Phil Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Here is the EPS 10-15 day mean. This could be a decent pattern here. It does look that way until you analyze the progression of the axis of the isobars. Then the big jet/zonal hose job becomes more apparent. At least in my opinion. There should be a break in there during the third week of June as the wave spacing grows before the retrogression/bigger jet extension (in my opinion), but I think in the end I think it's transient and will yield to another deeper trough. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 It does look that way until you analyze the progression of the axis of the isobars. Then the big jet/zonal hose job becomes more apparent. At least in my opinion. There should be a break in there during the third week of June as the wave spacing grows before the retrogression/bigger jet extension (in my opinion), but I think in the end I think it's transient and will yield to another deeper trough. Note sure about a hose job at this time of year. Here was the pattern yesterday... even troughier than the above map and it was a mostly sunny and pleasant day. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060500/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_1.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 I think this month will end up around average. That will be $1,000, please. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 I think this month will end up around average. That will be $1,000, please.I'll go even ballsier and say +\- 3 standard deviations of average. Yea, I like to live life on the edge. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 I think this month will end up around average. That will be $1,000, please. I also think July will be warmer and drier than June. August might end up that way too. Don't ask me how I do it, it's just a gift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 I also think July will be warmer and drier than June. August might end up that way too. Don't ask me how I do it, it's just a gift. Take this one to the bank... November will be wetter than July. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Take this one to the bank... November will be wetter than July. I bet next May will be warmer and drier than next February-April. That's right, a 12-month forecast. Suck it Accuweather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 I bet next May will be warmer and drier than next February-April. That's right, a 12-month forecast. Suck it Accuweather. I am now going to say the exact same thing for 2019. Two year forecast! Bam! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 I am now going to say the exact same thing for 2019. Two year forecast! Bam! Impressively bold. Nailing that kind of call takes a lot of skill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Impressively bold. Nailing that kind of call takes a lot of skill. I know you wanted to take 2020. Good self control. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 I know you wanted to take 2020. Good self control. I think a combination of the approaching Ice Age and the Democratic candidacy of "The Rock" will be throwing off climo pretty hard by then. February could easily end up warmer and drier than May. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Take this one to the bank... November will be wetter than July. In 1976, July was wetter than November at SEA. August was also wetter than December that year. Wacky. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 In 1976, July was wetter than November at SEA. August was also wetter than December that year. Wacky. That is crazy. Just checked Snoqualmie Falls... only about 1.25 inches of rain in July 1976 and it was actually a decent month with many days in the mid 70s to low 80s and dry. Way better than July of 1983 or 1993. For some reason there is no data for November 1976 for that station. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 That is crazy. Just checked Snoqualmie Falls... only about 1.25 inches of rain in July 1976 and it was actually a decent month with many days in the mid 70s to low 80s and dry. Way better than July of 1983 or 1993. For some reason there is no data for November 1976 for that station. Funny thing about 1993 is it actually turned out to be a pretty dry year. Only 28.8" at SEA, and every month from August on was quite dry. Only 1.73" at SEA from August-October. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Funny thing about 1993 is it actually turned out to be a pretty dry year. Only 28.8" at SEA, and every month from August on was quite dry. Only 1.73" at SEA from August-October. Yeah... it turned really nice from August - September. The odd thing with 1993 was the persistent rain and gloom in July. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Side note... I was bored on Saturday morning and reviewed the daily records for every summer at Snoqualmie Falls since 1899. Took maybe 15 minutes. The most interesting aspect that stood out when looking at it all together was how dry and warm the JJA period was from 1900-1930. Troughy periods in June seemed to be much less common and July and August had more really warm days. Summers turned wetter and cooler during the 1930s. Look at the summer of 1922 for an example of a incredible summer in my book. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Note sure about a hose job at this time of year. Here was the pattern yesterday... even troughier than the above map and it was a mostly sunny and pleasant day. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060500/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_1.pngCheck out the precipitation on the EPS mean. That's 2-4" of rain over the next two weeks: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1B2E735B-CD11-48FA-8DB9-1392834D441A_zpsyywr3nyh.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Check out the precipitation on the EPS mean. That's 2-4" of rain over the next two weeks: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1B2E735B-CD11-48FA-8DB9-1392834D441A_zpsyywr3nyh.pngIn the mountains. That shows less than 2" for the lowlands. Less than 1" for southern Vancouver island. Usually the bigger rain events here this time of the year seem to come from big looping ULL, something the models don't handle well more than a few days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 In the mountains. That shows less than 2" for the lowlands. Less than 1" for southern Vancouver island. Usually the bigger rain events here this time of the year seem to come from big looping ULL, something the models don't handle well more than a few days out.The meteograms I looked at for the cities are between 1-3", yeah, but for mid/late June that's pretty legit since this is more of a cold season type jet extension rather than a big ULL on the EPS. It could be wrong, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Funny thing about 1993 is it actually turned out to be a pretty dry year. Only 28.8" at SEA, and every month from August on was quite dry. Only 1.73" at SEA from August-October. A common theme with a lot of our driest years is some really wet dry season months and then weak jetstreams/ridging during the wetter months. We also saw that play out in 2013 with the really wet September and a wet April/May but bone dry most of the rest of the way. Also happened to some extent in 1985 with a wet June and September. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 The ISM is finally trying to pulse up again, and right on cue, the GFS goes into freak out mode. Going to be a long few weeks for long range forecasters. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Some interesting CFS Monthlies.... Haven't checked them in awhile, but some interesting takeaways today. July: Average tempsAugust/Sept: Warmer than normalOctober: Average to slightly aboveNovember: Below normal tempsDecember: Very cold signal http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2017060600/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_6.pngJanuary: Nationwide blowtorchFebruary: Warm west, cold east. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 Looks like PDX is heading towards their fifth 85+ day of the year today. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 12z Euro was a pretty cool run overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 18z GFS is completely lost over the NPAC again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 18z GFS is completely lost over the NPAC again.It's a shame you aren't a model! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 It's a shame you aren't a model!Lol. It just irritates me to see the same model make the same mistakes over and over again. I'm only to d8, but even by 96hrs it screws up the phasing SE of the Aleutians and starts a runaway pinwheel effect afterwards. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 6, 2017 Report Share Posted June 6, 2017 It's a shame you aren't a model! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 I highly doubt it works out this way... but the 00Z GFS shows that its basically dry around Seattle on Saturday with a small area of temps slightly above normal in the middle of a deep trough. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060700/gfs_z500aNorm_us_17.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_16.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017060700/gfs_T2ma_nwus_17.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Death ridge. I'm gonna savor the next few days. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Cooling off faster tonight than last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Death ridge. I'm gonna savor the next few days. Only lasts 6 days there per the 00Z GFS. And you have A/C. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Only lasts 6 days there per the 00Z GFS then back to below normal.Yeah, but I know how these patterns work. We'll catch a 2-3 day break, then go right back into the furnace. Cold fronts rarely make it here after the solstice, but models love to drive them down here in the fantasy range for whatever reason. Especially the CMC. That model tortured me all of last summer showing day 7-10 troughs that never verified. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Yeah, but I know how these patterns work. We'll catch a 2-3 day break, then go right back into the furnace. Cold fronts rarely make it here after the solstice, but models love to drive them down here in the fantasy range for whatever reason. Especially the CMC. That model tortured me all of last summer showing day 7-10 troughs that never verified. Yeah... I retracted my statement since it does not really go below normal for long on the GFS Nonetheless... normal is normal. There has to be periods of below normal weather in the summer. It can't all be hot. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Yeah... I retracted my statement since it does not really go below normal for long on the GFS Nonetheless... normal is normal. There has to be periods of below normal weather in the summer. It can't all be hot.Yeah, it does go below normal, but those days are often the most humid, where convection initiates early and caps temperatures in the low 80s. Fluky cold fronts, like the one in July of 2014, are the exception. The nicest days are actually the ones with westerly downsloping winds that drop dewpoints into the 50s but keep temps up near/above 90*F. We can actually cool down at night on days like this. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Nonetheless... normal is normal. There has to be periods of below normal weather in the summer. It can't all be hot.2015 begs to differ. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 2015 begs to differ. Not for years on end. This feels like the 20th summer in a row that is record setting hot in DC just going by the comments here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 2015 begs to differ.As does 2010 here. I think we had 9 cooler than average days that entire summer. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 7, 2017 Report Share Posted June 7, 2017 Not for years on end. This feels like the 20th summer in a row that is record setting hot in DC just going by the comments here.What's that saying about stones and glass houses? "Hot" and "hotter than average" have different meanings, my friend. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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