April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but PDX is in pretty historic territory with regards to lack of warmth so far this year.

 

Our max so far is 63, and we may reach next weekend without going any higher.

 

This is the list of years with the latest "first 64" occurrence:

 

1) 4/18/1950

2) 4/15/1945

3) 4/11/1954

4) 2017

5) 4/8/1957

 

We just passed 1957 for 4th place. Interesting that every year on the top-5 list is from the 1940's and 1950's. Our closest approach since was back in 2009, when the "first 64" occurred on April 5th.

Good information. Things could change obviously, but if current models are to be believed we could break the record. As it stands now, third place is basically a lock.

[epiceast]

Long range Euro looks good for favorable weather here.

[crf450ish]

33* and very light snow here in Fruitland Washington. WOW!

[TT-SEA]

I bet!

 

Not a drop here yet.   MM5 shows that we wake up to sun as well.   Tomorrow afternoon looks a bit more interesting.  

 

8 a.m. tomorrow...

 

 

 

WRF actually did a good job... we are waking up to a sunny morning around the Seattle area.

 

 

[stuffradio]

It's a gloomy pouring rain kind of day right now. So far I'm at 3.24" of rain this month.

[TT-SEA]

It's a gloomy pouring rain kind of day right now. So far I'm at 3.24" of rain this month.

 

You might have a nicer afternoon than we will down here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

WRF actually did a good job... we are waking up to a sunny morning around the Seattle area.

 

 

 

It nailed it up here, I figured we'd at least have some lingering clouds but it's completely sunny this morning. However, it looks like some clouds/rain will be moving in during the afternoon.

[Jesse]

Cloudy here this morning as god intended.

[TT-SEA]

GFS advertising a nice Easter Sunday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

[TT-SEA]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful morning in North Bend.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful morning in North Bend.

 

Might be a stormy afternoon if we can hang onto to partial sunshine which looks to be case based on the satellite.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a warm and sunny Easter Sunday as well...

 

[Jesse]

Some ensemble disagreement for next weekend. About 2/3 of the members have troughing digging offshore giving us our first shot at 65-70 on Easter Sunday. The others show troughing staying closer to us giving cooler and wetter conditions.

[Front Ranger]

Long range Euro looks good for favorable weather here.

Hmmm...

[TT-SEA]

Some ensemble disagreement for next weekend. About 2/3 of the members have troughing digging offshore giving us our first shot at 65-70 on Easter Sunday. The others show troughing staying closer to us giving cooler and wetter conditions.

 

Thanks for the update.   I was expecting 100% perfect ensemble agreement.    You seem to only have one mission at this time of year... that there are no signs of spring and there will never be a nice day.  And that its extremely important that we have more rain and mountain snow no matter how wet is out there.  Just relax... everything is late and there has been close to a record setting lack of warmth and certainly a record setting amount of rain.    You seemed bothered when people try to find any enjoyment even in the breaks.   

[Phil]

Some ensemble disagreement for next weekend. About 2/3 of the members have troughing digging offshore giving us our first shot at 65-70 on Easter Sunday. The others show troughing staying closer to us giving cooler and wetter conditions.

The offshore solution makes more sense IMO, given the temporary increase in the east-Asian mountain torque that will be ongoing w/ MJO propagation, leading to a subsequent retraction of the NPAC jet and wavebreaking around 160W.

 

This will act to build heights above the subtropical jet over the NE Pacific, but with the underlying dateline subsidence regime holding for awhile, there's nothing to maintain the Aleutian cyclone/NW Canadian ridge for very long, without central Pacific convection forcing a favorable WAF/DHR state for said Aleutian low. So, the Canadian ridge will retrograde W/NW and troughing will return towards the end of April or early May.

[TT-SEA]

The offshore solution makes more sense IMO, given the temporary increase in the east-Asian mountain torque that will be ongoing w/ MJO propagation, leading to a subsequent retraction of the NPAC jet and wavebreaking around 160W.

 

This will act to build heights above the subtropical jet over the NE Pacific, but with the underlying dateline subsidence regime holding for awhile, there's nothing to maintain the Aleutian cyclone/NW Canadian ridge for very long, without central Pacific convection forcing a favorable WAF/DHR state for said Aleutian low. So, the Canadian ridge will retrograde W/NW and troughing will return towards the end of April or early May.

 

We might get a 2-week break??    Serious question... I was expecting 2 days at the most.

[IbrChris]

Posted on Komo news

from NWS 2:30 am Sunday discussion

 

.SHORT TERM...Here I sit looking model to model,

seeking a solution that won`t make me hit the bottle.

 

Though I must admit perpetual sogginess makes forecasting a breeze.

 

Debating whether or not Seattle is under a curse,

I decided to type this discussion in verse.

 

So if this weather poem does not please,

do remember I studied science and not humanities.

Let`s start this off on a happy note,

with words so rare they leap from my throat.

 

A weak ridge aloft will keep conditions dry and a break in the clouds will bring some sun.

 

This should last for most of today,

so take this rare opportunity to go out and play.

An approaching upper level trough will sadly kill this fun,

with an incoming front bringing rain overnight tonight and into Mon.

The advancing trough behind this front,

will allow showers to continue compounding this affront.

 

Once the trough passes by Monday night yet another ridge will be overhead.

 

Temps will rise if only a tease,

for they still can`t escape beyond the 50s.

 

The next weather system looms to the south filling this forecaster with dread.

As it lifts northward, it looks to return precipitation for Wed. SMR

.LONG TERM...Rain will spread as far as the eye can see,

even though models still tend to disagree.

 

On the track of the low but this point is fairly moot,

because no matter who`s right it`s just going to rain some more.

 

Wet conditions persist for the second half of the week,

so you`d best be accustomed to shoes that squeak.

 

And so at my heart these models tore

as I looked upon them like The Raven from days of yore.

 

I continue to ask if Seattle shall see consistent sun

and they continue to seemingly answer...nevermore. SMR

Best thing I've read on the forum in quite awhile. Nicely done.

[IbrChris]

I expect the rather damp/unsettled weather will continue, at least through the third week of April, but the precip amounts will lessen with more of a showery regime and orographic component. Areas on the lee side of the Cascades may be mostly dry with plenty of sun while anywhere with any appreciable terrain sees a lot of clouds and showers whether west of the Cascades or across NE Washington and the Blue Mtns. Might sneak in something close to 70 in the next ~14 days but it isn't clear at this point what day(s) other than it likely won't be in the next week or so.

[TT-SEA]

I expect the rather damp/unsettled weather will continue, at least through the third week of April, but the precip amounts will lessen with more of a showery regime and orographic component. Areas on the lee side of the Cascades may be mostly dry with plenty of sun while anywhere with any appreciable terrain sees a lot of clouds and showers whether west of the Cascades or across NE Washington and the Blue Mtns. Might sneak in something close to 70 in the next ~14 days but it isn't clear at this point what day(s) other than it likely won't be in the next week or so.

 

Yeah... I expect it would almost have to be just dumb luck with timing if it gets warm for one day considering how persistent the offshore trough has been since the end of January.

 

Day 10 of the 12Z ECMWF shows the same endless pattern.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls02/data/data02/scratch/ps2png-atls02-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-xSJ6Gb.png

[Jesse]

Thanks for the update. I was expecting 100% perfect ensemble agreement. You seem to only have one mission at this time of year... that there are no signs of spring and there will never be a nice day. And that its extremely important that we have more rain and mountain snow no matter how wet is out there. Just relax... everything is late and there has been close to a record setting lack of warmth and certainly a record setting amount of rain. You seemed bothered when people try to find any enjoyment even in the breaks.

Touchy!

 

I didn't say anything about hoping for the cool and wet solution. A mild and dry Easter Sunday would be kind of nice. Just breathe, dude. It will be ok.

[Jesse]

Best thing I've read on the forum in quite awhile. Nicely done.

I've seen better "poetry" from third graders.

[TT-SEA]

Touchy!

 

I didn't say anything about hoping for the cool and wet solution. A mild and dry Easter Sunday would be kind of nice. Just breathe, dude.

 

Don't play that game.  Matt called you out last night appropriately.   I am just going with the flow and looking for the breaks and expecting nothing good.

[Phil]

We might get a 2-week break?? Serious question... I was expecting 2 days at the most.

Well, I'd call it a general progression towards a milder pattern lasting a few weeks, more-so than what is advertised..this as opposed to some sort of prolonged break in the pattern. With time, the Pacific jet/cyclonic breaking will retrograde southwestward, opening the door to periodic ridging downstream over W-Canada/PNW. This due to a combination of seasonal changes in the wavetrain and changes in the tropical forcing.

 

Eventually the ridge builds father NW above the Aleutians, and troughing redevelops downstream.

[IbrChris]

The trees in my yard have informed me of the change of seasons, along with the increased daylight, even if the temperatures and abundant precip suggest a continuation of winter.

[IbrChris]

I've seen better "poetry" from third graders.

Well I guess take that comment for what it's worth...lol.

 

The value of "art" is in the eye of the beholder...or reader as it were.

[Jesse]

Don't play that game. Matt called you out last night appropriately. I am just going with the flow and looking for the breaks and expecting nothing good.

He didn't really say anything other than state the obvious. I disliked the record warmth last spring and am glad to mix things up this year. That doesn't mean I am against all nice weather.

 

You just need to relax.

[IbrChris]

Well, I'd call it a general progression towards a milder pattern lasting a few weeks, more-so than what is advertised..this as opposed to some sort of prolonged break in the pattern. With time, the Pacific jet/cyclonic breaking will retrograde southwestward, opening the door to periodic ridging downstream over W-Canada/PNW. This due to a combination of seasonal changes in the wavetrain and changes in the tropical forcing.

 

Eventually the ridge builds father NW above the Aleutians, and troughing redevelops downstream.

No doubt eventually we'll see a decent ridge at some point. Can't recall the last one that wasn't a simple shortwave affair.

[TT-SEA]

He didn't really say anything other than state the obvious. I disliked the record warmth last spring and am glad to mix things up this year. That doesn't mean I am against all nice weather.

 

You just need to relax.

Ironic patronizing.

[Phil]

No doubt eventually we'll see a decent ridge at some point. Can't recall the last one that wasn't a simple shortwave affair.

Tough call IMO. The lackluster dateline convection makes it very difficult to sustain west coast ridging. Until that changes, I'm leaning towards a long term continuation of the GOA trough/zonal flow regime, with the typical intraseasonal burps.

[Jesse]

Ironic patronizing.

Well, you went off on me for discussing the ensembles. Just a bit of an overreaction.

 

Do you have another SAD trip lined up soon? Sounds like you might be due.

[TT-SEA]

Well, you went off on me for discussing the ensembles. Just a bit of an overreaction.

 

Do you have another SAD trip lined up soon? Sounds like you might be due.

 

More ironic patronizing.   Sounds like I am talking to Phil.   

[Front Ranger]

Tough call. The lackluster dateline convection makes it very difficult to sustain west coast ridging. Until that changes, I'm leaning towards a long term continuation of the GOA trough/zonal flow regime.

Of course, as spring progresses towards summer, even if that regime continues it will almost certainly not result in a continuation of the same weather seen in the PNW this spring.

[TT-SEA]

Of course, as spring progresses towards summer, even if that regime continues it will almost certainly not result in a continuation of the same weather seen in the PNW this spring.

 

Yeah... it usually does not rain almost every day through the summer.   But it certainly can (and has) done that through May before.

[Phil]

Of course, as spring progresses towards summer, even if that regime continues it will almost certainly not result in a continuation of the same weather seen in the PNW this spring.

Are you actually suggesting that weather changes with the seasons? Outrageous.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... it usually does not rain almost every day through the summer. But it certainly can (and has) done that through May before.

Very unusual, but yes it's possible. My point was more along the lines of GOA troughing and seasonal wavelengths.

[epiceast]

Snowing right now!

 

Still think the Euro would result in decent spring weather a weak from now. 850mb temps look alright and the flow is southerly with a long fetch over great basin.

[Jesse]

More ironic patronizing. Sounds like I am talking to Phil.

That was below the belt.

 

I am a-ok with a sunny Easter. Just seemed like you were venting a bit of pent up frustration with your reaction to my post. It's fine I suppose.

[Phil]

Very unusual, but yes it's possible. My point was more along the lines of GOA troughing and seasonal wavelengths.

Very easy to have GOA troughing in the summer. That doesn't mean it will produce the same surface weather conditions as it would in April, but that's not what I'm referring to regardless.