Tom Posted May 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 12z NAM 3km has a nasty looking line of storms sweeping through OMA/LNK between 7-9pm.... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017051612/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 No way we don't get a moderate risk for the winds tonight. Squall line looks insanely powerful when it comes through here tonight on the NAM especially. Can't wait! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 No way we don't get a moderate risk for the winds tonight. Squall line looks insanely powerful when it comes through here tonight on the NAM especially. Can't wait!Take some night time lighting shots! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 I got my garden all planted yesterday an picked up .30" of rain over night. I want to see some nasty storms tonight, just hoping the wind isn't overly terrible! Here is what Hastings NWS is thinking. NebWx, I think your right there will be an upgrade to moderate risk this afternoon, I would be shocked if there wasn't! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 I think this is the first PDS tornado watch of the season!! That is some high probabilities!!! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0220.html Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (90%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (80%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (70%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (30%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (60%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Good hunting out there NE peeps. Don't care for Tors after dark personally, but stay safe when you can! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 I think this is the first PDS tornado watch of the season!! That is some high probabilities!!! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0220.html Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (90%)Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoesHigh (80%)WindProbability of 10 or more severe wind eventsHigh (70%)Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knotsMod (30%)HailProbability of 10 or more severe hail eventsHigh (80%)Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inchesMod (60%)Combined Severe Hail/WindProbability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind eventsHigh (>95%)Crazy! That tornado warned storm in Oklahoma looks monstrous. Surprised we didn't get upgraded to a moderate risk for wind, but I'm sure we'll see some wild storms here shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 I'm on my phone so I may be wrong, but it looks like a cell in the south metro is scanning at 65,000ft. T-warned now. New t-storm watch just issued for all of the Twin Cities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Reports of a tornado touch down in Cameron, WI not far from Rice Lake. Debris in the air and reportedly a mobile home park has been destroyed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 trim.C56F6FE0-EDB3-413B-A71E-50E7B82424FA.MOV 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Sorry for the language trim.C56F6FE0-EDB3-413B-A71E-50E7B82424FA.MOVThat's pretty sweet! Just heard from the TWC that NWS in OMA measured 85mph winds! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 That line hitting OMA is bowing out... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=OAX-N0Q-1-12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 Sorry for the language trim.C56F6FE0-EDB3-413B-A71E-50E7B82424FA.MOVThat's an impressive shelf cloud!! You get any wind or hail damage?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 That's an impressive shelf cloud!! You get any wind or hail damage?? The heavens have finally woken up for NE peeps. Looks like a lot of heavy/training rainfall for some folks near LNK/OMA. Your farther NW, right?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 That's an impressive shelf cloud!! You get any wind or hail damage??Nothing like Omaha got, but there's some branches down and what not. There's some real damage up in West Omaha near my old house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 I left Omaha to chase down TX/OK today and of course Omaha gets a huge storm when I'm gone. Thankfully, it wasn't too bad at my house for my wife who is home with my 2 little ones.I saw a tornado near Mclean, TX before we started getting pelted by tennis to baseball sized hail! Largest hail I've ever personally seen. Before that hail started, I got hit in the temple with a rogue ping pong ball sized hail. It left a mark!Our new chase vehicle has some very large dents on it, but didn't lose or crack a windshield.Kept chasing that cell and it had a rain wrapped tornado for at least another hour, but never got a clear view of it again. The cell to our south was the one that went near Elk City, OK and there were reports of GRAPE FRUIT sized hail!I have a down day tomorrow to relax before the next potentially big day on Thursday. I'll post pics and vid when I can. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 IA in the epicenter for today's action... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 06z High Rez NAM showing a bowed-out line of storms firing in E IA during dinner time... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017051706/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017051706/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_18.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 The heavens have finally woken up for NE peeps. Looks like a lot of heavy/training rainfall for some folks near LNK/OMA. Your farther NW, right??Yep, I'm straight west of Omaha by 80 miles, and northwest of Lincoln by 60 miles. I thought I was going to miss out on all the action last night. The storms that formed early and pounded the I-80 corridor literally missed me by about 30 miles. I lucked out though with the storms out in North Platte, those storms swung through over night and dropped 1.3" of rain. Perfect amount, and I avoided all the damage! Once we get things to warm back up my garden should take off!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 Round 2 baby! Bring it! Hoping these storms southwest spin up something!! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0231_radar_init.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 Round 2 baby! Bring it! Hoping these storms southwest spin up something!! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0231_radar_init.gifThe SLP is taking a nearly perfect track for SE NE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 Hail from yesterday in Texas. These weren't even the biggest ones I'm sure. Just grabbed a couple and took a pic! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 Hail from yesterday in Texas. These weren't even the biggest ones I'm sure. Just grabbed a couple and took a pic! Heard a lot of peeps lost car windows and got plenty of "hood tattoos" as chase mementos. I don't own a vehicle I'd sacrifice like that, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 2nd day in a row for a weather watch here. I think we just equaled the total of all of last spring and summer. Storms in IA and S MN look healthy, and semi discrete. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 Numerous tornado warnings popping up in SE IA...some of our posters look like they are in the way... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 17, 2017 Report Share Posted May 17, 2017 Heard a lot of peeps lost car windows and got plenty of "hood tattoos" as chase mementos. I don't own a vehicle I'd sacrifice like that, lolYep we saw a couple of chaser vehicles with no back window. My chase partner's wife was none to happy to hear about the new dents in the vehicle! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 A nice line moved through my area this evening. I avoided anything severe... no hail, sub-60 wind. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 A nice line moved through my area this evening. I avoided anything severe... no hail, sub-60 wind.High Rez NAM did a nice job forecasting that line... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 That line is flaring up some nasty storms! Crossing the Mississippi River into IL ATM...we def have some members in the vicinity of these cells. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 Got rocked here. I posted in the May thread. Prolly should have here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 Had a nice line move through earlier. Some trees came and down and some shingles came off my roof. Waiting for line two... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 That line is flaring up some nasty storms! Crossing the Mississippi River into IL ATM...we def have some members in the vicinity of these cells.Nice looking storm just west of De Kalb looks nasty, nice hook showing up on it. Also a storm just went tornado warned around the Rockford area. Hopefully the Rockford Peaches woman's baseball stadium will be ok, LOL! I love that show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 The active weather looks to continue tomorrow. This could be one of the biggest day's of the year, wouldn't be surprised to see a high risk by tomorrow afternoon. Those storms look to ride up into our area leading to more heavy rain. My area is in a Flash Flood Watch and it looks like 1-2" of rain looks likely on top of the 2.4" I have already seen the past two days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 The active weather looks to continue tomorrow. This could be one of the biggest day's of the year, wouldn't be surprised to see a high risk by tomorrow afternoon. Those storms look to ride up into our area leading to more heavy rain. My area is in a Flash Flood Watch and it looks like 1-2" of rain looks likely on top of the 2.4" I have already seen the past two days!youreally think Friday will have severe? Kinda looks like a meh setup to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 High risk has been issued! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 Today looks like it could be one heck of a day. Everyone with a camera and a bicycle will be out chasing. Hopefully everyone stays safe, but man when I see that pink for tornadoes with a significant hatching I get the shivers.I do not know where our posters from down that way are, but please stay safe. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 Unreal! ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, very large hail and wind damage is expected to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains from this afternoon into this evening and overnight. Some strong, long-lived tornadoes are expected, along with hail to near 4 inches in diameter, over parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Large hail, tornadoes and wind damage also will be possible outside of these areas across parts of the southern and central Plains. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail also are expected across parts of the lower Great Lakes region to western New England this afternoon and early evening. This is going to be one hell of a day from what I can see, the shear and instability are off the charts. Hope everyone is ready for this down in KS/OK. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 According to the 12z Highrez NAM, Fri looks to be a nasty day for our KS/OK members! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017051812/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_40.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 So two storms just formed in the area of the PDS tornado watch, within minutes they are already showing signs of developing a hook. These storms are going to go bonkers today. Crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 18, 2017 Report Share Posted May 18, 2017 So two storms just formed in the area of the PDS tornado watch, within minutes they are already showing signs of developing a hook. These storms are going to go bonkers today. Crazy. Hail is growing, holy cow this should be tornado warned really soon. At 141 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles east ofGould, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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