Jump to content

April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Recommended Posts

Nice to see a little something to knock the dust down this evening.

 

Just turned off the sprinkler system... watching the radar closely and hope we get in on the action.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well we just had 3 fairly decent ones in a row from Saturday to Monday. A little rain at times but a fair amount of sun. To ask for completely stagnant, sunny weather here at this point in the year generally still takes a full blown ridge.

 

We did not have that up here in the Seattle area... it rained off and on most of the day on Saturday and most of Monday afternoon.   

 

Monday was a very active day.   If we have to count that as a dry day because there were some sun breaks in between frequent downpours then you know its been really bad.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z GFS trended south again with the system for Easter...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041300/gfs_ir_us_17.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple historically warm and dry springs followed by a coolish and wettish one. The agony!

 

Really Jesse?    

 

 

Buck up boys!!   Never ever ever complain unless its about warmth or humidity.   Not even allowed to expect a couple consecutive nice days.       :lol: 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're going to wear yourself out big guy.

 

How?   I have one thing to track this week.   Easter Sunday.   I am bored.  

 

And its looking solidly nice so its not even suspenseful.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really Jesse?

 

 

Buck up boys!! Never ever ever complain unless its about warmth or humidity. Not even allowed to expect a couple consecutive nice days. That never happens in our climate is silly to expect it by mid April. :lol:

 

Might be time for a break.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Might be time for a break.

 

You are so patronizing at times.    I am completely going with the flow.    Phil kicked this discussion tonight off with a comment implying we should never expect a nice day in our dreary climate.   Demonstrating he does not really understand our climate.    ;)

 

I just enjoy the breaks when they come.  I also suspect this record setting and persistently wet spring is setting us up nicely for summer as well.   Tables could turn on you and will at some point!  

 

20170412_173545.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We did not have that up here in the Seattle area... it rained off and on most of the day on Saturday and most of Monday afternoon.   

 

Monday was a very active day.   If we have to count that as a dry day because there were some sun breaks in between frequent downpours then you know its been really bad.    :lol:

 

Three of the next four days look pretty nice.

 

And looking at the time lapse from the Space Needle cam, there's been quite a bit of sun in Seattle the last few days.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Three of the next four days look pretty nice.

 

And looking at the time lapse from the Space Needle cam, there's been quite a bit of sun in Seattle the last few days.

 

I can't get the space needle cam to load.   Must be my browser.

 

And I just posted about the nice weather this afternoon... and yesterday was awesome.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone else have the feeling a crappy Easter Sunday will send Tim into full-blown meltdown mode?

 

Easter is just about guaranteed now to be nice... but I really don't get angry about any of this now.    

 

Annoyed at times but never angry.   It will pass.   Reward will come.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You are so patronizing at times.    I am completely going with the flow.    Phil kicked this discussion tonight off with a comment implying we should never expect a nice day in our dreary climate.   Demonstrating he does not really understand our climate.    ;)

 

I just enjoy the breaks when they come.  I also suspect this record setting and persistently wet spring is setting us up nicely for summer as well.   Tables could turn on you and will at some point!  

 

 

Oh for sure. Global warming will make this climate better and better for you over the decades. Just let me enjoy a cool and wet April before ones like last year's become the norm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh for sure. Global warming will make this climate better and better for you over the decades. Just let me enjoy a cool and wet April before ones like last year's become the norm.

 

I am not telling you not to enjoy it.   :lol:

 

I am enjoying bits and pieces of it as well.   Its not a total loss.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We did not have that up here in the Seattle area... it rained off and on most of the day on Saturday and most of Monday afternoon.

 

Monday was a very active day. If we have to count that as a dry day because there were some sun breaks in between frequent downpours then you know its been really bad. :lol:

That's just your climate. Should probably get out of there before the ice sheets come barreling down from Canada.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You are so patronizing at times. I am completely going with the flow. Phil kicked this discussion tonight off with a comment implying we should never expect a nice day in our dreary climate. Demonstrating he does not really understand our climate. ;)

 

I just enjoy the breaks when they come. I also suspect this record setting and persistently wet spring is setting us up nicely for summer as well. Tables could turn on you and will at some point!

 

20170412_173545.jpg

So the hot summer is back on? I thought it was cancelled.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had lots of good light-moderate showers on the east sides today. I liked it. 

 

Snowing again tonight. Started a couple hours ago (8pm). 1" on roads and throughout the yard. This month I have already seen more snow than in any April I experienced (since 2011). My max April snow previously was in 2012 at 2.00".

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 21
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Both the 00z GFS and many of the EPS members depict record shattering cold over north-central Canada for week 2. Some EPS members plunge 850mb temps below -30C with surface temps 45F below normal. That'd be interesting from a wx-nerd perspective.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just watch, I bet we can't even manage to string ten warmer than average summers in a row together in this gloomy climate. <_>

 

Last summer... nature delivered a frigid summer to the entire "region" according to the reporting here!    There were just a couple bubbles of warmth.    So we are due for a warm one.   ;)

 

Its too bad that below normal is associated with low clouds and drizzle all summer.   I would be very happy with a sunny, below normal summer.   And much less happy with a cloudy, wet and above normal summer.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had some intense rain overnight and woke up to sun breaking through the clouds.   

 

Record rain at SEA for yesterday with .85 and more fell after midnight.  

 

SEA now has less than 1 inch to go to break the record for the wettest Feb-Apr period ever (set in 2014).

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last summer... nature delivered a frigid summer to the entire "region" according to the reporting here! There were just a couple bubbles of warmth. So we are due for a warm one. ;)

 

Its too bad that below normal is associated with low clouds and drizzle all summer. I would be very happy with a sunny, below normal summer. And much less happy with a cloudy, wet and above normal summer.

That was just for July. The torrid August put the kibosh on a regionally cool summer.

 

We used to be capable of "cool" and very dry summers with lots of NW flow. That seems to be a thing of the past though. Probably has something to do with the coming Ice Age that will initiate during Trump's third term.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

.63" here yesterday. Pretty typical April weather. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That was just for July. The torrid August put the kibosh on a regionally cool summer.

 

We used to be capable of "cool" and very dry summers with lots of NW flow. That seems to be a thing of the past though. Probably has something to do with the coming Ice Age that will initiate during Trump's third term.

It was really just those two weeks in a sea of troughing. Above 950hpa, it was a solidly cooler-than-average J/A/S, with 850mb temperatures running at -3.7C over WA/OR.

 

I could see this summer running warmer aloft but cooler at the surface with the zonal streamflow under a more dominant GOA trough, similar to the 2010 or 2011 pattern. Unless of course the dateline SSTAs warm dramatically relative to the Indo/EPAC, and convection sets up there as a result, in which case you probably flip into a warm/+PNA regime in mid/late July or early August.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

.63" here yesterday. Pretty typical April weather. 

 

Any given day could be considered "typical" but the amount of rain and the persistence of rain almost daily in the Feb-Apr period is anything but typical.

 

At least up here in this area... its only happened once before (in 2014).   Which was also the last time we came out of a weak Nina winter into a weak Nino summer... FWIW.  

 

I am not saying we are following 2014.   Just pointing out the rarity.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Any given day could be considered "typical" but the amount of rain and the persistence of rain almost daily in the Feb-Apr period is anything but typical.

 

At least up here in this area... its only happened once before (in 2014). Which was also the last time we came out of a weak Nina winter into a weak Nino summer... FWIW.

 

I am not saying we are following 2014. Just pointing out the rarity.

When is you next trip planned?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Any given day could be considered "typical" but the amount of rain and the persistence of rain almost daily in the Feb-Apr period is anything but typical.

 

At least up here in this area... its only happened once before (in 2014).   Which was also the last time we came out of a weak Nina winter into a weak Nino summer... FWIW.  

 

I am not saying we are following 2014.   Just pointing out the rarity.  

 

Yep, it's been wet. Abnormally so.

 

90dPNormWRCC-NW.png

  • Like 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the top 06z GFS-based analogs are 1993 and 1964. I'm not saying I expect a "repeat" verbatim of either, but the persistence of some of the cool summer years is occurring for a reason, and that reason appears to be linked to the +SIOD/cool IO and warm EPAC regime. Lots of extended-jet/low wavenumber patterns in that setup.

 

In particular, the 1993 analog has shown up every day for the last 4+ weeks:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

However, strictly looking at April things haven't been to out of control. March and February were incredibly wet. April has been more normal than those months.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

However, strictly looking at April things haven't been to out of control. March and February were incredibly wet. April has been more normal than those months.

This is probably a good take... getting to the wettest Feb-Apr ever is a little easier when Feb/Mar was the wettest ever.   Even a normal April will get us a close.   

 

That being said... SEA is running 200% of normal rain in April following the wettest Feb/Mar ever.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 1151

      May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

    2. 802

      Middle East Conflict of 2023-2024 (Also including the protests related to this)

    3. 1151

      May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

    4. 7670

      Polite Politics

×
×
  • Create New...