF ensemble picked up on it first. Hasn't wavered at all.

ECMWF Ensemble has also statistically been performing the best

[Gradient Keeper]

Model comparison. Day 2. 00z EURO cut-off low is 200 miles further west than 00z GFS and it is retrograding.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/072/500h_anom.na.png

[Bryant]

A not so good Euro run would really shake this place up

[Gradient Keeper]

Compared to GFS, Block 100 miles further west, better tilt, cut-off 200 miles further west/northwest

[snow drift]

A not so good Euro run would really shake this place up

Weenies on suicide watch.

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty solid signal.

 

[Timmy]

In my opinion, the people who are optimistic or positive have good reasons to back them up (model biases, ensembles, etc). Your reason for being negative however, is because you want to "bring people down to earth". Doesn't make sense to me

I would argue having a major model trending in a bad direction a reason to base my opinion on. I would also argue that people who are optimistic are that way oftentimes because they desire a certain outcome.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Arctic trough nice phasing with Hudson's Bay vortex. Cut-off low MUCh further west than GFS

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

European looks Canadian.

[Timmy]

European looks Canadian.

we need to get Trump on board with "making the gfs great again"

[Heavy Snow]

Day 4 Arctic trough nice phasing with Hudson's Bay vortex. Cut-off low MUCh further west than GFS

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/096/500h_anom.na.png

So far so good.

[Gradient Keeper]

Cut-off low is probably 400 miles further west than GFS and it's sitting centered right under the base of the block. GFS was under the right quadrant. HUGE differences

[Bryant]

I would argue having a major model trending in a bad direction a reason to base my opinion on. I would also argue that people who are optimistic are that way oftentimes because they desire a certain outcome.

The gfs has been great, up until ~5 days out, then the Euro seems to swoop in and take over. Will it work that way everytime? No. Will it work that way this time around? We'll soon find out.

 

Of course people are going to be optimistic when the depicted pattern favors their location. Do you get bummed out when you're getting snow but others aren't? No.

[Jesse]

European looks Canadian.

You can tell as early as the Friday shortwave. That thing is like a crystal ball.

[Timmy]

This looks like it may be better than last nights 00z euro

[Jesse]

This looks like it may be better than last nights 00z euro

Someone needs to bring you back down to earth.

[Deweydog]

Everyone should be able to sleep ok.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 still want this further offshore, but it's okay.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122800/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Jesse]

Everyone should be able to sleep ok.

I guarantee there will be at least 2-3 crap runs that leave Andrew under his bed in the fetal position tomorrow.

[BLI snowman]

America is off on its own with this one. Sort of like the early stages of World Wars I and II.

[liquidsnow]

I guarantee there will be at least 2-3 crap runs that leave Andrew under his bed in the fetal position tomorrow.

[Timmy]

Looks to be moving toward the gfs at least compared to last nights euro run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's all about the Friday shortwave.