12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Grizzcoat]

no-- those are running totals the highest that I posted being OSH at .58"

[james1976]

Hows the 6z nam and gfs?

[james1976]

DMX likely going with advisory and monitoring it for warning potential.

[james1976]

Keep talking about watching the seeder-feeder for Saturday. Wth is that? Lol

[gosaints]

Check out the vapor vapor imagery in the pacific.  This system very well could have some surprises yet.  

[St Paul Storm]

Upgraded to a warning here this morning due to the consistency in the model track. 6-10" looking good.

[WBadgersW]

MKX now talking about 8-11". There's still a good amount of spread, 06z NAM says 10" while the GFS/Ggem show 15".

[St Paul Storm]

Check out the vapor vapor imagery in the pacific.  This system very well could have some surprises yet.

 

Yep, with an unusually high amount of moisture in the PNW running into an arctic airmass this thing might pop more than models are indicating. Feel like there are a lot more upsides to this storm than usual.

[Snowshoe]

Keep talking about watching the seeder-feeder for Saturday. Wth is that? Lol

 

http://parkseed.com/images/l/06611.jpg

[hlcater]

Yep, with an unusually high amount of moisture in the PNW running into an arctic airmass this thing might pop more than models are indicating. Feel like there are a lot more upsides to this storm than usual.

Oh yea,,all those under the primary axis of the WAA band are going to get it good. Enjoy it! Looks good for 2-4ish here.

[Tony]

Check out the vapor vapor imagery in the pacific.  This system very well could have some surprises yet.  

Map to go along with your comment. Looking good!

[Naddan85]

 

 

So, I pulled up the SREF plume viewer for Omaha and was surprised to see such high amounts...because there aren't really that many models showing anything more than a couple of inches. I know that the models in this tend to overdo it some (especially on the higher end), but perhaps we could get a little more than we're currently expecting?

[Snowshoe]

Check out the vapor vapor imagery in the pacific.  This system very well could have some surprises yet.  

 

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif

 

I'm too slow

[Tony]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif

 

I'm too slow

Yours is a lot better..movie action!

[gosaints]

Nothing major of note on the 12z nam. Defo band will contunue to be major wildcard

[Tony]

All that moisture over-running the artic air. Only good things can come from this.

[WBadgersW]

Decent jump in snowfall totals for SE WI. 12-14". Less in Kenosha-Racine area

[Madtown]

How'd it look for msn?

[WBadgersW]

I would say msn does well

 

[Tom]

Map to go along with your comment. Looking good!

That's a deep subtropical connect!  Looking better for N IL on the 12z NAM...

[Snowshoe]

WARNING 10:1

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121512/namconus_asnow_ncus_19.png

[james1976]

NAM looking better for IA compared to yesterday's runs. Good trends.

[Snowshoe]

Plenty of juice

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121506/084/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

[gosaints]

Money if you want to see the new weenie model check out the 3km NAM totals.

 

 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2016121512/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_54.png

[WBadgersW]

While we're talking about the NAM... I prefer this run

 

[Tom]

Seems like the Euro is a bit colder regarding 850's compared to the GFS around these parts.  Using Grizz's Euro txt output, 850's only climb to -2.4C...meanwhile, the GFS brings the 0C line up to ORD.

 

Interested to see how Lehs potential plays out...another wildcard besides the defo band...

 

06z GFS showing some convergence hugging the coastline...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121506/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_12.png

[gosaints]

RGEM has the North Iowa peeps back in the WAA game as well.  Not fully loaded yet on BW maps

[Tom]

For ORD: EURO 7", GFS 7.6" and now the NAM ticks upwards @ 5.8"....riding the southern edge...still not comfortable but that makes it all that much more exciting.  Hope the trends continue upward and onward for those on the southern fringe!

[hlcater]

RGEM has the North Iowa peeps back in the WAA game as well.  Not fully loaded yet on BW maps

I believe the RGEM has a south bias. Correct me if I'm wrong though.

[Tony]

For ORD: EURO 7", GFS 7.6" and now the NAM ticks upwards @ 5.8"....riding the southern edge...still not comfortable but that makes it all that much more exciting.  Hope the trends continue upward and onward for those on the southern fringe!

This will be interesting to watch it unfold as all it would take is a 20-30 mile shift to be in the heavier snows. Also of great interest will be where the defo bands(if any) sets up as this could really enhance snowfall totals greatly.

[Tom]

Up to 18k views!  We are going to blow past the previous storm thread.  Nice to see all the action and I'm sure many will enjoy another weekend snowstorm.

[Lutzowgl14]

Hey Tom, thank you for all your information and knowledge. I have learned a lot on here and enjoy all the posts. How much snow do you think the Waukesha, WI area will get? The forecast seems to be calling for around 4-8 inches but the models seem to show much more!

[Tony]

RGEM thru 48

[Tom]

Hey Tom, thank you for all your information and knowledge. I have learned a lot on here and enjoy all the posts. How much snow do you think the Waukesha, WI area will get? The forecast seems to be calling for around 4-8 inches but the models seem to show much more!

I think that is a conservative amount for your area and might get increased to 6-12" the way things are trending, with possible 12-14" totals if there is consistent banding over a given area which is a nowcast event.

[St Paul Storm]

12z GFS nearly identical to 06z on strength and placement through hour 54.

[Tony]

GFS has a nice defo band forming. Could lay down some heavy amounts of snow.

[Tom]

12z GFS showing a healthy defo band...bullseye E/C Wisco...model is picking up on a back-end lake plume...

[Tom]

GFS trending wetter for N IA and those on the southern edge of the storm...last 4 runs...

 

 

[WBadgersW]

The GFS sure has been consistent with that 12"+ area.

[Tom]

MKE area is going to get crushed...the lake set up is looking very favorable...