April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow maniac]

No strong winds here all day, just a little blustery.

[Blizzard777]

Federal way ...nothing to report

 

 

Strike that....cherry blossoms remaind on tree

[FroYoBro]

The westside of Portland got hit pretty hard. Power is out at home and PGE says it won't be up until tomorrow sometime.

 

There were a bunch of flying branches hitting cars on my way to work this morning. Pretty impressive April storm for this area.

[Dave]

Seems like there's potential for a sub 50 high tomorrow.  I wonder how often that happens in April.

 

Today was downright miserable.  Worst windstorm of the season for sure.

[dairyd]

Not a great deal of wind up here, a few gusts in the 30's.  I don't think it is going to spool up much, differential is down to 8-9mb already as the storm has weakened and moved quite a bit off shore.  The Olympics really take the energy out of these if they don't pass to their SW it seems.  Looks like there was a 15-17mb diff when it hit the OR coast/Willamette valley, accounting for much of their high winds.  Up here it is just a garden variety windstorm.  We can use it to dry things out a bit.

[Jesse]

At the ferry terminal from Whidbey Island to Port Townsend. Insanely windy here. But apparently they have yet to cancel service.

[TT-SEA]

It has turned quite windy here in the last 2 hours... totally dry as well.   

[Jesse]

On the ferry now. Literally the roughest ride I've ever been on.

[Dave]

On the ferry now. Literally the roughest ride I've ever been on.

I was on a ferry ride that was so rough, they handed out barf bags to about half the patrons on board.  I used one.  I'll never forget that trip.

[dairyd]

18 mb pressure increase from 972, that is a rapid weakening for not even coming onshore yet.

[Timmy Supercell]

Snow has started flurrying down here. Will report a bit later how much has accumulated.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 39 now.

[Trainwreck]

Just saw a couple of flakes here. I love the dynamics of central Oregon.

[Jesse]

I was on a ferry ride that was so rough, they handed out barf bags to about half the patrons on board. I used one. I'll never forget that trip.

We survived it, and no one even puked! We lucked out since ours was the last ride on that route of the day. The cancelled all later routes due to rough conditions.

 

Dinner in Port Angeles now!

[epiceast]

NAM is bringing the ULL back!!!!

 

(for one frame).

[VancouverIslandSouth]

BC ferries from Victoria to Vancouver are shut down for now. Just breezy here in Victoria so far, must be stronger on the Strait and the Tsawwassen side. Docking is problematic there in the wind.

 

I'm surprised they were so quick to cancel the ferry runs. Maybe it was crazy in the Strait but there hasn't been much to report in Victoria. At the moment it's completely calm.

[Timmy Supercell]

No road accumulation, but there is 1" on the side railing in front of the home, and decent amount on grass.

[ShawniganLake]

I'm surprised they were so quick to cancel the ferry runs. Maybe it was crazy in the Strait but there hasn't been much to report in Victoria. At the moment it's completely calm.

They seem pretty quick to cancel after that one boat couldn't dock last year and spent the night circling and waiting for the wind to relax. It's really only docking in the wind that's an issue. Otherwise, those boats can handle pretty much any windstorm around here.

[TT-SEA]

Another windstorm on Wednesday... at least for the coast.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017040812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just some wet non-sticking snow around 7am this morning. Got down to 35 

[Jesse]

They seem pretty quick to cancel after that one boat couldn't dock last year and spent the night circling and waiting for the wind to relax. It's really only docking in the wind that's an issue. Otherwise, those boats can handle pretty much any windstorm around here.

Docking was the biggest issue for us by far. I have ridden the Port Townsend ferry many times and have never approached the terminal that way. We basically came in parallel to the shore then made a hard right. It was clearly difficult for the captain to line things up with the wind and waves.

[Phil]

That Pacific jet just keeps roaring. Modeling keeps it pumping through April, into May, with the EPAC convection coupled to a westward propagating oceanic Rossby wave, expanding the integral.

 

The California folks will love this, that's for sure. What an epic reversal from the dry Hadley Cell branch regime there.

[TT-SEA]

That Pacific jet just keeps roaring. Modeling keeps it pumping through April, into May, with the EPAC convection coupled to a westward propagating oceanic Rossby wave, expanding the integral.

 

The California folks will love this, that's for sure. What an epic reversal from the dry Hadley Cell branch regime there.

 

GFS shows rain throughout CA on Easter.   However it is quite likely that this actually ends up over us instead.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017040812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a very pleasant day in Augusta, GA

[Phil]

GFS shows rain throughout CA on Easter. However it is quite likely that this actually ends up over us instead.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017040812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

Could be. These Pacific jet extensions started last autumn as intraseasonal events, and have grown more frequent and vigorous since. Persistence forecasting, when utilized properly within the bounds of low frequency pattern progression, does have its benefits.

 

You know, the deeper I look into the evolution of the ENSO, the more I come to realize that it actually isn't a tropical phenomenon at all. Rather, it appears to be a global phenomenon, driven by variances in equator-pole exchange, which alters the equilibrative state.

 

If you look carefully, you'll find that every ENSO event has an extratropical precursor. For example, the big 2015/16 Niño was preceded by a shift in NPAC-Arctic circulation, which flipped the PDO/NAO into their positive low frequency states. The ongoing EPAC powerhouse/cold IO state was preceded by an amplification of the NPAC jet and EAMT cycle relative to their modern normals. The complete skippage of the -QBO last year, and return to the strongest +QBO on record, also looms large with regards to the system being pulled back into a Niño-like state so soon after the super niño in 2015/16 (though this is a much different system state, by every possible comparison).

[Jesse]

Tired of all the Niños.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing pretty heavily. 38 degrees so no sticking. 

[Phil]

Tired of all the Niños.

This system state is nothing remotely close to 2013-16, or any 21st century regime, for that matter. You might be pleasantly surprised in the long run.

 

There's some resemblance to the early/mid 1990s, but that's a dead end going forward more than 8 months given the very different solar/strat background, and an opposing relative integral to equilibration (global-spatial energy budget is progressing opposite of its 1988-1998 progression).

[Deweydog]

Tired of all the Niños.

[Timmy]

My wife just called pissed off as she got home "it's freaking snowing up here"...

[Phil]

Man, the early 90s (especially 1993) are just everywhere on today's extended range analog suite. Might be a better spring analog than a summer analog, though.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

[epiceast]

Raining pretty hard out here. Can finally see upper level rotation starting to spin up on the radar. In 2 or 3 hours I'll know if this will be a serious event here.

[epiceast]

down to 39 here, .13" in 20 minutes some of that at rates of .5" an hour. Just need it to get dark & have the flow switch to WNW and it'll be all wet snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

45/35

 

Not bad for a showery/sunbreaks day in April

[luminen]

43F and a persistent light rain all day today with gusty winds. Downright cold for April! I would love some sun.

 

Apparently, March 2017 in Vancouver was the least sunny March since records began with 70.5 hours:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/gloomiest-vancouver-least-sunshine-1.4057649

 

[Phil]

So, +IOD/+SIOD, +IPWP, cool dateline, and a warm EPAC?

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.4.6.2017.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Had a light freeze here this morning at 31F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 31 here this morning

[Jesse]

Back in town. We had some chunky rain up in Forks yesterday morning (lots of windshield splats). Going to the Hoh Rainforest yesterday afternoon you could see sticking snow on the hillsides about 500' up off the valley bottom.

[Jesse]

My wife just called pissed off as she got home "it's freaking snowing up here"...

Must be pretty annoying, especially since I can only assume you guys moved to 1,500' to get away from the snow.