April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

That was below the belt.

 

I am a-ok with a sunny Easter. Just seemed like you were venting a bit of pent up frustration with your reaction to my post. It's fine I suppose.

Frustration, sexual or otherwise, is a common theme on this forum.

[Jesse]

Snowing right now!

 

Still think the Euro would result in decent spring weather a weak from now. 850mb temps look alright and the flow is southerly with a long fetch over great basin.

Didn't you guys have a record warm March out that way?

[TT-SEA]

Very unusual, but yes it's possible. My point was more along the lines of GOA troughing and seasonal wavelengths.

 

Another side note... the other years in the top 10 wettest Feb/Mar periods certainly had a tendency towards drier and nice weather after the middle of April as opposed to years that had a dry early spring and then fell of a cliff from the second half April into June.  

 

SEA does not have to far to go to achieve the wettest Feb-Apr ever actually.  

[Front Ranger]

Very easy to have GOA troughing in the summer. That doesn't mean it will produce the same surface weather conditions as it would in April.

Exactly. As we move towards summer, GOA troughing can actually coexist with PNW ridging.

[Phil]

Frustration, sexual or otherwise, is a common theme on this forum.

Lol careful, this is easy troll material.

[Phil]

Exactly. As we move towards summer, GOA troughing can actually coexist with PNW ridging.

Sometimes it can, sometimes it cannot. It depends on a multitude of factors acting on the wavetrain and the waveguide.

 

There's a sizeable array of fiery EPAC/quiet dateline analogs that produced an extended jet/low wavenumber pattern.

[TT-SEA]

Just looked it up... SEA is currently in 3rd place for the wettest Feb- Apr period in history already on 4/10.

 

SEA has received 17.40 inches of rain since February 1st.   

 

First place is 2014 with 19.73 inches for the entire Feb-Apr period.    Another 2.34 inches to break the record and 20 days left.  

 

1972 is in 2nd place with 18.97 inches for the Feb-Apr period.    We passed up 1950 (17.06 inches ) to move into 3rd place last night.  

[TT-SEA]

Exactly. As we move towards summer, GOA troughing can actually coexist with PNW ridging.

 

Here we go again!   

[epiceast]

Didn't you guys have a record warm March out that way?

0 to +2. Unusually deep Early March snowpack probably helped to cool it off by a couple degrees. Anybody east and south did have a record warm march.

[Jesse]

Sunny here! What is the wavenumber responsible for this?

[Phil]

The key to this summer will be the zonal thermal gradient across the Pacific, and strength of the IO monsoonal circulation. Right now the IO is quiet, and the EPAC is dominating over the dateline/WPAC.

 

Years with the active EPAC/weak IO (uncommon) tend to feature extended NPAC jets and a lower WHEM wavenumber. Some examples of this include 1983 and 1993, and to a lesser degree 1951, 1956, and 1943, and 1991.

 

On the other hand, years with the active EPAC/strong IO include 1998, 2006, and 2012.

[Jesse]

The key to this summer will be the zonal thermal gradient across the Pacific, and strength of the IO monsoonal circulation. Right now the IO is quiet, and the EPAC is dominating over the dateline/WPAC.

 

Years with the active EPAC/weak IO (uncommon) tend to feature extended NPAC jets and a lower WHEM wavenumber. Some examples of this include 1983 and 1993, and to a lesser degree 1951, 1956, and 1943, and 1991.

 

On the other hand, years with the active EPAC/strong IO include 1998, 2006, and 2012.

Pretty mixed bag there, in both groups.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty mixed bag there, in both groups.

 

I was going to say the same thing.     

 

Just have to wait and see what happens locally.  

[Phil]

Pretty mixed bag there, in both groups.

Some of that is because they were heading in different directions, in terms of the global pattern state. Ideally, I'd look for years which featured some sort of east-based warm Pacific regime during early boreal summer. So, years like 1983, 1993, and 1951 are probably the best direct fits, assuming the Niño doesn't explode into a beast and/or the IO doesn't ignite.

[Phil]

Big time Walker Cell weakening over the next 10 days:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017041012&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Deweydog]

Well I guess take that comment for what it's worth...lol.

 

The value of "art" is in the eye of the beholder...or reader as it were.

He is a retired teacher, you know.

[Jesse]

He is a retired teacher, you know.

Commit three years of your life to volunteer work then you will be free to mock me all you want.

[Jesse]

Some of that is because they were heading in different directions, in terms of the global pattern state. Ideally, I'd look for years which featured some sort of east-based warm Pacific regime during early boreal summer. So, years like 1983, 1993, and 1951 are probably the best direct fits, assuming the Niño doesn't explode into a beast and/or the IO doesn't ignite.

I can't tell if you throwing 2 of our coolest summers in the last 40 years into the mix is legimate or just an attempt to troll Tim.

[Deweydog]

Commit three years of your life to volunteer work then you will be free to mock me all you want.

Most of us don't have that luxury.

[TT-SEA]

Some of that is because they were heading in different directions, in terms of the global pattern state. Ideally, I'd look for years which featured some sort of east-based warm Pacific regime during early boreal summer. So, years like 1983, 1993, and 1951 are probably the best direct fits, assuming the Niño doesn't explode into a beast and/or the IO doesn't ignite.

 

 

1983 and 1993 were being discussed a great deal last spring as well.   Of course both years were impacted by prior volcanic activity.    And of course 1983 was coming off one of the strongest Ninos in history and 1993 was a Nino from start to finish.  

 

1951 was a spectacular summer here... very little rain from June into October and temperatures consistently in the upper 70s to low 80s.   One of the most consistently nice summers in local history.   That was also a year that started with a Nina and transitioned to a weak Nino beginning in April and May as appears to be happening now.  

[stuffradio]

I can't tell if you throwing 2 of our coolest summers in the last 40 years into the mix is legimate or just an attempt to troll Tim.

Who said he's not attempting to troll you?

[TT-SEA]

Who said he's not attempting to troll you?

 

He is usually trolling someone.   

[Jesse]

Most of us don't have that luxury.

Hardly a luxury. Brokest three years of my life. It was a fulfilling experience though, and necessary to help me pay for college. I didn't have mom and dad bankrolling me like many people.

[Phil]

1983 and 1993 were being discussed a great deal last spring as well. Of course both years were impacted by prior volcanic activity. And of course 1983 was coming off one of the strongest Ninos in history and 1993 was a Nino from start to finish.

 

1951 was a spectacular summer here... very little rain from June into October and temperatures consistently in the upper 70s to low 80s. One of the most consistently nice summers in local history. That was also a year that started with a Nina and transitioned to a weak Nino beginning in May.

Doesn't matter what forced the SSTAs. Volcanic activity did enhance the cold IO/warm EPAC signature, however it was that signature that forced the persistent NPAC jet extensions, and it's the same signature we have now.

 

Aggregating the best analogs gives us this look. So, slightly cooler than average w/ a Plains ridge.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D8F80E25-2212-4567-8F2E-1DE8A57167B9_zpsy3avcxxn.png

[TT-SEA]

Hardly a luxury. Brokest three years of my life. It was a fulfilling by experience though, and necessary to help me pay for college. I didn't have mom and dad bankrolling me like many people.

 

You take way too much crap on here about that.  

[Phil]

I can't tell if you throwing 2 of our coolest summers in the last 40 years into the mix is legimate or just an attempt to troll Tim.

I actually had no idea about that. Perhaps I'm too warm with my forecast..who knows.

[TT-SEA]

Here is Jun-Sept of 1951... perfectly normal up here.  

 

[Deweydog]

Hardly a luxury. Brokest three years of my life. It was a fulfilling experience though, and necessary to help me pay for college. I didn't have mom and dad bankrolling me like many people.

I think many would consider it a luxury to be able to take a three year break from gainful employment to volunteer their time for an educational return. Few have that much autonomy in their lives given other obligations.

[TT-SEA]

I actually had no idea about that. Perhaps I'm too warm with my forecast..who knows.

 

At SEA... March was -0.4 and April is running +1.0 so far.  

[Phil]

I guess 1951 could represent the "upper end" of the spectrum of potential outcomes. It's sort of an outlier though. End result will probably be something closer to the extended-jet patterns, though perhaps not to the extremes of 1993 or 1983.

[TT-SEA]

Just for fun... here is the composite of Jun-Sept for years in the top 3 wettest Feb-Apr periods in Seattle history (2017 currently in 3rd place).     I know that all of these years are absolute anti-analogs of course without even being told.  

 

But this what the other crazy wet years in late winter and early spring look like:

 

 

[Phil]

At SEA... March was -0.4 and April is running +1.0 so far.

Should finish close to March, I think. This isn't likely to be a year for dry, ridgy patterns. Sorry man.

[ShawniganLake]

Hardly a luxury. Brokest three years of my life. It was a fulfilling experience though, and necessary to help me pay for college. I didn't have mom and dad bankrolling me like many people.

How does "volunteer" work help pay for college?

[DareDuck]

I expect the rather damp/unsettled weather will continue, at least through the third week of April, but the precip amounts will lessen with more of a showery regime and orographic component. Areas on the lee side of the Cascades may be mostly dry with plenty of sun while anywhere with any appreciable terrain sees a lot of clouds.

This has definitely been occurring in central OR. We're in a pretty typical April pattern (how the storms behave, not the constant parade) where the Cascades have been receiving snow showers and staying chilly, unlike last year, and in the lowlands east of mountains we've been seeing a mix of cloudy, cool, yet dry days or sunnier, cool, but windier days.

[TT-SEA]

Should finish close to March, I think. This isn't likely to be a year for dry, ridgy patterns. Sorry man.

 

There is nothing that points to a hot summer... normal is close to perfection around here most of the time in the summer.  

 

And we frequently have dry patterns without ridging in the summer.   

[Jesse]

How does "volunteer" work help pay for college?

Scholarships.

[Phil]

Just for fun... here is the composite of Jun-Sept for years in the top 3 wettest Feb-Apr periods in Seattle history (2017 currently in 3rd place). I know that all of these years are absolute anti-analogs of course without even being told.

 

But this what the other crazy wet years in late winter and early spring look like:

They're anti-logs for a reason, my friend.

 

Backwards over the tropical Pacific.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BEFFAF10-653A-4D0F-9B96-4771D0312B1B_zpsuod3zt1m.png

[Jesse]

I think many would consider it a luxury to be able to take a three year break from gainful employment to volunteer their time for an educational return. Few have that much autonomy in their lives given other obligations.

Ok. Pretty strange how seem to be so keen on spinning it as an irresponsible or privileged thing to do. I actually made many sacrifices that you know nothing about.

 

Did your parents help pay for your college? I have a feeling I know the answer.

[TT-SEA]

They're anti-logs for a reason, my friend. Backwards over the tropical Pacific.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BEFFAF10-653A-4D0F-9B96-4771D0312B1B_zpsuod3zt1m.png

 

 

You forgot to include 1972 in that mix.  

[Jesse]

You take way too much crap on here about that.

Yeah, it's really odd. You'd think I was on the level of Phil here. Difference is I actually did all of it. I'm glad I have you on Facebook so at least somebody can realize I'm not making it all up.