January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

PDX holding at 40.

 

**Bonus cool day in progress**

[Jesse]

Looks like the coldest month since December 1985 is basically a lock now.

 

Coldest month of my life in Portland. I missed December '85 by six days.

[jakeinthevalley]

Looks like the coldest month since December 1985 is basically a lock now.

 

Coldest month of my life in Portland. I missed December '85 by six days.

I missed Jan 1950 by 18 years

[luvssnow_spokane]

Actually... Friday is only 4 days away.

Might as well be a month or year. This snowfall map is completely meaningless! Not one map this far out has come even close to what it has shown. I highly doubt anything will change now. One can always hope but honestly these maps are complete crap. Unless you live in Portland.

[ShawniganLake]

[ShawniganLake]

PDX holding at 40.

 

**Bonus cool day in progress**

Chilly up here too. 40/30 so far today. Yesterday's 50 looks like a brief spike for now.

[Heavy Snow]

The 18z NAM 3KM looks good for Wednesday afternoon/evening.

 

http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017013018/057/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png

[HighlandExperience]

Might as well be a month or year. This snowfall map is completely meaningless! Not one map this far out has come even close to what it has shown. I highly doubt anything will change now. One can always hope but honestly these maps are complete crap. Unless you live in Portland.

I understand your skepticism.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS is very light on Precip. A bit further south with the cold air. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z GFS is very light on Precip. A bit further south with the cold air. 

steady improvement ...   

[Trainwreck]

steady improvement ...

Man, you must be fun at parties.

[bainbridgekid]

steady improvement ...   

Friday looks like our chance around the Sound.

 

The more cold air pushes in over the next couple days, the better chance of snow we have then. So yes, the 18z actually is an improvement. It shows an inch or two for Seattle and 2-4 for the SW Interior and Hood Canal in fact.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013018/gfs_asnow_nwus_21.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Friday looks like our chance around the Sound.

 

The more cold air pushes in over the next couple days, the better chance of snow we have then. So yes, the 18z actually is an improvement. It shows an inch or two for Seattle and 2-4 for the SW Interior and Hood Canal in fact.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013018/gfs_asnow_nwus_21.png

Not buying it and it is actually showing a trace to an inch for most of the puget sound. Marginal at best.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Man, you must be fun at parties.

lol!     --- We have had over 5 shots at legit snow here this year that have looked way better than this and none have delivered. SOo I am jaded but not an a** -- Just highly skeptical! I am going to be going on year 5 with very little to no snow here. So, I am a bit pissy about it. So, I guess you could say I have not even been invited to the (snow) party yet, but if I am I can be a lot of fun.  Weeeeeeeeeee!!!!  

[Bryant]

lol! --- We have had over 5 shots at legit snow here this year that have looked way better than this and none have delivered. SOo I am jaded but not an a** -- Just highly skeptical! I am going to be going on year 5 with very little to no snow here. So, I am a bit pissy about it. So, I guess you could say I have not even been invited to the (snow) party yet, but if I am I can be a lot of fun. Weeeeeeeeeee!!!!

Don't worry, he's just a troll

[Jesse]

18z ensembles leave the door open for a trend to more Euro and Canadian like solutions in the future.

[luvssnow_spokane]

My Drone Flight - Sunday Jan. 29th, 2017

I am only shooting in 1080p but will post some 4k shots later. I am still learning. I was able to get about 2.3 miles away with speeds around 40mph on this flight. This thing is amazing!  I am hoping to get some nicer weather so I can capture some artwork with this baby.

 

Here is the footage:

https://www.skypixel.com/share/video/a-short-trip-around-the-sound

[Perturbed Member]

00z NAM sends the cold air impressively far south.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017013100/namconus_T850_nwus_24.png

 

 

 

The northern stream is looking relatively stronger and the low appears to be much further south and east now. Somewhat weak and quite dry.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017013100/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

 

 

 

Compared with the 18z GFS

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

 

 

PDX gets basically no precip through the whole run.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z NAM sends the cold air impressively far south.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017013100/namconus_T850_nwus_24.png

 

 

 

The northern stream is looking relatively stronger and the low appears to be much further south and east now. Somewhat weak and quite dry.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017013100/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

 

 

 

Compared with the 18z GFS

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

 

 

PDX gets basically no precip through the whole run.

Coming together nicely.

[umadbro]

0Z nam was really pretty lame.

[Perturbed Member]

Coming together nicely.

 

The euro has your back.

[Bryant]

0Z nam was really pretty lame.

I thought it was quite nice

[umadbro]

I thought it was quite nice

To each their own.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a lengthy period of record, but this looks like it will easily be the wettest January on record for Burns, Oregon...

[BLI snowman]

00z GFS pretty much kills the entire deformation band.

[Perturbed Member]

Deformation band on the 00z GFS is nonexistent. 0 precip in the valley from it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Shows quite a bit of ZR Friday morning

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Look at the difference at hour 114 between the 00z and the 18z!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_19.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_20.png

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty terrible run for most except BC/Vancouver Island.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013100/gfs_asnow_nwus_20.png

 

That snow near PDX is really sleet btw.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run may bring some Puget Sounders back...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z just blew my mind...

[Deweydog]

The 00z just blew my mind...

528 line gets DANGEROUSLY close to my location.

[MossMan]

So good I take it?

[Perturbed Member]

Huh...well that was an unexpected change for the weekend.

[van city]

#deformationband

[HighlandExperience]

So good I take it?

This should bring snowwizard back. Heights crashing into weekend.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 00z just blew my mind...

Huh? Not seeing anything in the believable range other than cold rain, slop, and ice. Anything past Friday is meaningless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wait WTF! Is this a CFS run for March?!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

[HighlandExperience]

Huh? Not seeing anything in the believable range other than cold rain, slop, and ice. Anything past Friday is meaningless.

Seriously? At least we have shot right now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This should bring snowwizard back. Heights crashing into weekend.

Lol! That is almost a week away... I swear we never learn here.