February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[Steblow]

Euro similar to past runs. Low tracks into eastern WI or so.

 

10-12+ for eastern MN

 

How about for far nw wi?    Thanks man

[Money]

How about for far nw wi?    Thanks man

 

A little more than 12z. Probably 8-12 ish? gosaints gets 15+ 

[Steblow]

Thanks much!  I wonder if the lake will add anything.. sometimes that area can really thrive with the ne wind

[Money]

np what part of NW WI?

[Steblow]

np what part of NW WI?

 

couple miles south of ashland..  Thinking of heading up thurs if it looks promising up there..  ice fishing contest saturday also. well if there's any safe ice on lake superior.  snow on top would be bad

[Money]

Well if it's that far NW, Euro is showing 4-5 ish for them. 20-30 miles south and it's 8+ 

[Steblow]

yeah kinna been stuck in a screw hole on the edges. looked promising for a biggy early for ashland.. milwaukee never in game for all snow.   this is lame

[Snowshoe]

yeah kinna been stuck in a screw hole on the edges. looked promising for a biggy early for ashland.. milwaukee never in game for all snow. this is lame

Late Feb and March is usually big storm time up there.

[Snowlover76]

Not expecting anything more than rain from this

[james1976]

6z GFS looks like a good hit for IA. Any snow maps?

[Tom]

00z EURO seems like it could be a good hit for E NE???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017022000/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017022000/ecmwf_T850_us_6.png

[Tom]

06z GFS...

 

 

[james1976]

06z GFS...

Wow. Gosaints and me get blasted on that run.

[St Paul Storm]

The GFS and many of the ensembles are tough to ignore with regards to being in the south camp. I love the look of the GEM and Euro but based on how this winter has gone I see them starting to babystep towards the GFS soon as they have quite often. Just a hunch. MPX mentioned that many of the top CIPS analogs show C MN with the heaviest swath but those should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Tom]

Wow. Gosaints and me get blasted on that run.

Ya, but I wouldn't really get excited on 06z/18z runs...

[Tom]

12z NAM digs the storm into OK at the end of the run and the Wed system lays down some snow in N/C MN as it tracks thru MSP.  Take it FWIW...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017022012/namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

[james1976]

I wont get excited til Thursday

[St Paul Storm]

12z NAM digs the storm into OK at the end of the run and the Wed system lays down some snow in N/C MN as it tracks thru MSP.  Take it FWIW...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017022012/namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

The NAM and GFS are totally different with the placement and strength of the Wed low. Just to muddle things even more.

[Stormgeek]

GFS doing some interesting shenanigans through 78 on 12z run.

[Tom]

GFS doing some interesting shenanigans through 78 on 12z run.

Looks warmer for NE/IA/WI...

[Steblow]

hopefully a baby step north.. looks slightly (don't take a lot to better from near zero snow) better through 78hrs than 0z and 6z for nw wi

[Steblow]

nice moisture transport

[Tom]

Looks like it's trying to go neg tilt a tad earlier this run...

[Jaycee]

12z GFS is definitely further north than the 06z. Has all rain for us here in Central/Eastern Nebraska. No surprise as the temps are going to soar to near 80 degrees tomorrow-- surprised the NAM even showed snow here. Then again, with a bowling ball type system I could still see this thing staying further SE than this run. Guess we'll have to wait and see!

[Steblow]

wish this big baby would just wrap up and go nuclear... we need another ghd lite storm somewhere.... most of us in the southern and eastern lakes are out of it so lets just see how strong and north we can get this system.

[Steblow]

need this thing to occlude and stall just north of money.

[Tom]

"Mini" Blizzard in IA/MN...40-50mph wind gusts in the comma head...

[St Paul Storm]

Definite tick NW on that run. But this thing has bounced around since late last week. Just noise at this point. Definitely tried to go deep for a few frames there.

[Steblow]

havent seen a euro snow map but i would assume it looks generally like 12z gfs?

[Steblow]

even money might have just thrown in the towel on this one

[St Paul Storm]

havent seen a euro snow map but i would assume it looks generally like 12z gfs?

Haven't seen one either but it's gotta be pretty darn close.

[james1976]

I went from 12 last run to 2 this run. Gonna a sharp cutoff somewhere

[Steblow]

nw trend has been hard to come by for some yrs now..  this might be a storm that has a few nw ticks in it yet... meh who am i kidding... not sure how much nw the euro has in it.  gfs has some ticks yet imo.

[james1976]

Ya id bet on nw trend more than se

[Steblow]

ideal for me would be to get this storm to enter in to sw wisc and head over to just north of money...doable...low prob.. i put it at under 20%

[Steblow]

i miss moneys play by play of the models

[St Paul Storm]

Thermal issues here at the start on the 12z GEM but it still whacks S and C MN into WI.

[james1976]

How are GFS ensembles?

[Steblow]

would have thought the GEM could cut some towards sw wisc.. nope shits its drawers.  

[gosaints]

would have thought the GEM could cut some towards sw wisc.. nope shits its drawers.  

U trying to push this NW.  Money rooting hard for SE.  U r gonna win