NEJeremy Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 FWIW, the latest 12z CFSv2 snowfall map showing 2 of its 4 members indicating a snowstorm from NE/IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI. This map accounts for current snow cover and the projected snow for the snowstorm this weekend. You can see the heaviest corridor of 12"+ in the greyish/brown color.That model may have done alright with the cold this winter, but it's been on crack for snowfall amounts. I can't even count how many times this winter where it's showed us buried in snow and well..... we all know how that has gone! We might as well be using the JMA for snow amounts too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 ^ Your right about that in your region, but from IA eastward into the east coast it has done very well. For some reason, this year snow does not like to fall in your area. I really am rooting for you to get in on the action from this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think models have been awful with snow totals. Can't remember how many times 24 hrs out and set to get 4" and end up with 1-2" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think models have been awful with snow totals. Can't remember how many times 24 hrs out and set to get 4" and end up with 1-2"I would totally agree with that, especially the American models, but all of them in general have overdone precip a lot this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChicagoToSeattle Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I would totally agree with that, especially the American models, but all of them in general have overdone precip a lot this year.Snowstorms this year have been a mixed bag of systems -- many clipper types which we know are difficult to model. The traditional synoptic systems that tap into a verified moisture source such as the GOM have been pretty much on target. For example last week's rain in Chicago was pretty close to predicted precip levels. There was an interesting post by a well-regarded met out here, Cliff Mass that details the difficulties NWS models face because of a lack of computer horsepower http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/02/where-is-national-weather-services-new.html . Geeky, interesting stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Snowstorms this year have been a mixed bag of systems -- many clipper types which we know are difficult to model. The traditional synoptic systems that tap into a verified moisture source such as the GOM have been pretty much on target. For example last week's rain in Chicago was pretty close to predicted precip levels. There was an interesting post by a well-regarded met out here, Cliff Mass that details the difficulties NWS models face because of a lack of computer horsepower http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/02/where-is-national-weather-services-new.html . Geeky, interesting stuff.Read that as well, certainly interesting.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 and yet the public will always blame the meteorologists!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z NAM...not bad for the 1st 2 waves... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like the 3rd wave stays south on the 00z NAM... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 So far LOT says < 1" tomorrow night. Snow likely after midnight. Both ENW and RAC have 2", maybe 3" forecasted currently. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Neat look at the WRF simulated radar off the coast of Cali...almost looks like an eye of a Hurricane. I think once this system comes onshore and the models are able to get real good data, this will turn out to be a much bigger storm one which can shift north eventually. We have had crazy shifts even 24 hours out and this system may do the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF's are on the rise for ORD...the were around .44qpf earlier today.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 SREF's are on the rise for ORD...the were around .44qpf earlier today..Heh- control for the win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Took this map off tonight's 00z Euro weeklies control run...I find it interesting that at 6:00pm Sunday the thermal boundary is much farther north and that is where the wave will run up and along it. If this were to evolve, a track through S IL/S IN would transpire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Phil Schwarz just posted on FB what the NAM model just indicated and a juicier system may be in store for Sat night's wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 0z GFS coming in much wetter for tomorrows storm with 4-5 across WI now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LincWeath Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Can someone post the gfs? Not able to load it on my phone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Most intense part of the northern wave. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z GFS...through 6:00pm Saturday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z GFS...through 6:00pm Saturday...i disagree that this model run is a dud that we will get more than 5 or 6 inches a foot or a foot and a half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'll take 4-6 inches here. Nice snowfall to cover up the brown spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 i disagree that this model run is a dud that we will get more than 5 or 6 inches a foot or a foot and a half.LOL keep on dreaming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 The Third wave will likely not be a factor this far north. Going to be a big time storm for Indiana, Ohio and into the East Coast. The second wave has the best potential for the Great Lakes so lets hope we can get some solid snowfall out of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I would take the GFS and run lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I would take the GFS and run lol.You're in a ideal spot. I really doubt there are going to be any huge shifts on the models since consensus seem to have been met. A slight south or north shift you will be okay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 im gonna go out on a limb and say that, I bet the models change a lot between now and sat for us here. just a feeling, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 I must say, that the jet stream structure for this event in our region is ideal for heavy snowfall. I pay attention to this as much as storm tracks but when you have "lift" on your side, crazy things can happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lake Enhancement will be a wild card but you can clearly see that showing up on the NAM/GFS and as we get closer to the event, high rez models tend to pick it up even more. The only problem I see with that is that the lake may freeze up some more by Sat/Sun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 The LEhS/LES will have to perform well... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS with nearly a foot of snow throughout WI through HR 192. Shows that snow is def. possible even after this event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z GGEM... Not bad .3-.4 QPF. 0z GFS is about .25 Looking good for at least 4-5 inches here. Better than the 1-2 the models were spitting out yesterday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 ECMWF is N with the storm track compared to the GFS. Not sure on precip tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 From Harry on American: Euro took a step back north with QPF vs 12z. The .50+ line almost up to Chicago and runs east long the MI/OH-IN line. The .25+ line runs from MKE east to Port Huron. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 From Harry on American: Euro took a step back north with QPF vs 12z. The .50+ line almost up to Chicago and runs east long the MI/OH-IN line. The .25+ line runs from MKE east to Port Huron. Anybody got the precip maps yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z Euro did come back north from it's 12z run today...baby steps I guess. Not as appreciable with snowfall for the Saturday night event though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 00z Euro did come back north from it's 12z run today...baby steps I guess. Not as appreciable with snowfall for the Saturday night event though. Little bit better. Do you have the snowfall map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS took a jog north. Brings 12 inch mark just south of Chicago... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like models took a pretty substantial jump north. We will see though best snows are still definitely going to be further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 28, 2014 Report Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS Madison MKE screwhole and the beat continues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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