TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Very frustrating. Lots can change in 3 days though. It will trend north! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Things are starting to look good. After hour 84, there is more snow coming. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017013000/084/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png540 line all the way down by Eugene. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 It will trend north!yes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Wasn't it just like 3 or 4 days ago the models were showing 20+" for parts of the Puget Sound...just like it showed at one point before the first part of January event...so comical how similar things have evolved this winter. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 00zzzzz Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 It will trend north!No Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Wasn't it just like 3 or 4 days ago the models were showing 20+" for parts of the Puget Sound...just like it showed at one point before the first part of January event...so comical how similar things have evolved this winter.48 hrs ago the 0z showed 2-3+ feet for parts of southern Vancouver island. Looks totally dry now. Comical really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 48 hrs ago the 0z showed 2-3+ feet for parts of southern Vancouver island. Looks totally dry now. Comical really. 0z looks different than the NAM. Not seeing the deformation band now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Deformation band continues to look much more anemic on the GFS as compared with the NAM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Very frustrating. Lots can change in 3 days though.True.. but not for the better. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Well at least it's looking like it will be over in a hurry; no extended outflow winds/low dewpoints. The models are converging on an event that brings the colder air in on Tuesday and has the almost moisture-less low racing to the north by Friday, leaving a limited window for low level cold to arrive/establish. Thursday evening is probably the best shot at a widespread overrunning snow if it turns out juicier than forecast. It's still 33F in Prince George and 39F in Kamloops; this has a long way to go and as is usually the case I wouldn't be surprised if the low level cold gets hung up in terrain. Can't say I'll be sad if the cold air struggles to arrive this time. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013000/gfs_T850_nwus_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 00z UKMET shows some light moisture on Wednesday. Then the pattern gets interesting days 5 and 6. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Frozen Snake River today Cap Cloud on Mt. Hood The rugged Mtns of Central Idaho 6 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 I cannot wait for warm summer evenings at the lake and not being let down by model run after model run. Though I think we will have to get through a 2010 style wet and cool spring first. Only thing that would make things a little better would be a repeat of late Feb. 2011 or March 1989. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 I cannot wait for warm summer evenings at the lake and not being let down by model run after model run. Though I think we will have to get through a 2010 style wet and cool spring first. Only thing that would make things a little better would be a repeat of late Feb. 2011 or March 1989. Tonights CFS was very tasty for the month of March. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Tonights CFS was very tasty for the month of March.I wouldn't mind a cold and snowy March...one can hope. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 I wouldn't mind a cold and snowy March...one can hope. I suppose the next window of opportunity could be different due to changing wavelengths and whatnot. I think we will have one more shot to get it right. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 I cannot wait for warm summer evenings at the lake and not being let down by model run after model run. Though I think we will have to get through a 2010 style wet and cool spring first. Only thing that would make things a little better would be a repeat of late Feb. 2011 or March 1989. I would love to see a spring featuring cool / dry weather and lot of frosty nights. Those can be enjoyable. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 GEM is still twice as strong as GFS in precip amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 I cannot wait for warm summer evenings at the lake and not being let down by model run after model run. Though I think we will have to get through a 2010 style wet and cool spring first. Only thing that would make things a little better would be a repeat of late Feb. 2011 or March 1989. We still might eke out a overrun event sometime Thursday evening ~ Friday. It's starting to look like the BC lower mainland might be a winner again with that one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 00z UKMET shows some light moisture on Wednesday. Then the pattern gets interesting days 5 and 6. I've been hoping for that period to trend better. The best run I've seen yet in that time frame. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 I've been hoping for that period to trend better. The best run I've seen yet in that time frame. Yup, I have been watching that period as well. On many runs it looks like we are about to get a "reload" but then it digs way too far west and undercuts the block. Glad to see at least one run showing it moving south instead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 I've been hoping for that period to trend better. The best run I've seen yet in that time frame.Euro trying to go this way day 5/6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Euro trying to go this way day 5/6. It started picking up on something like that in last night's run. It also looks warmer than the GFS and probably a bit better for an overrunning event Thursday~Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 It started picking up on something like that in last night's run. It also looks warmer than the GFS and probably a bit better for an overrunning event Thursday~Friday. ECMWF shows a small dusting of snow for all of the lowlands on Thursday night but it warms up quick. Next weekend looks very wet. Given its tendency to over-estimate lowland snow... I would not count on anything more than flurries. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 ECMWF shows a small dusting of snow for all of the lowlands on Thursday night but it warms up quick. Next weekend looks very wet. Given its tendency to over-estimate lowland snow... I would not count on anything more than flurries.You mind posting the map? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 You mind posting the map? Lowland stuff appears to happen early Friday morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Lowland stuff appears to happen early Friday morning. untitled.pngLooking a little stronger(24 hour difference, but whatever). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 ECMWF shows a small dusting of snow for all of the lowlands on Thursday night but it warms up quick. Next weekend looks very wet. Given its tendency to over-estimate lowland snow... I would not count on anything more than flurries. Still much better than anything the GFS has been showing for northern areas, a quick transition isn't necessarily a bad thing as far as widespread snow goes. I'd trust its totals more with an overrunning event like this where it's throwing moisture over cool dry air more than a more marginal or Arctic front situation where microclimates dominate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Still much better than anything the GFS has been showing for northern areas, a quick transition isn't necessarily a bad thing as far as widespread snow goes. I'd trust its totals more with an overrunning event like this where it's throwing moisture over cool dry air more than a more marginal or Arctic front situation where microclimates dominate.Ditto. I'll take this over what this mornings run of the GFS showed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Watching the morning news shows... reporters outside the White House in a winter wonderland. Forecast shows 48 there tomorrow so it will not last long. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Watching the morning news shows... reporters outside the White House in a winter wonderland. Forecast shows 48 there tomorrow so it will not last long.Hopefully just an appetizer for the weekend snowstorm. If Trump can make winter great again then I'm all for him. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Now that's what I'm talking about. Complete W2 destruction of the PV during week two. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017013006&fh=-36&xpos=0&ypos=521 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Now that's what I'm talking about. Complete W2 destruction of the PV during week two. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017013006&fh=-36&xpos=0&ypos=521Puget Sound snow? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Puget Sound snow?Depends on how fast it can downwell, and how quickly tropical convection responds. March maybe? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Depends on how fast it can downwell, and how quickly tropical convection responds. March maybe?Come on March 1989! Or that other year way back before I was born! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 12z GFS shows snow/ice for PDX Metro on Wednesday afternoon/evening. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_11.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 Now that's what I'm talking about. Complete W2 destruction of the PV during week two. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2017013006&fh=-36&xpos=0&ypos=521Oh philbert 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 30, 2017 Report Share Posted January 30, 2017 It looks pretty warm on the ~10th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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