December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You're pretty wind-sheltered from the east, right?

 

If you can get 3", I bet you get below zero.

 

I am, I almost never get east wind. I got 4" of snow going into the January 2013 inversion and hit 11 one night. I hit 2 in December 2013, with less than 1" of snow cover.

[The Swamp]

Am I supposed to get excited for a trace of snow?

 

How would this be snowgasmic, epic, amazing?

 

**** cold weather if there isn't any snow.

 

Sticking with my forecast for the swamp.

 

0-Trace

35F Highs

25F Lows

 

Epic sadness.

[chopper 918]

If I can somehow score 2-3" of snow I bet I could make the 0-5 range...

The problem is a T-1" looks likely.

[Deweydog]

Is it that "little guy"?

This guy is bigger.

[Kayla]

Oh what a few inches of snow would do...

 

Call me crazy or wishcasting but the models have been trending slightly juicier with the slider along the front as the runs have gotten colder... A trend you think?

[Deweydog]

Call me crazy or wishcasting but the models have been trending slightly juicier with the slider along the front as the runs have gotten colder... A trend you think?

The chances of anyone seeing anything more than a dusting in the lowlands here are remote. The Puget Sound is always in a better position with the convergence zone in play and better overall dynamics with Arctic fronts.

[chopper 918]

Maybe a flurry on New Year's Day, then cold and dry. Not all that exciting as all of our backyards will look as they do now except for being under blue bird skies.

[Heavy Snow]

Heavy snow?

Maybe.

[chopper 918]

Maybe.

No.

[BLI snowman]

Models seem to be backing off the reload idea and moving into a more typical progression. Bigger block slides east and gets undercut from the west before much of a retrograde occurs. Which would still set up a snowy battle ground over us next weekend, just less cold.

[Deweydog]

Major transition for next weekend on this run.

[The Swamp]

Models seem to be backing off the reload idea and moving into a more typical progression. Bigger block slides east and gets undercut from the west before much of a retrograde occurs. Which would still set up a snowy battle ground over us next weekend, just less cold.

Just ten days away, right? Always ten days away.

[Kayla]

Euro now shows that we get progressively colder at the surface through the week. Highs only in the upper 20's being shown at PDX from Tuesday through Saturday now. Impressive.

[chopper 918]

Major transition for next weekend on this run.

ICE!! Yay!!

[Timmy]

snowstorm, just 10 days away!

[Deweydog]

Just ten days away, right? Always ten days away.

12 for you.

[BLI snowman]

Call me crazy or wishcasting but the models have been trending slightly juicier with the slider along the front as the runs have gotten colder... A trend you think?

 

Not seeing a moister trend at all, although the 06z GFS did have a little straggler band of moderate flurries on Sunday evening which was interesting.

[Heavy Snow]

No.

 

Might not be heavy but moderate and it's a start.

[Bryant]

blockzilla is dyinghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016122912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

Euro OP has been horrible in that time frame.

[BLI snowman]

Just ten days away, right? Always ten days away.

 

I bet our arctic airmass gets pushed back a week on the 00z.

[Jesse]

A lot to be unhappy about right now!

[Heavy Snow]

The feeling you get when you see the EURO show below freezing temperatures for next week and drop 8" of snow at your location by day 10 with more snow to come after that.

 

[Kayla]

Major transition for next weekend on this run.

 

I'd say so... 72 hour snowfall totals at the end of the run.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lots of potential with this pattern as Dewey said.

[Kayla]

ICE!! Yay!!

 

Snow.

[Kayla]

Not seeing a moister trend at all, although the 06z GFS did have a little straggler band of moderate flurries on Sunday evening which was interesting.

 

Wishcasting it is then!

[BLI snowman]

Euro OP has been horrible in that time frame.

 

Except the models and ensembles are all trending towards some Pacific energy now next weekend which will slip in. It's a pretty obvious climatological progression for us, hence why two week arctic outbreaks are nearly unheard of. It's great for snow chances and if we play our cards right maybe a full retrograde down the road.

[Jesse]

An inch?? I want four!!

25° high?? I want 15°!!

Only lasts a week?? I want a month!!

Human nature is interesting. We are quite good at making ourselves unhappy.

[Deweydog]

snowstorm, just 10 days away!

It's a pretty believable progression, made more interesting by the fact there is likely still going to be a lot of cold air to our north.

 

We know there will be very cold air in place. That is a significant part of cold and snowy weather.

[Jesse]

Except the models and ensembles are all trending towards some Pacific energy now next weekend which will slip in. It's a pretty obvious climatological progression for us, hence why two week arctic outbreaks are nearly unheard of. It's great for snow chances and if we play our cards right maybe a full retrograde down the road.

Yeah the block is still there at day 10. Could be a temporary undercut before it restrengthens. Or we could get a lot of snow then go back to more seasonable weather for awhile. Either way we are looking at a pretty solid early January.

[Front Ranger]

Aside from the whole Eugene snowstorm this is really similar to December 2013, hopefully it doesn't end with such a whimper.

But occurring almost a month later, so overall temps should be easily colder. Can't wait to see some of the numbers that come out of this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But occurring almost a month later, so overall temps should be easily colder. Can't wait to see some of the numbers that come out of this.

 

Yeah I think some of the east side numbers are going to be tremendous. Obviously EUG won't hit -10, but it could definitely be colder for PDX, SLE, SEA, etc...

[Timmy]

But occurring almost a month later, so overall temps should be easily colder. Can't wait to see some of the numbers that come out of this.

sounds like broken pipes to me, but i'll take one for the team.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah the block is still there at day 10. Could be a temporary undercut before it restrengthens. Or we could get a lot of snow then go back to more seasonable weather for awhile. Either way we are looking at a pretty solid early January.

 

If only the Euro went out to 384.

 

This is likely shaping up to be our best January locally, for snow/cold combined, since at least 1980. That's longer than many of us have lived!

[Jesse]

sounds like broken pipes to me, but i'll take one for the team.

Remember that every little snow cloud has a sh*t lining!

[Brennan]

Not to be a downer.. But it is a little disappointing that we still seem to be having trouble achieving a full on arctic outbreak with a North to South orientation. That is what the Puget Sound area needs for a very snowy pattern. Seems like almost all of our modified arctic blasts have this NE or ENE orientation and everything is just a couple hundred miles too far east to produce a real snowmaker. 

 

Having said that, the reloads advertised for next weekend on yesterday's runs were pretty much exactly that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Except the models and ensembles are all trending towards some Pacific energy now next weekend which will slip in. It's a pretty obvious climatological progression for us, hence why two week arctic outbreaks are nearly unheard of. It's great for snow chances and if we play our cards right maybe a full retrograde down the road.

 

Yes, even our wildest Januaries had brief warm ups. 

[Jesse]

Would be interested in hearing from Phil, jaya, IBR, et al and their opinions on then longevity of the block. They seemed pretty bullish a few days ago.

[Jesse]

Yes, even our wildest Januaries had brief warm ups.

1950 had a couple days near 50 at PDX with SSW winds thrown in there. Note by note redux still on the table.

[ShawniganLake]

Not to be a downer.. But it is a little disappointing that we still seem to be having trouble achieving a full on arctic outbreak with a North to South orientation. That is what the Puget Sound area needs for a very snowy pattern. Seems like almost all of our modified arctic blasts have this NE or ENE orientation and everything is just a couple hundred miles too far east to produce a real snowmaker.

 

Having said that, the reloads advertised for next weekend on yesterday's runs were pretty much exactly that.

I couldn't agree more. Looking pretty impressive down south. This trajectory isn't great for big Fraser river blasts and also tend to be drier for most.