April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[IbrChris]

The general summer forecast that the vendors are settling on is one with warmth on either coast as well as down in TX while the Midwest/Great Lakes sees potential for cooler than normal temps during JJA. The main driver behind the forecast is expected ENSO trends toward warm neutral utilizing some late winter-spring analog years.

[Phil]

The general summer forecast that the vendors are settling on is one with warmth on either coast as well as down in TX while the Midwest/Great Lakes sees potential for cooler than normal temps during JJA. The main driver behind the forecast is expected ENSO trends toward warm neutral utilizing some late winter-spring analog years.

I'm not sold on a warm west coast. I think the big question is if/when the low frequency dateline subsidence regimen breaks down. We've had this bifurcated state of EPAC convection coupled to the warmth there, and the more classic Indo wave too, sandwhiching the subsidence across the WPAC/dateline into the central Pacific:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9FB406F4-808F-4050-82D7-F552D3EC230C_zpsjholucjo.png

 

This is almost 1983/1993-ish, and it's provided for a low NH wavebumber and extended Pacific jet for awhile now. So long as the dateline subsidence continues, obtaining a ridgy summer in the west might be close to impossible.

 

The recent subsurface cooling makes it all-the-more complicated in the near term:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[Phil]

Looks like a nice Baffin Bay vortex pattern upcoming for the heart of boreal spring. Exactly what I've been looking for to make this seasonal prediction easier, should it establish firmly.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hght_comp_can610.gif

[Phil]

This is interesting..extended range EPS weeklies depict a substantial reduction in off-equator convection across the globe:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/85DF281A-6648-402F-989A-FAD726705CCF_zpsncu3dhye.jpg

[Phil]

Recent +QBO was record breaking in amplitude. In general, boreal spring QBO amplitude has been increasing.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E72EF0AA-5519-4F1F-88FA-7C4CA28D2C35_zpsxypzurp1.jpg

[TT-SEA]

The new satellite loop is really fun to watch on an active day like this one... click play in the lower right corner. 

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=northwest-02-48-0

[Front Ranger]

Pretty cool view of the sun/showers over Elliot Bay from the Space Needle: https://www.spaceneedle.com/webcam/

 

[TT-SEA]

And now a rain shower over Lake Union:

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/14k88b5.jpg

[Phil]

Could be time for a new "Summer Prediction" topic that degenerates into an "I Was Right On My Summer Prediction" topic.

Haha. Like old times?

[Jesse]

The general summer forecast that the vendors are settling on is one with warmth on either coast as well as down in TX while the Midwest/Great Lakes sees potential for cooler than normal temps during JJA. The main driver behind the forecast is expected ENSO trends toward warm neutral utilizing some late winter-spring analog years.

Has summer already found its way into the 11-15 day period?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Has summer already found its way into the 11-15 day period?

No doubt playa

[IbrChris]

Has summer already found its way into the 11-15 day period?

Wouldn't expect you to understand how energy trading markets work...but as a bit of insight weather risk is assessed at farther ahead timescales than GOLU through the end of the TV met's 7 day forecast. It's ok if that makes no sense...your job doesn't depend on you understanding.

[Jesse]

Wouldn't expect you to understand how energy trading markets work...but as a bit of insight weather risk is assessed at farther ahead timescales than GOLU through the end of the TV met's 7 day forecast. It's ok if that makes no sense...your job doesn't depend on you understanding.

It was just a joke.

[Trainwreck]

Wouldn't expect you to understand how energy trading markets work...but as a bit of insight weather risk is assessed at farther ahead timescales than GOLU through the end of the TV met's 7 day forecast. It's ok if that makes no sense...your job doesn't depend on you understanding.

Good lord.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My friends parents got an inch of hail in Bend today.

[BLI snowman]

My friends parents got an inch of hail in Bend today.

 

There was another tornado today just SE of there.

[stuffradio]

Dutchsinse is predicting a large earthquake potential for Eugene to Salem or between Olympia to Portland.

 

Actually, maybe he's not predicting that it will be just focused there. He's watching for a M6.8 earthquake somewhere, maybe along Van Island somewhere?

 

 

This guy has a large success record of predicting earthquakes in days or weeks in advance.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Another rainy evening here tonight. The last couple days have been a lot more friendly for rain here in the Olympic Rainshadow. A couple more rainy days and this month will have seen more rain than all of April/May 2015 and 2016 combined. Though that says more about how dry those 4 months were than how rainy this month has been.

[Front Ranger]

Dutchsinse is predicting a large earthquake potential for Eugene to Salem or between Olympia to Portland.

 

Actually, maybe he's not predicting that it will be just focused there. He's watching for a M6.8 earthquake somewhere, maybe along Van Island somewhere?

 

 

This guy has a large success record of predicting earthquakes in days or weeks in advance.

 

I imagine he's fabulously wealthy then. 

[DareDuck]

There was another tornado today just SE of there.

Wow! Just read about it. I was out in that storm today at the dog park. Got that 1/2" of hail, heard continuous thunder for a couple minutes, and saw a couple flashes. I was watching that storm that produced the weak tornado but it was rain wrapped so I couldn't see from the distance I was out. I did pause for one moment to notice how there was rotation in the atmosphere. A little spooky and unexpected at 3500' and with temps around 40.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF pretty nice overall. Numerous days above 60 for most areas and less rain than previous runs for next week.

[seattleweatherguy]

They say the Friday after Easter can be several degrees higher if forecast holds...upper 60s to low 70s?

[TT-SEA]

High temps for Easter Sunday... possibly 70 out here.

 

[Jesse]

High temps for Easter Sunday... possibly 70 out here.

 

MOS guidance shows a high of only 61 for PDX that day.

 

It was showing upper 60s yesterday.

[Jesse]

Definitely looks like we are going into a warmer pattern after this weekend though. Most days in the 60s.

[TT-SEA]

MOS guidance shows a high of only 61 for PDX that day.

 

It was showing upper 60s yesterday.

 

GFS MOS is definitely better than the WRF.    Likely comes down to high clouds as you mentioned yesterday.   The system is a little farther north again on the 12Z run.  

[TT-SEA]

MOS guidance shows a high of only 61 for PDX that day.

 

It was showing upper 60s yesterday.

 

12Z ECMWF is cooler than previous runs as well.  Looks like a bullet was dodged!  

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF is cooler than previous runs as well. Looks like a bullet was dodged!

Mark going with 69 for Sunday was just begging for a jinx!

[Jesse]

Day 10 looks warm on the Euro.

[Phil]

Day 10 looks warm on the Euro.

Dateline subsidence isn't going anywhere, so once the mountain torque/AAM cycles back upstream, after the upcoming purp, the east-biased GOA troughing will return along with an extended NPAC jet. That's probably 2-3 weeks from now.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017041412&fh=-12&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Jesse]

Dateline subsidence isn't going anywhere, so once the mountain torque/AAM cycles back upstream, after the upcoming purp, the east-biased GOA troughing will return along with an extended NPAC jet. That's probably 2-3 weeks from now.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017041412&fh=-12&xpos=0&ypos=0

A break in late April definitely feels like something that would line us up for prolonged troughing in May/early June.

 

If April were just cool and showery the whole way through I would actually feel better about things turning warmer and drier next month. But doesn't look like it will work out that way.

[Jesse]

Hour 240 of the Euro looks like the first legit shot at 70 we've see on the models so far this year. None of that jury rigged duct tape and gorilla glue type stuff like this weekend.

[Phil]

Interesting that 1993 comes up 4 times on the d11 analog ensemble for 06z. #pacificjet

 

Timing will be different in reality, but I think the low frequency signal for boreal spring is just about established.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif

[TT-SEA]

May of 1993 was quite warm and pleasant here... particularly after the first third of the month.

 

Numerous days in the 70s and 80s... peak of 87 on 2 different days.    

 

Given that its rained almost daily for all of February, March, and now April... it does not seem like a year that would turn nice for a week in late April and then be rainy and cold all of May and June.

 

1993 featured the driest February ever here and it was decent through a good part of March before a very wet April.

 

All of the years with extremely wet Feb-Apr periods improved dramatically in May and June.  Years like 1950, 1961, 1972, and 2014 which were among the wettest in history in late winter and early spring.  2017 is going to be the top dog in that list.  

[Kayla]

Mark going with 69 for Sunday was just begging for a jinx!

 

12z Euro shows only 62 now as well. Looks like the streak has still got a shot!

[Kayla]

Day 10 looks warm on the Euro.

 

70!

[TT-SEA]

Interesting that 1993 comes up 4 times on the d11 analog ensemble for 06z. #pacificjet

 

Timing will be different in reality, but I think the low frequency signal for boreal spring is just about established.

 

 

 

And its last on the list on the D+8 analog list... also see years like 2004 and 2009 above it.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610analog.off.gif

[Phil]

May of 1993 was quite warm and pleasant here... particularly after the first third of the month.

 

Numerous days in the 70s and 80s... peak of 87 on 2 different days.

 

Given that its rained almost daily for all of February, March, and now April... it does not seem like a year that would turn nice for a week in late April and then be rainy and cold all of May and June.

 

1993 featured the driest February ever here and it was decent through a good part of March before a very wet April.

 

All of the years with extremely wet Feb-Apr periods improved dramatically in May and June. Years like 1950, 1961, 1972, and 2014 which were among the wettest in history in late winter and early spring. 2017 is going to be the top dog in that list.

Fatal problem here is the tropical forcing changed abruptly back in mid/late February when sudden thermodynamic coupling initiated the EPAC standing wave. We didn't move into the (ongoing) 1993-esque state until mid/late February, though the extratropical and polar forcings were trending that way since last autumn (and that won't stop abruptly under the warm season state..it never does).

 

We can already eliminate 2014, 1950 (with limits), and 1961 as summer analogs given their wildly different tropical forcings, while 1972 is usable until mid-summer. These years aren't even remotely close to being representative of this year.

 

This is the ongoing tropical convective state:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B4C846AD-65FD-4763-900C-D4A89342E6A3_zpsg8lrkeru.png

 

On the other hand, this is the aggregated convective state in 1950, 1961, and 2014. Polar opposite.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5A77BAE4-A9BD-4704-A86A-854F9800A52C_zpsbapjw0ci.png

[Phil]

And its last on the list on the D+8 analog list... also see years like 2004 and 2009 above it.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610analog.off.gif

Tread carefully.

 

Poor seasonal analogs show up frequently due to intraseasonal noise (variations in the frictional torques/mass exchanges and random noise too). Years that show up frequently over extended (multi-month) timescales are likely more reflective of the lower frequency global background conditions.

 

If a year is displayed there, it's a good 500mb match for the date listed alongside it. The years listed are the top-10 matches ordered by their correlation coefficients.

[TT-SEA]

Fatal problem here is the tropical forcing changed abruptly back in mid/late February when sudden thermodynamic coupling initiated the EPAC standing wave. We didn't move into the (ongoing) 1993-esque state until mid/late February, though the extratropical and polar forcings were trending that way since last autumn (and that won't stop abruptly under the warm season state..it never does).

 

We can already eliminate 2014, 1950 (with limits), and 1961 as summer analogs given their wildly different tropical forcings, while 1972 is usable until mid-summer. These years aren't even remotely close to being representative of this year.

 

This is the ongoing tropical convective state:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B4C846AD-65FD-4763-900C-D4A89342E6A3_zpsg8lrkeru.png

 

On the other hand, this is the aggregated convective state in 1950, 1961, and 2014. Polar opposite.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5A77BAE4-A9BD-4704-A86A-854F9800A52C_zpsbapjw0ci.png

You always exclude 1972 in these maps.

 

And I am looking forward to a nice stretch of 70s and 80s for most of May like 1993!

 

We cannot just always follow combinations of the worst analogs. Missing the best part of the cold and wet years and only matching the worst parts.