Money Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 GEM Ensembles: http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2017022012_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_108.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Castle Rock Lake area up to GRB look good for max totals.. My backyard 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Tom's riding the DGEX. Welcome to the game.Thats storm 2 chitown love on the dgex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 LSE leaning towards a more northern path but says the system on Wed. will determine where this goes: While there may be decent agreement between the ECMWF and theoperational GFS, there remains a huge amount of spread in the GFSensembles on both the QPF and snow amounts, with the biggestspread in the snowfall amounts. This is likely indicative of thespread in the surface low track and the location of the warm air.The system on Wednesday will play into how far south thebaroclinic zone moves, but concerned that it may ooze south morethan surge to the south and that there is a lot of anonymouslywarm air that has to be displaced in a short period of time.Definitely a system that bears watching but way too early todetermine what the impacts will be for the local area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Alright Moneyman lets do this... Whats your track prediction??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Alright Moneyman lets do this... Whats your track prediction??? Anywhere from northern IL up to Green Bay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Thats storm 2 chitown love on the dgexBah! Sorry Tom, I tried. Wait your turn. Haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Tom's riding the DGEX. Welcome to the game.Lol...you can wish but I assume that model is seeing the second storm since it's out to Day 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 gosaints what's your prediction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 snowmobile trails will be down to mud before the storm up there so i need to be in a 6-12" warning to even think about going up.. 3-6" wont cut it. Too late. Trails are trash. Pic from St. Germain, Wi Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Anywhere from northern IL up to Green Bay. gosaints what's your prediction?I think It ends up tracking from about the Dubuque to Port Washington or so... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 I think It ends up tracking from about the Dubuque to Port Washington or so... Could see that. I think you're in a very good spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Too late. Trails are trash. Pic from St. Germain, Wi Yeah thats why i came home friday from ashland area.. needing 6-12" up there if they can manage to save some ice base Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Could see that. I think you're in a very good spot. Will only be the 972nd time I have been wrong on a cutter track. The lack of snowcover, cold air, and the AO are what are giving me pause. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 What do winds look like on 12z Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Point forecast changed for me on Thursday night and Friday to rain/snow mix vs all snow it had earlier, however in this afternoon's updated forecast discussion from Omaha it says there could be a stripe of 6+" of snow along and north of I-80. It is possible that somewhere in NE to IA, there will be a band of 6+-inch snowfallamounts. Right now, that risk looks highest along and north of I-80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Gfs similar to 12z but a bit faster Takes the low from eastern Iowa through Racine/Kenosha area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Snow axis shifted SE a bit tho GB goes from nothing on 12z to almost a foot of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Point forecast changed for me on Thursday night and Friday to rain/snow mix vs all snow it had earlier, however in this afternoon's updated forecast discussion from Omaha it says there could be a stripe of 6+" of snow along and north of I-80. It is possible that somewhere in NE to IA, there will be a band of 6+-inch snowfallamounts. Right now, that risk looks highest along and north of I-80. I'm confused by this. Are there 2 storms we're tracking in this time-frame? Initial wave gives us pretty much nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Doesnt wrap up as hard... Viable solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 For us in northern Iowa locals say highest accums will be along and north of a Tama to Dubuque line. For now anyway... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 shame this wont realize its full potential to wind up and crush the arrowhead. dryslot will be 69 spectacular over me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 I'm confused by this. Are there 2 storms we're tracking in this time-frame? Initial wave gives us pretty much nothing.They're talking about the Thursday night/Friday system. I'm surprised they said down to I-80 and north of there. I guess they are giving room for any shift, but right now I think it's going to be up near Norfolk and east of there that gets the most snow from this first storm. There is another wave on Sunday that looks to drop a few inches over most of eastern Nebraska. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 shame this wont realize its full potential to wind up and crush the arrowhead. dryslot will be 69 spectacular over meshame this wont realize its full potential to wind up and crush the arrowhead. dryslot will be 69 spectacular over meTurn this south for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Turn this south for meNever say ho in a horse race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 They're talking about the Thursday night/Friday system. I'm surprised they said down to I-80 and north of there. I guess they are giving room for any shift, but right now I think it's going to be up near Norfolk and east of there that gets the most snow from this first storm. There is another wave on Sunday that looks to drop a few inches over most of eastern Nebraska. I just want to make sure I'm not getting my hopes up, but the models are saying that the half an inch of rain we're supposed to get in SE Wisconsin on Thursday might actually be snow? Or is my desperation for snow clouding my judgment? That half an inch will be the end of Alpine Valley, but if it's actual snow they'll probably make it into mid March. Super important storm for me, and probably Alpine Valley. It seems like every holiday weekend when they'd have really good business, it would rain or be awful and hardly anyone would show up. All the resorts down here are having a super bad year and they need the rain in the forecast to turn to snow, badly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Turn this south for me after tonight I'll be joining your team if the models dont get juicier up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 I just want to make sure I'm not getting my hopes up, but the models are saying that the half an inch of rain we're supposed to get in SE Wisconsin on Thursday might actually be snow? Or is my desperation for snow clouding my judgment? That half an inch will be the end of Alpine Valley, but if it's actual snow they'll probably make it into mid March. Super important storm for me, and probably Alpine Valley. It seems like every holiday weekend when they'd have really good business, it would rain or be awful and hardly anyone would show up. All the resorts down here are having a super bad year and they need the rain in the forecast to turn to snow, badly. they better be able to blow snow to make it in to march Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Gfs ensemble mean looks almost identical to op gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 after tonight I'll be joining your team if the models dont get juicier up north.Demarcus cousins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 GFS still throwing out 12+ for some? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Was on the trails thurs. In Vilas county. Not great, but Presque Isle and Manitowish waters were good. Put on 105mi and was way better than expected. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2017 Report Share Posted February 20, 2017 Gfs ensemble mean looks almost identical to op gfsYep snow shield similar or slightly NW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2017 Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 Ya just saw the ensemble snow mean. Highest snow axis was from about rochester northeast thru iron mountain. EPS mean about the same though not a ambitious with totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2017 Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 St Paul Storm- Plenty of love for you on the individual ensembles as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2017 Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 St Paul Storm- Plenty of love for you on the individual ensembles as wellI just took a peak. Yeah there are a few nice hits. Nice to see the general NW ticks today on the GFS and it's a little more comforting that the mean ensemble is closer to the GFS op run. I'm still on the fringe though and you're still looking golden regardless of any shifts. More drama tonight and tomorrow I'm sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2017 Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 Nam is weak and south Surface low sw of Chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 21, 2017 Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 not buying that occlude kick east to that extreme on nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 21, 2017 Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 The NAM is virtually worthless this far out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21, 2017 Report Share Posted February 21, 2017 GFS North Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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