SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I feel like this is definitely trending away from a major event across NW Oregon... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 The GEM almost always overdoes precip...but this is still WAY better than the 12z run. Not that anyone should care, per Bryant. get_orig_img (2).gifAs mentioned, my comment was regarding Seattle-North, which was also what our original discussion was about a few days ago. GEM has been horrible, but I hope it verifies for everyone down that way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 You look to be in a good spot for this one. Just a matter of getting enough cooling tonight.It is 34 now with a bit of rain and an occasional flake right now, confirmed by the windshield spalt test. My work schedule this week has me off tomorrow so it will be my first late night on snow alert in a couple years. My daughter has school tomorrow and wants to stay up with me expecting school to be cancelled, I am considering that request currently. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 No more north than this please 00z GEM http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017011000/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I feel like this is definitely trending away from a major event across NW Oregon...Definitely a southward trend. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 It is 34 now with a bit of rain and an occasional flake right now, confirmed by the windshield spalt test. My work schedule this week has me off tomorrow so it will be my first late night on snow alert in a couple years. My daughter has school tomorrow and wants to stay up with me expecting school to be cancelled, I am considering that request currently.Being a new dad, this sounds like a great time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 The current satellite still looks like the low is tracking towards Kelso/Olympia area unless it's an optical illusion. Or perhaps I'm seeing what I want to see 31.8.... we have achieved one goal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I feel like this is definitely trending away from a major event across NW Oregon...Is the Portland metro not NW OR? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 It is 34 now with a bit of rain and an occasional flake right now, confirmed by the windshield spalt test. My work schedule this week has me off tomorrow so it will be my first late night on snow alert in a couple years. My daughter has school tomorrow and wants to stay up with me expecting school to be cancelled, I am considering that request currently. Snow falling during the night when you don't have to work the next day is the best. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 As mentioned, my comment was regarding Seattle-North, which was also what our original discussion was about a few days ago. GEM has been horrible, but I hope it verifies for everyone down that way GFS and GEM have both trended better with 0z runs. Given that, and the natural tendency with these things to drift north, there's certainly hope. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Definitely a southward trend. Is the Portland metro not NW OR? That is SW WA. I think some areas will do well seriously. But looking like a lot less of a widespread event than 24 hours ago. West side metro looking solid though. South of Salem and east of 205 may be disappointed. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Being a new dad, this sounds like a great time My daughter is 11 now and is just recently showing signs of having the snow bug, super cool for me to groom another winter weather fanatic!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goducks09 Posted January 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I feel like this is definitely trending away from a major event across NW Oregon... Wut? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_00z.jpg Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Snow falling during the night when you don't have to work the next day is the best.Absolutely, it may end up being an all nighter which I have missed dearly. Makes me feel like a kid again!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_00z.jpgIt is so annoying that the Eugene snow total isn't included in that graphic. It's a graphic that can be recycled over and over too. D****T! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Yikes, the WRF for NW Oregon definitely took a step back on the snow totals. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 That is SW WA. I think some areas will do well seriously. But looking like a lot less of a widespread event than 24 hours ago. West side metro looking solid though. South of Salem and east of 205 may be disappointed.Seems like a weeniesh reaction to Salem no longer being quite the bullseye. You should still do well, things haven't trended away from that. 2-4" looks likely as a general rule of thumb from Salem to Kelso. That's a nice event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 It almost totally clear now... that has to help. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Yikes, the WRF for NW Oregon definitely took a step back on the snow totals.The WRF is extremely inaccurate when I don't like what it shows. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Seems like a weeniesh reaction to Salem no longer being quite the bullseye. You should still do well, things haven't trended away from that. 2-4" looks likely as a general rule of thumb from Salem to Kelso. That's a nice event. I hope so. The WRF is uninspiring...King EURO could save us. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 No more north than this please 00z GEM http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017011000/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.pngYeah keep it right there. The 00z GEM gives east siders more hope. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011000/054/sn10_acc.us_nw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Absolutely, it may end up being an all nighter which I have missed dearly. Makes me feel like a kid again!! On New Years Eve, my son was up until 4 a.m. and when I went to bed he told me that he just can't sleep when its snowing because he hates missing it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I hope so. The WRF is uninspiring...King EURO could save us.The WRF showed Clark County getting donut holed on 12/20/2008 and 2/6/2014. You'll be okay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Yeah keep it right there. The 00z GEM gives east siders more hope. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011000/054/sn10_acc.us_nw.pngI'm not totally white on that map! There is hope!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Yeah keep it right there. The 00z GEM gives east siders more hope. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017011000/054/sn10_acc.us_nw.png Unless we have any major changes between now and tomorrow, I think you'll do just fine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 GFS and GEM have both trended better with 0z runs. Given that, and the natural tendency with these things to drift north, there's certainly hope.We haven't really been following the natural northward trend which we are used to. As I said though, I hope the snowiest of solutions will verify for everyone down that way. My lack of optimism was never focused that far south, it has always been regarding Seattle-North Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 On New Years Eve, my son was up until 4 a.m. and when I went to bed he told me that he just can't sleep when its snowing because he hates missing it. That is me in a nutshell, I enjoy snow on the ground but there is just something magical about watching it fall, especially because of where I live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goducks09 Posted January 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 A GFS/GEM blend would be nice. The GEM brings that low north a bit too close for comfort. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I am wondering where the real slug of moisture will come from, looking at sat/radar, it doesn't look all that promising right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 We haven't really been following the natural northward trend which we are used to. I'm talking about this particular deformation setup. As Tim said earlier, deformation zones often end up drifting further north than modeled. I get that you're only concerned with areas north of Seattle, but that doesn't apply to me or many others on here. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Unless we have any major changes between now and tomorrow, I think you'll do just fine.Yeah I'm not worried about my location. I live in the southern portion of Gresham where I don't get as much east winds as others do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 My wife says we won't have snow because we don't have a snow sky. I told her to go to bed. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I'm talking about this particular deformation setup. As Tim said earlier, deformation zones often end up drifting further north than modeled. I get that you're only concerned with areas north of Seattle, but that doesn't apply to me or many others on here.If I was only concerned with areas north of Seattle, I wouldn't be hoping the snowier solutions verify for everyone down south You're in a much different situation than all of us, because you don't live here at all. Overall though, the reason this board is mainly filled with Oregon/SW Wa posters currently is the fact that there isn't any hope for many up this way. Doesn't mean I want them to get screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Latest HRRR took back the band-look over King County from previous runs. Keeps it from Pierce-South and it's pretty weak as-is. Very light amounts across the board. Interesting to see some models get better, some get worse right before the 'event'. Still uncertainty. The latest experimental HRRR shows it right over King County in the morning... http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2017011001/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f15.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Yikes, the WRF for NW Oregon definitely took a step back on the snow totals. Looks great to me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 A GFS/GEM blend would be nice. The GEM brings that low north a bit too close for comfort. We need about 50 miles further north. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Latest HRRR took back the band-look over King County from previous runs. Keeps it from Pierce-South and it's pretty weak as-is. Very light amounts across the board. Interesting to see some models get better, some get worse right before the event. Still uncertainty. I've paid more attention to the HRRR this winter, and beyond 4 hours or so it pretty much sucks. That's why I don't reference it any more. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 The Euro is going to come in way north...just you watch!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Just glad Klamath Falls and Bend are finally scoring! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.