May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

12z Euro plays with the idea of a retrograde toward the end. That would be nice.

The anticyclone could retrograde, but I suspect it will end up amplifying poleward into a -EPO, before getting undercut by the Pacific, which will bring the return of the GOA/coastal trough. The timing of this will depend on how fast the MJO wave orbits into/out of the Western Hemisphere.

 

This summer won't feature as many ridge retrogressions as 2016 did, given a less favorable WPAC and the fact that there will be fewer well-placed ridges to begin with.

[Jesse]

Depends on how narrow your definition of nice is.

 

I think having a second Tim as a moderator is definitely not nice!

[stuffradio]

I think having a second Tim as a moderator is definitely not nice!

It's ok, it evens things out because ifred is a pluviophile.

[Phil]

The anticyclone could retrograde, but I suspect it will end up amplifying poleward into a -EPO, before getting undercut by the Pacific, which will bring the return of the GOA/coastal trough. The timing of this will depend on how fast the MJO wave orbits into/out of the Western Hemisphere.

 

This summer won't feature as many ridge retrogressions as 2016 did, given a less favorable WPAC and the fact that there will be fewer well-placed ridges to begin with.

I should clarify. It could amplify into a -EPO or -AO, but the outcome remains largely the same in either scenario.

 

Long story short: There will be some sort of high latitude block through the upcoming several weeks, and the NE-Pacific ridge amplifying poleward will play a big part in that process, as well as the eventual return of the GOA/BC trough.

[stuffradio]

I think having a second Tim as a moderator is definitely not nice!

Joking aside, I hope you realize I don't use my weather preferences in decisions to delete or leave posts, I separate my agricultural sun loving self from everything else when it comes to if posts should be deleted or not.

[Jesse]

Joking aside, I hope you realize I don't use my weather preferences in decisions to delete or leave posts, I separate my agricultural sun loving self from everything else when it comes to if posts should be deleted or not.

I would hope so.

[ShawniganLake]

Drier than I was expecting today. Nothing measurable here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

58/32 here today

[seattleweatherguy]

I should clarify. It could amplify into a -EPO or -AO, but the outcome remains largely the same in either scenario.

 

Long story short: There will be some sort of high latitude block through the upcoming several weeks, and the NE-Pacific ridge amplifying poleward will play a big part in that process, as well as the eventual return of the GOA/BC trough.

So cooler summer with less heat waves?

[ShawniganLake]

48/40 here today with 0.09" of rain late this afternoon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain just starting here

[Timmy]

Rain just starting here

Wow, that's nuts!

[Deweydog]

00z is running!

[Front Ranger]

00z is running!

 

Will it add to Tim's angst or Jesse's?

[luminen]

48/44 and rain all day with sustained intensity from 4pm onwards. 

 

Here's a live cam of the snow falling at Grouse mountain:

https://www.grousemountain.com/web-cams/chalet-cam

 

[stuffradio]

I've had more than 0.50" of rain today, but I was at around .47" at 5PM when I recorded the amount. I'm at more than 4" of rain this month now.

[TT-SEA]

Will it add to Tim's angst or Jesse's?

 

00Z run looks lovely to me... but I am a strange one who likes seasons and not year-round winter and rain.   I know most people do not agree.   

[Jesse]

00Z run looks lovely to me... but I am a strange one who likes seasons and not year-round winter and rain.   I know most people do not agree.   

 

Yup, I agree. Good looking run.

[TT-SEA]

Yup, I agree. Good looking run.

 

We agree.   

 

A long run of upper 60s to upper 70s and generally sunny would be just perfect in my opinion.   

[Front Ranger]

Will it add to Tim's angst or Jesse's?

 

Clearly both!

[DareDuck]

Mt Bachelor announced they'll be open for skiing July 4th weekend. Could pick up 5-10" tonight into tomorrow. One more powder day in store!

[Phil]

Given that May 2017 looks to feature the deepest monthly -NAO on record, out of curiosity, what did the other deep -NAO May's look like (temperature wise) across the lower 48?

 

The 9 years featuring the strongest -NAOs (sub -0.75) in May are 1948, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1980, 1993, 1995, 2008, and 2010.

 

(It looks like 2017 could break the monthly record, currently held by 1993).

 

This is how they looked in May:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/B6929294-8C8E-4AAE-B976-07BA94034F95_zpsilr42jua.png

 

Rolled forward, this is how they looked in June:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/FD34F8BA-5255-4E64-A071-3ADEBC3F8383_zpsqj7yltxd.png

 

Many of these years held the -NAO into/through June, but the wavelength relationships change during the summer, and by early/mid June the -NAO favors western troughing, unlike May.

[Front Ranger]

Interesting...I wonder if there are any how-to videos on how to properly fake National Guard service.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush_military_service_controversy

[Front Ranger]

No wonder you're a die hard neo-con!

 

<_>

 

Politics again...

[Phil]

Kinda OT, but it just struck me today that this place is more scenic than I give it credit for.

 

I took these on my evening run today, maybe a few hundred yards from my back door. I need to learn to appriciate this more.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/F18BF5F7-FDA4-4B23-9A82-E2E72E61E1DF_zpsnkrlhx9d.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/35AA00CC-A6C7-4871-AEB1-96C7403B7B68_zpskqxr0puh.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/EC06050A-5060-4AFE-A6B5-881A4685B54A_zpsolvtqg9v.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Given that May 2017 looks to feature the deepest monthly -NAO on record, out of curiosity, what did the other deep -NAO May's look like (temperature wise) across the lower 48?

 

The 9 years featuring the strongest -NAOs (sub -0.75) in May are 1948, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1980, 1993, 1995, 2008, and 2010.

 

(It looks like 2017 could break the monthly record, currently held by 1993).

 

This is how they looked in May:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/B6929294-8C8E-4AAE-B976-07BA94034F95_zpsilr42jua.png

 

Rolled forward, this is how they looked in June:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/FD34F8BA-5255-4E64-A071-3ADEBC3F8383_zpsqj7yltxd.png

 

Many of these years held the -NAO into/through June, but the wavelength relationships change during the summer, and by early/mid June the -NAO favors western troughing, unlike May.

 

 

I really like the position of those anomalies.   That would likely be some awesome weather here.

 

Our worst summer weather usually comes when CA and the Intermountain West are in the center of the warm anomaly. 

[Front Ranger]

Lighten up buddy! It was just a joke.

 

The faking National Guard service joke? I think it's ran its course.

 

Everyone should be taking lessons from you on lightheartedness and not taking things personal, though. You found the cure for butt hurt, share it with the world.

[stuffradio]

Kinda OT, but it just struck me today that this place is more scenic than I give it credit for.

 

I took these on my evening run today, maybe a few hundred yards from my back door. I need to learn to appriciate this more.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/F18BF5F7-FDA4-4B23-9A82-E2E72E61E1DF_zpsnkrlhx9d.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/35AA00CC-A6C7-4871-AEB1-96C7403B7B68_zpskqxr0puh.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/EC06050A-5060-4AFE-A6B5-881A4685B54A_zpsolvtqg9v.jpg

You were running? What were you running from!?

[Phil]

Lighten up buddy! It was just a joke.

I see what you did there.

 

#jokingandtrollingaren'tmutuallyexclusive

[Phil]

You were running? What were you running from!?

I saw something big, fat, and orange on my TV screen.

 

Thought it was Donald, then realized it was my reflection.

[Front Ranger]

I see what you did there.

 

#jokingandtrollingaren'tmutuallyexclusive

 

[Phil]

8139585abd5d0358c12eb1116704e396.jpg

[Jesse]

Unfortunate to see Jared continually taking things so far off topic. Hopefully mods can delete the other side of this.

 

In weather related news, the 00z Ensembles are definitely in line for a major warm spell early next week.

[Front Ranger]

 

Like kryptonite to Superman, or garlic to a vampire. You know me so well.

[Front Ranger]

Unfortunate to see Jared continually taking things so far off topic. Hopefully mods can delete the other side of this.

 

In weather related news, the 00z Ensembles are definitely in line for a major warm spell early next week.

 

The National Guard comment was perfectly on topic, eh?

 

Glad to see you're not taking anything personal, though. 

[Phil]

I really like the position of those anomalies. That would likely be some awesome weather here.

 

Our worst summer weather usually comes when CA and the Intermountain West are in the center of the warm anomaly.

There are several dry/cool years in there. At least according to the ESRL precipitation grids.

[ShawniganLake]

I see the rain gauge at BLI is still broken.

[Jesse]

The National Guard comment was perfectly on topic, eh?

 

Glad to see you're not taking anything personal, though.

Is this like some sort of game where whoever pretends to be taking things the least personally wins?

[Front Ranger]

0z euro shows very warm temps next week followed by a big crash with an impressive little clipper system.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Almost an inch or rain overnight