PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

GIF comparing 00z EPS and 12zEPS 850s. Mean came up a bit in the trough, but i think we'd all take the OP agreement here and OP gets colder than the mean with lots of really cold members. 

That many members in the -10c to -20c range is great

[OysterPrintout]

12z GFS ensemble for pdx should just be this 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Is early January 1974 somewhat similar to what we could see? I think I saw that appear on the CPC analogs once and it looks like PDX had 5 highs in the 20s

I don't know much about that one other than it was dry down here and put up some pretty insane numbers. I think Silver Falls hit 3 with no snow cover. Silverton had 12 straight sub-20 lows and hit single digits twice. Eugene bottomed out at 10. Salem got down to 6 on 1/9/74. 

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Is early January 1974 somewhat similar to what we could see? I think I saw that appear on the CPC analogs once and it looks like PDX had 5 highs in the 20s

Yeah, not a bad analog. Big, slow moving backdoor airmass with a block that hung around for about 12 days. Pretty great cold snap for the Eastside and folks exposed to the gorge outflow. Was rather pedestrian for the Puget Sound.

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

12z GFS ensemble for pdx should just be this 

 

 

at least its free real estate

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, not a bad analog. Big, slow moving backdoor airmass with a block that hung around for about 12 days. Pretty great cold snap for the Eastside and folks exposed to the gorge outflow. Was rather pedestrian for the Puget Sound.

I'm liking the fact that it looks like we'll see a more Gorge based event if we see something.

[TacomaWx]

45/42 temp spread so far today with 0.10” of rain. I hope the potential in the final 2/3rds of the month works out but we will see. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

38 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

Sadly with out a SE ridge I don't see this cold modeled on the European happening.  It will mostly all slide east.

Those ridges in the SE really are a driver that helps the cold push more south and not spread out to the east.

Cold hard truth

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Didn't realize this was 2m temps...wow.

[TacomaWx]

Lol some of y’all or either trolling or just super negative. I’m not sold on late this month by a long shot and won’t be until we’re within a couple days either…but there is real potential in the long range.  

[The Cats Meow]

7 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Cold hard truth

There is lots of potential and the models change every day.  That being said, there is plenty of cold air in the area and it wouldn't take much to drop the hammer on us.

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol some of y’all or either trolling or just super negative. I’m not sold on late this month by a long shot and won’t be until we’re within a couple days either…but there is real potential in the long range.  

I'm just a super negative person about stuff I don't have control over, such as the weather. I don't trust anything I can't work hard to achieve.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol some of y’all or either trolling or just super negative. I’m not sold on late this month by a long shot and won’t be until we’re within a couple days either…but there is real potential in the long range.  

But if its just being a downer to be a downer then no one takes it seriously and it reflects bad on the downer.   Everyone is getting along great overall.    There are going to be lots of different opinions and perspectives in a large group.    

[OysterPrintout]

6 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I'm just a super negative person about stuff I don't have control over, such as the weather. I don't trust anything I can't work hard to achieve.

And yet despite this self awareness you feel a compulsive need to broadcast your negativity and oh you know what it looks like we're out of time let's pick this up next week

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol some of y’all or either trolling or just super negative. I’m not sold on late this month by a long shot and won’t be until we’re within a couple days either…but there is real potential in the long range.  

Being negative and huge weenie is kind of my thing, but I'm with you on this. Huge potential and even if we don't realize it, pretty good chance we pull off a solidly below average month anyways, which in our warming climate is aways a major WIN. Aside from my minor freakout the other day, I feel pretty good about this, and if not we'll have other shots down the road. It's kind of a win-win. I think some people got really invested in low level cold pool #'s that as Dewey pointed out were never realistic. Once that faded and the reality snapped back to more pedestrian 42/28, 40/24 type of days, I think a couple of our members got pretty bummed out. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not bad.

[Deweydog]

Oh…. That feeling when you bump into someone with your cart at a busy a** Costco while trying to check the 18z.

[SnarkyGoblin]

24 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Cold hard truth

And apparently that's what you think this forum needs. You don't need to tell people what they already know - bitter cold on the far west side is extremely rare.

Maybe take your trolling back to the toxic sounding blog you are a part of?

[RentonHill]

18z GFS still a few steps behind the euro it seems. Not even worth posting or following

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Oh…. That feeling when you bump into someone with your cart at a busy a** Costco while trying to check the 18z.

Did you buy them one of those big slices of pizza to make up for it?

[DeepFriedEgg]

7 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

And yet despite this self awareness you feel a compulsive need to broadcast your negativity and oh you know what it looks like we're out of time let's pick this up next week

Don't get me wrong, I definitely get a kick out of the reactions, which are guaranteed if you troll.

[TT-SEA]

Throw out the 18Z GFS... it could not be more different than the ECMWF/EPS for next weekend.

[TacomaWx]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But if its just being a downer to be a downer then no one takes it seriously and it reflects bad on the downer.   Everyone is getting along great overall.    There are going to be lots of different opinions and perspectives in a large group.    

I respect peoples opinions don’t get me wrong. I was pretty pessimistic myself with the late November-Early December events. Not sold on anything myself either not calling anyone out except the obvious trolls. Just sayin there is potential. 

[TacomaWx]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Being negative and huge weenie is kind of my thing, but I'm with you on this. Huge potential and even if we don't realize it, pretty good chance we pull off a solidly below average month anyways, which in our warming climate is aways a major WIN. Aside from my minor freakout the other day, I feel pretty good about this, and if not we'll have other shots down the road. It's kind of a win-win. I think some people got really invested in low level cold pool #'s that as Dewey pointed out were never realistic. Once that faded and the reality snapped back to more pedestrian 42/28, 40/24 type of days, I think a couple of our members got pretty bummed out. 

Wasn’t anything regarding you personally. I agree with your take on it…if it doesn’t work out later this month for the goods it’ll probably work out at some point further down the road. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I respect peoples opinions don’t get me wrong. I was pretty pessimistic myself with the late November-Early December events. Not sold on anything myself either not calling anyone out except the obvious trolls. Just sayin there is potential. 

Huge potential!    And people being unreasonably down does not change that so it doesn't matter what they say.

[TacomaWx]

30 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I'm just a super negative person about stuff I don't have control over, such as the weather. I don't trust anything I can't work hard to achieve.

You’re doing more than just being negative it’s obvious you’re trying to get a rise out of people and get attention while contributing nothing to this place…I’m not too worried about it though because you’ll either get bored or say something stupid and get banned like every troll does eventually. Atleast some of the regulars who troll a bit actually provide some expertise and info. 

[joelgombiner]

First below normal November in the West since 2003. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[snow_wizard]

The good news is the GFS is a total outlier compared to all of the other models.  I even looked at the JMA of all things.  All are much more ECMWF like and the 18z ICON is almost identical to the 12z ECMWF at day 5.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

After 2019, I am hopeful for more big snows, but I honestly can't be disappointed if I don't get them. How many folks were saying, "If this verifies, I'll be happy for [fill-in-the-blank] years" heading into that crazy stretch and are now weenieing it up? 

Just saying that we had a historic snow not that long ago. Would I like another? Sure. But I'm not going to get upset if I don't get it. I'm just going to enjoy what we do get and root for, but not be sad about missing more. Even if it's 38 degree rain. Because at least it's not pineapple express after pineapple express and nothing up in the mountains. 

I'M goung to be like Seahawks fans at the beginning of the season: it's Seattle, we're probably going to suck or have our heart broken. So when good things happen I'll enjoy them, but won't make them your new expectations. (Yeah, it applies to the Hawks today too.)

Loving the fact that it's even a possibility of a white Christmas in Seattle when the historic chances are around 4% for 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas day. Let's go!

[The Cats Meow]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You’re doing more than just being negative it’s obvious you’re trying to get a rise out of people and get attention while contributing nothing to this place…I’m not too worried about it though because you’ll either get bored or say something stupid and get banned like every troll does eventually. Atleast some of the regulars who troll a bit actually provide some expertise and info. 

You realize you do this to everyone you disagree with?  Call them a troll.  Tell them they don't contribute. Lobby for them to be banned.

I've got your number.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The good news is the GFS is a total outlier compared to all of the other models.  I even looked at the JMA of all things.  All are much more ECMWF like and the 18z ICON is almost identical to the 12z ECMWF at day 5.

That 18Z GFS is a joke.   Off the rails.   The 18Z run yesterday was also off the rails the other way.   Garbage.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

First below normal November in the West since 2003. 

That's pretty incredible.  I think we've had a few in WA, but apparently other places didn't.

It doesn't make much sense how there is so much more red on that chart than blue when it goes back to 1948 though.

[joelgombiner]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That's pretty incredible.  I think we've had a few in WA, but apparently other places didn't.

It doesn't make much sense how there is so much more red on that chart than blue when it goes back to 1948 though.

That is odd... It's relative to 1979-2000 which was clearly a period of cool Novembers based on the chart. 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

You realize you do this to everyone you disagree with?  Call them a troll.  Tell them they don't contribute. Lobby for them to be banned.

I've got your number.

I disagree with plenty of people and get along with them Just fine. Me and you just don’t get along because you’re another troll… you got banned because you told Jim “time to get back on your meds” making fun of his mental health…along with several other things. I have 0 issue with anyone I disagree with…I just don’t like trolls like yourself. You’re right…I did lobby for you and that d*ck sounder to get banned because you guys take away from this place. You’ll be banned again soon enough. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

18z GFS still a few steps behind the euro it seems. Not even worth posting or following

Oh yeah this isn't even close. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

After 2019, I am hopeful for more big snows, but I honestly can't be disappointed if I don't get them. How many folks were saying, "If this verifies, I'll be happy for [fill-in-the-blank] years" heading into that crazy stretch and are now weenieing it up? 

Just saying that we had a historic snow not that long ago. Would I like another? Sure. But I'm not going to get upset if I don't get it. I'm just going to enjoy what we do get and root for, but not be sad about missing more. Even if it's 38 degree rain. Because at least it's not pineapple express after pineapple express and nothing up in the mountains. 

I'M goung to be like Seahawks fans at the beginning of the season: it's Seattle, we're probably going to suck or have our heart broken. So when good things happen I'll enjoy them, but won't make them your new expectations. (Yeah, it applies to the Hawks today too.)

Loving the fact that it's even a possibility of a white Christmas in Seattle when the historic chances are around 4% for 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas day. Let's go!

It's higher than 4%.  Just this century we have had 2 white Christmases and just missed it by hours last year.  BTW you might allow yourself to have slightly higher expectations this winter since it has been cold for weeks already.

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The good news is the GFS is a total outlier compared to all of the other models.  I even looked at the JMA of all things.  All are much more ECMWF like and the 18z ICON is almost identical to the 12z ECMWF at day 5.

JMA looks great on Day 8.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That 18Z GFS is a joke.   Off the rails.   The 18Z run yesterday was also off the rails the other way.   Garbage.

I'm beginning to think this might be another failed upgrade.  I was hoping it would at least be good on 500mb.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm beginning to think this might be another failed upgrade.  I was hoping it would at least be good on 500mb.

Early evidence looks really bad.