December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[FroYoBro]

I started one if ppl want to move the discussion to there.  

Wait until January starts. 

[Deweydog]

I

[Deweydog]

want

[Goducks09]

Wait until January starts. 

 

Makes sense...I suppose I'm in a hurry to put December behind us.

[Deweydog]

it

[kokaneekidz]

Do you think we're in for a good amount tonight?

I have a feeling it is gonna stall and a small 2 mile wide band will recieve up to 6 inches. Have a feeling I am slightly too far north by a mile or so. maybe 2-4 right here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A blend between the euro and the gfs would pan out.

[Deweydog]

to

[Deweydog]

snow

[Deweydog]

at

[Goducks09]

A fairly decent looking line of sleet/snow about to move into the metro area...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Amature hr.

[Deweydog]

my

[kokaneekidz]

at

all areas north of the Siskiyous

[Deweydog]

location.

[FroYoBro]

my

This is sure taking a long time.

[kokaneekidz]

Amature hr.

That is true. But if I'm right it sure would be sleddable snow

[luvssnow_spokane]

Massive radar echoes over me but nothing falling from the sky. I hate that!

[jaya]

Well, it appears to me that the first trough on Friday carved enough of a weakness in the southern portion of the offshore ridge that it allows southern stream energy to get injected into the westerlies. At the same time, big changes on how development of systems just west of the date line and south of the Aleutians is resulting in some retrogression of the ridge back to 160W.  So, observations are as follows:

 

1) Short term looks similar to what has been seen in the models over the past couple of days. A convergence zone tonight followed by modified arctic air middayish Sunday.  Until the Bellingham-Williams Lake gradient gets below -12, the outflow won't shift south into the interior. The convergence zone may not be much of a player. While the large scale gradients are showing outflow increasing, the Portland to Bellingham and Olympia to Bellingham gradients are decreasing.  I'd like to see all increasing at the same time to get an active convergence zone between Lake Stevens or Arlington down to Seattle. But still maybe a bit of snow ahead of the arctic.  My guess based on all this and the superensembles from NCAR and NCEP...1 inch or so.

 

2) in the later short term - Mon through Wed - looks cold and dry. Mid teens to lower 20s for lows in the greater Seattle area and highs in the 28-33 range would be my first guess.

 

3) Beyond Wed night... jury is out for Wed night through Fri. Looks like either systems going inland somewhere over northern Oregon or Washington per the GFS and GEM or staying offshore per the ECMWF.  All options are viable, so stay tuned.  To the north of the tracks of any developing lows - very large snow totals are possible (like shown by GFS/GEM). ECMWF would quickly warm things aloft.

 

Hopefully, everyone enjoys the New Year and doesn't jump off any bridges (it has been depressing looking at the forum today!)  I wonder if I'm on with a bunch of nerdy 5th graders!

 

Anyway, Happy New Year!

[kokaneekidz]

Wow. Now there is band backfilling towards Renton. Fun for both sides

[kokaneekidz]

Well, it appears to me that the first trough on Friday carved enough of a weakness in the southern portion of the offshore ridge that it allows southern stream energy to get injected into the westerlies. At the same time, big changes on how development of systems just west of the date line and south of the Aleutians is resulting in some retrogression of the ridge back to 160W.  So, observations are as follows:

 

1) Short term looks similar to what has been seen in the models over the past couple of days. A convergence zone tonight followed by modified arctic air middayish Sunday.  Until the Bellingham-Williams Lake gradient gets below -12, the outflow won't shift south into the interior. The convergence zone may not be much of a player. While the large scale gradients are showing outflow increasing, the Portland to Bellingham and Olympia to Bellingham gradients are decreasing.  I'd like to see all increasing at the same time to get an active convergence zone between Lake Stevens or Arlington down to Seattle. But still maybe a bit of snow ahead of the arctic.  My guess based on all this and the superensembles from NCAR and NCEP...1 inch or so.

 

2) in the later short term - Mon through Wed - looks cold and dry. Mid teens to lower 20s for lows in the greater Seattle area and highs in the 28-33 range would be my first guess.

 

3) Beyond Wed night... jury is out for Wed night through Fri. Looks like either systems going inland somewhere over northern Oregon or Washington per the GFS and GEM or staying offshore per the ECMWF.  All options are viable, so stay tuned.  To the north of the tracks of any developing lows - very large snow totals are possible (like shown by GFS/GEM). ECMWF would quickly warm things aloft.

 

Hopefully, everyone enjoys the New Year and doesn't jump off any bridges (it has been depressing looking at the forum today!)  I wonder if I'm on with a bunch of nerdy 5th graders!

 

Anyway, Happy New Year!

Thanks for the great words of wisdom .. Happy New Year!!@@

[BLI snowman]

Could be the first midnight New Year's snow in a long time.

[MossMan]

Well, it appears to me that the first trough on Friday carved enough of a weakness in the southern portion of the offshore ridge that it allows southern stream energy to get injected into the westerlies. At the same time, big changes on how development of systems just west of the date line and south of the Aleutians is resulting in some retrogression of the ridge back to 160W. So, observations are as follows:

 

1) Short term looks similar to what has been seen in the models over the past couple of days. A convergence zone tonight followed by modified arctic air middayish Sunday. Until the Bellingham-Williams Lake gradient gets below -12, the outflow won't shift south into the interior. The convergence zone may not be much of a player. While the large scale gradients are showing outflow increasing, the Portland to Bellingham and Olympia to Bellingham gradients are decreasing. I'd like to see all increasing at the same time to get an active convergence zone between Lake Stevens or Arlington down to Seattle. But still maybe a bit of snow ahead of the arctic. My guess based on all this and the superensembles from NCAR and NCEP...1 inch or so.

 

2) in the later short term - Mon through Wed - looks cold and dry. Mid teens to lower 20s for lows in the greater Seattle area and highs in the 28-33 range would be my first guess.

 

3) Beyond Wed night... jury is out for Wed night through Fri. Looks like either systems going inland somewhere over northern Oregon or Washington per the GFS and GEM or staying offshore per the ECMWF. All options are viable, so stay tuned. To the north of the tracks of any developing lows - very large snow totals are possible (like shown by GFS/GEM). ECMWF would quickly warm things aloft.

 

Hopefully, everyone enjoys the New Year and doesn't jump off any bridges (it has been depressing looking at the forum today!) I wonder if I'm on with a bunch of nerdy 5th graders!

 

Anyway, Happy New Year!

Thank you for this update! Much appreciated!! I wondered if we were even going to get below freezing next week the way people on here were talking, still sounds downright cold for the first half of the week, then anything goes after. Sure hope we have the lows coming in to our south creating big time snows up here!!

[kokaneekidz]

Loved tonights Euro!

 

giphy.gif

Get your Festivus Pipe ready!

[FroYoBro]

Just raining here. 35 degrees.

[Heavy Snow]

I would like a blend of the GFS/GEM and EURO. Lows coming just south of PDX Metro.

[HighlandExperience]

[kokaneekidz]

It is finally sticking on asphalt surfaces and the flakes are big fluffy and Beautiful

[HighlandExperience]

It is finally sticking on asphalt surfaces and the flakes are big fluffy and Beautiful

Where you at?

[kokaneekidz]

Where you at?

Middle part of Harbour Pt Blvd near the golf course, a block north of the clubhouse

[TT-SEA]

It is finally sticking on asphalt surfaces and the flakes are big fluffy and Beautiful

 

 

Love it!

[MossMan]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It is starting to look like the radar is going to fill in nicely.

[kokaneekidz]

It is starting to look like the radar is going to fill in nicely.

Sure does. The donut hole is closing fast.... Bring it baby yeah

[Heavy Snow]

We need that low going in right over pdx

 

The moisture will still reach you up there, plus you will stay colder.

[bainbridgekid]

Convergence zone filling in pretty nicely between Lynnwood and Everett and slowly slipping SE. Also seems to be filling in around Bellingham.

 

Wish I were home because looks like Mountlake Terrace is probably going to be whitening up in the next hour or so.

 

1:20 AM here in Chicago and obsessing over the radar out there. We are truly sick guys.

[HighlandExperience]

As someone else pointed out, IR satellite is about the only thing keeping me hopeful for more tonight. It looks like there is a lull over us right now as the L passes through to the S, then some nice cloud tops on the N side currently NNE of Bellingham will move down. 3AM-9AM does look about right as NWS suggested, IF they amount to anything.

 

It's nice to see the radar filling in a little S of I-90 regardless.

Will a deformation band set up over western wa?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Goducks09]

Snowing in downtown PDX.  Happy New Year!

[Heavy Snow]

Snowing in downtown PDX.  Happy New Year!

 

Nice! Happy New Year! Everybody will be staying up for the 06z GFS, biggest run ever.