February 23rd-25th Winter Storm Potential

[Money]

Total QPF:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022300/072/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

[NEJeremy]

NAM has been coming south

That's true. I meant it's the one that is furthest north. I keep thinking this is starting earlier tomorrow, when the real show for this area and northeast isn't until tomorrow night and Friday. Still some model runs to see what happens!

[gosaints]

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017022300/072/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

Milwaukee gets almost as much snow as MSP on the GEM.

[james1976]

Local met just mentioned the SE shift on the 10 news and said more counties to the SE will proll be added into the Watch

[Bellona]

Local met just mentioned the SE shift on the 10 news and said more counties to the SE will proll be added into the Watch

Zomg!!! They never do that around here! Local mets in Iowa suck when it comes to winter storms. Imho.

[james1976]

Im still amazed at the SE trend.

[Bellona]

Im still amazed at the SE trend.

Me too! Now if it goes back nw tomorrow I'm never tracking a winter storm again!! Lol

[bud2380]

Local met just mentioned the SE shift on the 10 news and said more counties to the SE will proll be added into the Watch

Had to be Terry Swails, right? I like him. But I don't watch channel 2 very often

[Money]

I would honestly not pay attention to the GFS/GEM/EURO etc after tonight. Start pay attention to the shorter term models (RAP/HRRR/NAM/RGEM) These are typically the better models within 24 hours or so.

[james1976]

Zomg!!! They never do that around here! Local mets in Iowa suck when it comes to winter storms. Imho.

 

Ikr? Schnack is way conservative but even he mentioned it tonight.

[james1976]

Had to be Terry Swails, right? I like him. But I don't watch channel 2 very often

No it was Schnack

[Grizzcoat]

Zomg!!! They never do that around here! Local mets in Iowa suck when it comes to winter storms. Imho.

The ones in the DSM market are so pro warm weather its disgusting. Ed Wilson on 13 is the king.-- and a horrible met.

[Money]

Storm is just starting to develop in Kansas on the RAP/HRRR at the end of their runs.

 

RAP:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2017022303/021/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

[Bellona]

I like the Schnack but I think he's too conswrvative sometimes. Better than than Ian guy we had a while ago. We could have had a 10000 year blizzard and he would have said flurries!!

[Money]

Ukie at 48:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

[gosaints]

And the Ukie at 36

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif

[Money]

And the Ukie at 36

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif

 

Looks like it occludes and shifts east?

[gosaints]

Looks like it occludes and shifts east?

Ya all the globals have quite a similar track so far tonight.... We will see what Dr. No says later tonight

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie actually deepens at 60 and throws some nice precip on the backside---

[Money]

Looks like models are converging on a track from NE KS to northern MO/SE IA and then ENE up towards Chicago.

[gosaints]

Looks like models are converging on a track from NE KS to northern MO/SE IA and then ENE up towards Chicago.

La crosse still riding 5-10 inches north of a austin mn to winona mn line.  with the caveat at the end of their wording that they dont know what the hell to think

 

This was right before the GFS and the GGEM

[Money]

La crosse still riding 5-10 inches north of a austin mn to winona mn line.  with the caveat at the end of their wording that they dont know what the hell to think

 

This was right before the GFS and the GGEM

 

I don't blame them. This setup screams NW trend. Obv. lack of snowcover/warm temps etc but who knows. Models are consistent with a SE track the last day or so.

[gosaints]

I don't blame them. This setup screams NW trend. Obv. lack of snowcover/warm temps etc but who knows. Models are consistent with a SE track the last day or so.

agree...

[gosaints]

ensembles are slow tonight

[Money]

Ukie precip totals:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

 

20 MM= 0.8 QPF

25 MM= 1.0 QPF

30 MM= 1.2 QPF

35 MM= 1.4 QPF

 

Roughly 

[Money]

ensembles are slow tonight

 

GFS ensembles looked pretty locked in

 

Looks similar to 18z but more in the heaviest band?

[james1976]

Was just gonna ask what Ukie QPF looked like.....thanks!

[gosaints]

GFS ensembles looked pretty locked in

 

Looks similar to 18z but more in the heaviest band?

About the same maybe even a little less in the mean for the heaviest band.  They are pretty locked in though at least it seems

[Money]

About the same maybe even a little less in the mean for the heaviest band.  They are pretty locked in though at least it seems

 

Looks like less QPF hence the lower totals. Overall though not bad. 8+ for here. 

[gosaints]

Looks like less QPF hence the lower totals. Overall though not bad. 8+ for here.

Ya its still.solid... Hoping the euro doesnt cut back qpf as the other globals havent tonight

[gosaints]

MSP  discussion

850FXUS63 KMPX 230352 AABAFDMPXArea Forecast Discussion...UPDATEDNational Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN952 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017.UPDATE...Issued at 952 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017The 00Z guidance is beginning to come in and the NAM remainsthe furthest west with the axis of heaviest snowfall amongst theglobal models (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian). It has trended southeastslightly with time, but it has a lot more trending to do beforecatching up with the southeasternmost guidance. The 00Z GFS hastrended even further east and now barely scrapes the metro withmeasurable snow. Confidence is much lower than 24 hours ago.Generally, south central Minnesota to west central Wisconsinremains the best area for heavy accumulations and the big questionis where the back edge of the snow will set up. Right now thereis too little confidence to answer that question and will need towait for the rest of the 00Z guidance. Therefore, there are noplans to adjust the headlines yet, however it is looking increasinglylikely some of the Winter Storm Watch will need to be cancelled.Did adjust PoPs and snow amounts according to the 00Z model trend.Further adjustments will be needed overnight.

 

[Stormgeek]

I give up on winter in this D**n state. My towel is currently reaching escape velocity.

[gosaints]

Euro riding iowa border at 36

[gosaints]

Very similar track

[Money]

Another shift SE with the snow band tho

[gosaints]

Another shift SE with the snow band tho

Ya especially your way. Subtle changes further west...

 

Has to be overdoing ratios here though. Spits out like 19 inches here

[Money]

Over 8-9 here on the euro looks like it has a good backside snow as well

[NEJeremy]

Does anyone have Euro maps or text?! Thanks in advance!

[jcwxguy]

Lnk please