luvssnow_spokane Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Nice day... Been drizzle and rain here since about 3pm.. great day for a grad party at a park Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Been drizzle and rain here since about 3pm.. great day for a grad party at a park Yeah... went downhill fast today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Interesting that the wandering ULL for late in the week is still showing up frequently in the models. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061800/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_27.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 It's literally the only way we see excitement here from April to September.Nah. 2008 saw plenty of non-southerly flow related excitement in that period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Monday could be a record heat day for me with a forecast high of 93 (91 in 1988 is previous record). Then there is also a chance of t'storms too. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 It's literally the only way we see excitement here from April to September. If you're not just referring to warmth, there have been many times non-southerly flow has brought summer excitement. At times we can even have summer like weather including storms with northerly flow. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 00z EPS for SEA & PDX, respectfully: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C7B6AD59-6E7E-41DA-A05D-68C7DAD23269_zpsxfiey7qs.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/415B5C1D-9620-444C-A20B-43D6597FBB39_zpshzzcvoxc.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 The ice age has arrived. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/422A7EB8-14BF-4209-A27C-C9D11D4C61BA_zps8n6oicyc.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 The ice age has arrived.http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/422A7EB8-14BF-4209-A27C-C9D11D4C61BA_zps8n6oicyc.pngThat map does not show red for above normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 The ice age has arrived. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/422A7EB8-14BF-4209-A27C-C9D11D4C61BA_zps8n6oicyc.pngYou just killed Tim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 You just killed Tim. Might have killed humanity! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Might have killed humanity!I don't think most people would have died from shock seeing that map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Lots of low clouds around this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 I don't think most people would have died from shock seeing that map. But if that map represented reality... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Plenty of light rain this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Can you find a better 500mb match for June (NH) than 1993? If so, what is it? Because that's the best match I can find. If you were less US-centric with your analogs, you might have more long range forecasting success. I mean, you made a summer forecast based on spring rainfall @ SEA. Not exactly a thorough methodology there. 1993 might be a decent match so for the NH, but it's been piss poor for North America. Which is a large area that most people on here care about. That was my point, nothing more. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 4th of July now within model range... this looks about right. Cool, cloudy, maybe drizzly. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061812/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_53.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 1993 might be a decent match so for the NH, but it's been piss poor for North America. Which is a large area that most people on here care about. That was my point, nothing more.North America is in the northern hemisphere. Seems you are changing your "point" after the fact, once you saw the map and the overall similarities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Nah. 2008 saw plenty of non-southerly flow related excitement in that period.9 years! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 9 years!Literally the ONLY way!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 North America is in the northern hemisphere. Seems you are changing your "point" after the fact, once you saw the map and the overall similarities.No, my point was always just that the U.S. has not seen a similar pattern to 1993 this month. Phil tried to change the discussion, but my point didn't change. It's been the exact opposite on the part of the globe that people here care about. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 No, my point was always just that the U.S. has not seen a similar pattern to 1993 this month. It's been the exact opposite on the part of the globe that people here care about.Sure, but I don't think Phil's original comment pertained only to North America. It seems like he's been more focused on the Pacific/tropics. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Next weekend starting to look hott. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Sure, but I don't think Phil's original comment pertained only to North America. It seems like he's been more focused on the Pacific/tropics.He's made a ton of comments about 1993 being a leading analog going into June. Not just for the tropics, but for the pattern in North America. I could also point out that his analog composite for this month (with anomaly map of the US he posted) looks nothing like how it's turning out, but that wasn't the point. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Pre 9-11 analogs are irrelevant. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 He's made a ton of comments about 1993 being a leading analog going into June. Not just for the tropics, but for the pattern in North America. I could also point out that his analog composite for this month (with anomaly map of the US he posted) looks nothing like how it's turning out, but that wasn't the point. It's definitely been a bad match for North America. Maybe he was banking on the strong jet stream teleconnecting with similar anomalies over the continent. Hasn't worked out that way though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 It's definitely been a bad match for North America. Maybe he was banking on the strong jet stream teleconnecting with similar anomalies over the continent. Hasn't worked out that way though.Too bad. I would have loved a 1993 redux here. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Ups and downs on the 12Z Euro. Definitely a little stronger with the clipper like feature late this week, but also showing the potential for some 90+ weather Sunday/Monday, followed by another cool down. Nice late-early summer pattern overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Moptop Maplebar's latest long range outlook: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/clues-to-the-long-range-forecast-into-july/70001965 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Ups and downs on the 12Z Euro. Definitely a little stronger with the clipper like feature late this week, but also showing the potential for some 90+ weather Sunday/Monday, followed by another cool down. Nice late-early summer pattern overall. All models showing heat for next weekend... safe to assume it will not be happening now. Last Sunday it looked pretty obvious today would be hot. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 All models showing heat for next weekend... safe to assume it will not be happening now. Last Sunday it looked pretty obvious today would be hot.Tomorrow looks pretty warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Tomorrow looks pretty warm. 12Z ECMWF shows an absolutely toasty 69 at SEA tomorrow. Even if you add the usual 3-5 degrees you don't have anything close to a hot day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 12Z ECMWF shows an absolutely toasty 69 at SEA tomorrow. Even if you add the usual 3-5 degrees you don't have anything close to a hot day. We're looking at mid-upper 80s down here tomorrow. Have you retracted the 75 for SEA today yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 We're looking at mid-upper 80s down here tomorrow. Have you retracted the 75 for SEA today yet? I retracted that a couple days ago when the models latched onto this slow moving warm front and low cloud scenario underneath a building ridge. My statement was related to the ECMWF being too cool for what it was showing (at the time total sunshine)... it still will be too cool but the scenario obviously changed. The 500mb heights are quite high... it should be warm and sunny up here today. But warm fronts are insidious. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 1993 might be a decent match so for the NH, but it's been piss poor for North America. Which is a large area that most people on here care about. That was my point, nothing more.1) When it's all said and done, I don't think 1993 will be piss poor over North America, either. 2) You can't forecast accurately for North America in the long run without accurately forecasting the NH system state, so your point is pointless. The system is interconnected. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 He's made a ton of comments about 1993 being a leading analog going into June. Not just for the tropics, but for the pattern in North America. I could also point out that his analog composite for this month (with anomaly map of the US he posted) looks nothing like how it's turning out, but that wasn't the point.Okay, you need to stop putting words in my mouth. I've told you repeatedly what I've said about 1993 (in regards to the US temperature pattern). Stop with the spin. It only makes you look bad. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Sure, but I don't think Phil's original comment pertained only to North America. It seems like he's been more focused on the Pacific/tropics.Flatiron tends to spin the wordage in my forecasts when feelings of inferiority creep into his psyche. I never said any of the things he's claiming I said. The dude is just an insecure blowhard. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 North America is in the northern hemisphere. Seems you are changing your "point" after the fact, once you saw the map and the overall similarities.Yeah, pretty much this. In the end, even North America will show similarities with 1993 in terms of temperature. Also, for the NH overall, the best 500mb match (by far) has been 1993. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 4th of July now within model range... this looks about right. Cool, cloudy, maybe drizzly. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061812/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_53.pngWanna trade? I envy you every summer and early autumn.. I envied you last winter, too. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 18, 2017 Report Share Posted June 18, 2017 Wanna trade? I envy you every summer and early autumn.. I envied you last winter, too. Day 16. It'll change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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