April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, it's really odd. You'd think I was on the level of Phil here. Difference is I actually did all of it. I'm glad I have you on Facebook so at least somebody can realize I'm not making it all up.

 

You have never been a person to make up anything... ever.  

[Phil]

You forgot to include 1972 in that mix.

Sorry, here's 1972.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/55F6D145-210B-4449-9251-DD6B2BAB20C8_zpsbbfe5yj1.png

 

It's better all-around, but there was a bunch of dateline convection that summer, which isn't analogous to 2017 thus far:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F611FFFA-CC54-4A64-8059-B689FD1AEE07_zpsq21qy02m.png

[TT-SEA]

Sorry, here's 1972.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/55F6D145-210B-4449-9251-DD6B2BAB20C8_zpsbbfe5yj1.png

 

It's better in the IO, but there was a bunch of dateline convection that summer, which isn't analogous to 2017 thus far:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F611FFFA-CC54-4A64-8059-B689FD1AEE07_zpsq21qy02m.png

 

 

You were doing a composite of all those years though.   

[Deweydog]

Ok. Pretty strange how seem to be so keen on spinning it as a bad or privileged thing to do. I actually made many sacrifices that you know nothing about.

 

Did your parents help pay for your college? I have a feeling I know the answer.

It's not a bad thing. Never said it was. Everyone has to make sacrifices and has a story, it doesn't automatically make you special.

 

And no, my parents were not in a position to provide much of any help thanks to a fishing industry that was in shambles during the late '80's and early '90's. I saved quite a bit during a few summers deckhanding on charters, had a few modest scholarships, financial aid and some lovely student debt which I managed to pay off early. I'm sure that's the answer you had in mind.

[Phil]

You were doing a composite of all those years though.

Cut me some slack. I'm doing this all from my phone.

[Jesse]

It's not a bad thing. Never said it was. Everyone has to make sacrifices and has a story, it doesn't automatically make you special.

 

And no, my parents were not in a position to provide much of any help thanks to a fishing industry that was in shambles during the late '80's and early '90's. I saved quite a bit during a few summers deckhanding on charters, had a few modest scholarships, financial aid and some lovely student debt which I managed to pay off early. I'm sure that's the answer you had in mind.

Never said it made me special. Those are your words.

 

Thank you for sharing your story. I am happy for you that you had the luxury to commit several years of your life to law school. Not everyone does.

[Jesse]

You have never been a person to make up anything... ever.

Thank you. I value honesty.

[epiceast]

Never said it made me special. Those are your words.

 

Thank you for sharing your story. I am happy for you that you had the luxury to commit several years of your life to law school. Not everyone does.

Aren't you planning on going to grad school? Let me tell you it's a much longer and windier road than law school(speaking as a first year grad school student).

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 18Z still shows a great weekend and a perfect Easter Sunday.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_25.png

[Front Ranger]

I joined the Army National Guard to help pay for college. No financial assistance from parents, but I got a 4 year degree, no student loan debt, and now own a couple properties.

 

There are many ways to make it happen without having it gifted to you, and all of them require some sacrifice.

[stuffradio]

Ok. Pretty strange how seem to be so keen on spinning it as an irresponsible or privileged thing to do. I actually made many sacrifices that you know nothing about.

 

Did your parents help pay for your college? I have a feeling I know the answer.

I paid for my University. Having scholarships allowed you to volunteer, despite any additional sacrifices you have made. Not everyone gets scholarships. I volunteered at a camp for 7 summers in a row, but then had to quit so I could start making money to pay off my schooling.

[DareDuck]

I don't get what's so bad about having your parents pay for school? Isn't that most people's dream? Being able to send your kids to college and have them start out in the best position possible.

 

We're always told that ideally you should be able to pay for your kids tuition. So why does the kid get flack for having their parents pay for school when that's been their parents ambition?

[Front Ranger]

I don't get what's so bad about having your parents pay for school? Isn't that most people's dream? Being able to send your kids to college and have them start out in the best position possible.

 

We're always told that ideally you should be able to pay for your kids tuition. So why does the kid get flack for having their parents pay for school when that's been their parents ambition?

I don't think anyone said it was "bad". Just a luxury that many people don't have.

[DareDuck]

I don't think anyone said it was "bad". Just a luxury that many people don't have.

I don't think anyone hear explicitly said it, but there's generally a stigma against people who had their parents pay for their education. It's almost like we didn't deserve that chance because we had the luxury of not having to pay for school. I still worked and volunteered throughout my teens, I was just fortunate enough to not have to work to pay for my education.

[Jesse]

I don't get what's so bad about having your parents pay for school? Isn't that most people's dream? Being able to send your kids to college and have them start out in the best position possible.

 

We're always told that ideally you should be able to pay for your kids tuition. So why does the kid get flack for having their parents pay for school when that's been their parents ambition?

There's nothing bad about it at all. Unless you subscribe to some sort of puritanical form of morality that operates under the assumption that if you didn't suffer for to some degree it is somehow less valuable. There is of course some truth to that, but things are far more nuanced in reality.

 

I was only making a counterpoint to Matt's claim that volunteering for three years to help pay for school is somehow a "luxury", when many have it much easier.

 

All that being said, I hope to be in a financial position to provide college for my future children.

[Jesse]

I paid for my University. Having scholarships allowed you to volunteer, despite any additional sacrifices you have made. Not everyone gets scholarships. I volunteered at a camp for 7 summers in a row, but then had to quit so I could start making money to pay off my schooling.

That's awesome. And yes I am grateful for my scholarships. Although obviously they don't cover everything. I have also paid a good deal out of pocket.

[Jesse]

Aren't you planning on going to grad school? Let me tell you it's a much longer and windier road than law school(speaking as a first year grad school student).

It could be in my future for sure. One thing at a time. But I am sure it is very difficult. I have several friends who have gone to or are in grad school and have heard as much.

[stuffradio]

That's awesome. And yes I am grateful for my scholarships. Although obviously the don't cover everything. I have also paid a good deal out of pocket.

BTW, I'm not really attacking you, if it does read that way. This whole volunteering kerfuffle is just funny.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Scholarships.

Being a skilled athlete and top notch scholar paid for my schooling. My mom was dead.

[Jesse]

Being a skilled athlete and top notch scholar paid for my schooling. My mom was dead.

I know about your mom and I'm sorry to hear it, as always.

 

And yes, good grades do help. I am transferring to WSU with a 3.8 GPA, which opens me up to a certain amount of money every semester as long as I keep my cumulative at or above a 3.2 there. I did have a 3.92 but physics courses have taken their toll.

[Deweydog]

Unforunately my children will likely have to suffer Jesse's judgmental wrath as we have plans in place to assist them with their furthered education, although my son is considering the Air Force. Yes, please!

[Jesse]

Unforunately my children will likely have to suffer Jesse's judgmental wrath as we have plans in place to assist them with their furthered education, although my son is considering the Air Force. Yes, please!

Lol, I'm not judging anyone. You are the one who said having no family to pay for schooling and volunteering as a reading tutor for three years instead was somehow a luxury.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know about your mom and I'm sorry to hear it, as always.

 

And yes, good grades do help. I am transferring to WSU with a 3.8 GPA, which opens me up to a certain amount of money every semester as long as I keep my cumulative at or above a 3.2 there. I did have a 3.92 but physics courses have taken their toll.

Good work!

 

I went to a private school and my brother went to the university of Oregon. We got similar grades , but at least at my private school there were a lot more scholarships available. My school was 35k a year and I managed to graduate with very little debt, paid off the last of which last year.

[Deweydog]

Lol, I'm not judging anyone. You are the one who said having no family to pay for schooling and volunteering as a reading tutor for three years instead was somehow a luxury.

I'd say the majority of people by that age don't have the luxury of being able to put their gainful employment life on hold for three in years. That's somehow a luxury, and good for you for seizing it.

[Jesse]

I'd say the majority of people by that age don't have the luxury of being able to put their gainful employment life on hold for three in years. That's somehow a luxury, and good for you to seizing it.

I guess yay for me for not getting anyone knocked up at an early age.

 

I actually had a reasonably well paying job in the semiconductor industry ages 21-26. But it really wasn't what I wanted to do for the rest of my life, and I made too much to qualify for any financial aid, but not enough to pay for school out of pocket without going deeply into debt. So I took a risk, quit my job and joined AmeriCorps. It was a huge step down in salary/lifestyle but it eventually paid off. I also met my fiancée that same summer who has been there for me all the way. So I guess I am lucky.

[TT-SEA]

Live traffic cam from Minneapolis... it could be worse!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Live traffic cam from Minneapolis... it could be worse!

 

Very wintry

[TT-SEA]

Very wintry

 

Evil deformation band!  

[TT-SEA]

I was running errands in North Bend this evening... and ended up chasing a rainbow.  

 

[Front Ranger]

Framed by cherry blossoms, too.

[TT-SEA]

Framed by cherry blossoms, too.

 

I chased it... pulled over and walked to a good spot.    That entire road is lined with cherry trees.   

 

I also took this picture about 20 minutes before.   When I came out of Bartells... it was sunny and raining so I knew there had to be a rainbow somewhere given the time of day and low sun angle.  

 

[crf450ish]

I don't know if this has been mentioned, but PDX is in pretty historic territory with regards to lack of warmth so far this year.

 

Our max so far is 63, and we may reach next weekend without going any higher.

 

This is the list of years with the latest "first 64" occurrence:

 

1) 4/18/1950

2) 4/15/1945

3) 4/11/1954

4) 2017

5) 4/8/1957

 

We just passed 1957 for 4th place. Interesting that every year on the top-5 list is from the 1940's and 1950's. Our closest approach since was back in 2009, when the "first 64" occurred on April 5th.

 

One word.... solar

[Phil]

One word.... solar

Low solar certainly helps. Very small tweaks to the polar boundary state can go a long way. The previous solar minimum from 2006/07 to 2011/12 certainly worked it's magic in that regard.

[TT-SEA]

A nice Easter looking a little shaky on the new 00Z GFS... to be expected.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png

[Jesse]

A nice Easter looking a little shaky on the new 00Z GFS... to be expected.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png

 

This is why I figured the ensemble disagreement was worth mentioning. Sort of a flimsy set up for a warm day with moisture not far to the south over Northern California even on the best runs. Could break 65+ and dry but could easily go the other way as well.

[TT-SEA]

This is why I figured the ensemble disagreement was worth mentioning. Sort of a flimsy set up for a warm day with moisture not far to the south over Northern California even on the best runs. Could break 65+ and dry but could easily go the other way as well.

 

That is actually a really good set-up for warm weather this time of year... its quite common.    Whether it will happen this time is another question... particularly given the last 2.5 months when almost nothing nice in the models actually holds.

[Jesse]

That is actually a really good set-up for warm weather this time of year... its quite common. Whether it will happen this time is another question... particularly given the last 2.5 months when almost nothing nice in the models actually holds.

Stable longwave ridging is a much surer set up.

[Jesse]

One word.... solar

Doesn't seem to jive with the fact that the wide majority if the country, even most of the west, torched massively in February and March.

 

Somewhere ended up a little below average. That place happened to be the far NW corner of the country. Wouldn't read too much into it.

[TT-SEA]

Stable longwave ridging is a much surer set up.

 

Of course... but that is not going to happen.    The 12Z model runs showed a typically reliable set-up for a short-lived warm day or two this time of year.  Even that is stretch this year though. 

[Phil]

Doesn't seem to jive with the fact that the wide majority if the country, even most of the west, torched massively in February and March.

 

Somewhere ended up a little below average. That place happened to be the far NW corner of the country. Wouldn't read too much into it.

Well, low/declining solar favors the west overall in the absense of a consolidated WPAC warm pool. That's why you guys cashed in bigly during the last solar minimum, and it's why things went to crap once solar activity picked up.

 

Or at least it's part of the reason. Other factors also in play.