December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow drift]

[MossMan]

Wow the roads are horrific this morning, saw three sperate accidents on my way to work.

[Gradient Keeper]

Block intensifying now, amplifying before day 7 just like Euro

[Deweydog]

12z also does away with a lot of the block's negative tilt in the 6-7 day range.  

[Gradient Keeper]

HUGE difference WOW! Ready for this?

 

Model comparison
Day 7 - 850mb

Today 12z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122812/gfs_T850_nwus_29.png

 

 

 

and now 6z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016122806/gfs_T850_nwus_30.png

[Deweydog]

The cold flips us over and goes backdoor for Wednesday.  Would probably be the coldest day for the metro as gap winds would really get rolling.  

[snow drift]

It looks dramatically colder. Very nice!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is what I was hoping to see! Hope it continues with the 00z

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice east wind and 1043mb high moves into Columbia Basin

[Gradient Keeper]

Reload dropping south day 8

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incoming

[Jesse]

I knew it. We are locked in now.

Pretty big deal to have GFS finally blink at this stage. You're a genius!!!

[Goducks09]

Looks like the clown range might be setting up for something good...we'll see in the next few frames!

[Deweydog]

Chapped lips and frozen puddles!

[Gradient Keeper]

Model comparison 500mb

 

12z today

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

and now 00z last night

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/180/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

That little guy up there?  Don't worry about that little guy...

[snow drift]

That ridge is a beast!

[FroYoBro]

Pretty big deal to have GFS finally blink at this stage. You're a genius!!!

 

I'd like to thank everyone who has ever supported me in these forums. Couldn't do it without any of you!

[Deweydog]

Pretty bizarre stuff 200+ hours. 

[snow drift]

[Trainwreck]

Pretty bizarre stuff 200+ hours.

??

[Deweydog]

??

 

Exactly.  Kind of looks like that.  

[Gradient Keeper]

So in the mid-range through day 9 we're doing real good with GFS, after day 9 not yet...Trending heavily to Euro nonetheless

[luvssnow_spokane]

Actually the ECMWF ensemble picked up on it first. Hasn't wavered at all.

Actually ... GFS picked up first in the long range.. MUTE point now though. It looks cold and (maybe) snowy and that is all I/we want.

[Trainwreck]

Actually ... GFS picked up first in the long range.. MUTE point now though. It looks cold and snowy and that is all I/we want.

Moot

[Deweydog]

Moot

 

He can't hear you.  He's on mute.  

[Deweydog]

Windstorm on the 9th?  

 

I like how the low bombs from 975mb over Vancouver Island to 965mb over southern BC.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Moot

Thank you!  

[snow drift]

While there was definite improvement as far as cold goes, it's still looking fairly dry through the believable range. So incredibly hard to get those two together.

I have a chance at some snow on New Years day. I'd say 2-4 inches. Once the front goes through winds veer NNE. It should quickly dry out after that.

[BLI snowman]

Canadian looks nice and snowy for next week.

[Bryant]

So it seems with this pattern, the GFS led the Euro in the long range, and now the Euro has led in the short/mid range. Isn't that what that graph posted last night indicated has been the tendency since the GFS update?

Yup, which is what I was trying to get across. Some people were too busy latching onto the GFS even though it appeared to be an outlier though

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM very cold, and reload day 8-10 really impressive

[snow drift]

[Trainwreck]

Windstorm on the 9th?

 

I like how the low bombs from 975mb over Vancouver Island to 965mb over southern BC.

If that's the case, bye bye snowbirds and get ready for flooding.

[Deweydog]

Andrew doesn't seem to have much to say about my location?  

[ShawniganLake]

Windstorm on the 9th?

 

I like how the low bombs from 975mb over Vancouver Island to 965mb over southern BC.

Heavy rain on frozen barren tundra sounds like possible flooding. And high winds. Sounds dynamic.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I believe I will end up with about 1 to 3 inches of snow with the initial push this weekend. Would love more but I will take it. 

[chopper 918]

Long range on the GFS looks fun!

[Deweydog]

I believe I will end up with about 1 to 3 inches of snow with the initial push this weekend. Would love more but I will take it. 

 

Puget Sound looks good for some decent CZ/frontal stuff.  You guys deserve it.  

[MossMan]

Are we all getting excited yet? The ground is cold and primed...example would be the 32-33 degree temps and the roads turned into a hockey rinks this morning...and there is still snow in the shade up here in places...and my beloved Lake Goodwin is going to freeze solid!