June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Not sure about what?

The GFS MOS errors.

[TT-SEA]

The wandering ULL is still present on the 00Z ECMWF in a week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061900/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_8.png

[Phil]

The wandering ULL is still present on the 00Z ECMWF in a week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061900/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_8.png

Definitely a funky looking thing. Though it does crash the ridge towards d8, in line with the GEFS/GEPS. Or more technically speaking, the ridge retrogrades around it.

[Phil]

The GFS MOS errors.

They're bigly large.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely a funky looking thing. Though it does crash the ridge towards d8, in line with the GEFS/GEPS. Or more technically speaking, the ridge retrogrades around it.

 

 

Looking less threatening on the 00Z ECMWF... just a cool down for us around day 9 with a huge trough in the eastern part of the US.   At least that is what the 00Z run shows.   The 12Z run will probably be totally different.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061900/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png

[Phil]

Looking less threatening on the 00Z ECMWF... just a cool down around day 9 with a huge trough in the eastern part of the US.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061900/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png

It looks like a typical discontinuous retrogression to me. The anticyclone will end up well offshore to start a -PNA regime for later in June and early July.

 

In other words, back to cool/troughy.

[TT-SEA]

It looks like a typical discontinuous retrogression to me. The anticyclone will end up well offshore to start a -PNA regime for later in June and early July.

 

In other words, back to cool/troughy.

 

Appears so.  Very typical in early July.  

[Phil]

Appears so. Very typical in early July.

Retrogressions are very challenging to time accurately, though, because it only takes one fluky shortwave to delay or accelerate the entire process by several days locally, as the modeling has demonstrated recently with that fluky freaky funky fickle little ULL which sort of gets stuck there for a few days.

 

That's not something I've been counting on to verify, but who knows at this point.

[ShawniganLake]

Retrogressions are very challenging to time accurately, though, because it only takes one fluky shortwave to delay of accelerate the entire process by several days, as the modeling has demonstrated recently with that fluky freaky funky ULL which sort of gets stuck for a few days.

Seems like those fluky shortwaves/ ULL's aren't really that uncommon

[Phil]

Seems like those fluky shortwaves/ ULL's aren't really that uncommon

In general no, but during a discontinuous retrogression they usually ride above the central axis of the poleward anticyclone, rather than beneath it. In the latter case, it fragments and destabilizes it enough to make for timing issues in the modeled progression itself.

[Jesse]

Whoah...what happened to the ensemble site this morning?

[Timmy Supercell]

Had a low of 58 this morning, impressive for June. Around 3am it was still well into the upper 60's.

 

In mid summer not many lows get close to 60 or over in this area.

[Jesse]

Had a low of 58 this morning, impressive for June. Around 3am it was still well into the upper 60's.

 

In mid summer not many lows get close to 60 or over in this area.

Interesting setup over the region. A humid (by our standards, Phil) airmass south of a strongish jet up north, aimed at southern BC. Lots of moisture advection with SW flow aloft.

[ShawniganLake]

Interesting setup over the region. A humid (by our standards, Phil) airmass south of a strongish jet up north, aimed at southern BC. Lots of moisture advection with SW flow aloft.

Interesting for sure. Yesterday's high here was the coolest of the month, (57) and this morning's low was the warmest of the month (54).

[TT-SEA]

I would not complain about this pleasant pattern for the 4th of July it it works out...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061912/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_52.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061912/gfs_T2ma_namer_52.png

[Jesse]

I would not complain about this pleasant pattern for the 4th of July it it works out...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061912/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_52.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061912/gfs_T2ma_namer_52.png

Are we going to get Fourth of July maps for every run the next 15 days?

[TT-SEA]

Up to 72 here and mostly sunny.

 

Some low clouds tomorrow morning and clearing by afternoon... but most of the next week looks sunny.    A huge improvement over last week when sunshine was almost completely absent.  

[TT-SEA]

Are we going to get Fourth of July maps for every run the next 15 days?

 

Maybe!  

 

I think you can handle it.  

[Jesse]

Maybe!

 

I think you can handle it.

I guess watching your emotional rollercoaster is somewhat entertaining.

[TT-SEA]

I guess watching your emotional rollercoaster is somewhat entertaining.

 

I am just tracking weather dude.   We have options on both side of the mountains.    I expect cool and troughy per Phil but I am open to being pleasantly surprised.  

[Jesse]

I am just tracking weather dude. We have options on both side of the mountains. I expect cool and troughy per Phil but I am open to being pleasantly surprised.

Well this extremely cool and troughy month will most likely end up solidly above average for the whole region. So expecting pleasant surprises probably isn't too outlandish.

 

Maybe I can expect some pleasant surprises the other way if our fall 2014 redux plays out as successfully as the June 1993 one did.

[Deweydog]

I guess watching your emotional rollercoaster is somewhat entertaining.

It's an Above the Fray Jesse Monday! Will it stay this way or will butt hurt hit like a bird strike before the day is out??? Stay tuned!!!

[BLI snowman]

77/64 right now  

[Jesse]

It's an Above the Fray Jesse Monday! Will it stay this way or will butt hurt hit like a bird strike before the day is out??? Stay tuned!!!

Nobody needs to be above the fray to know who Tim is.

[TT-SEA]

Well this extremely cool and troughy month will most likely end up solidly above average for the whole region. So expecting pleasant surprises probably isn't too outlandish.

 

Maybe I can expect some pleasant surprises the other way if our fall 2014 redux plays out as successfully as the June 1993 one did.

 

We can't just follow 1983 and 1993 forever... we have been doing it for 2 years now.  

 

The fall of 1993 was an absolute gem in my book.   I think I would prefer that repeat.   Rainy days were few and far between from August all the way through November that year.   

[TT-SEA]

Nobody needs to be above the fray to know who Tim is.

 

I like tracking weather patterns?   Even more so for holidays in all seasons?

[James Jones]

I like tracking weather patterns?   Even more so for holidays in all seasons?

Nothing wrong with tracking it, but posting about it every day when it's 2+ weeks out strikes me as kind of silly.

[Jesse]

77/64 right now  

 

Be sure to collect some ball sweat in a ziplock bag and keep it behind the radiator. Think of how much fun it will be to take out six months from now during the dead of winter!

[TT-SEA]

Nothing wrong with tracking it, but posting about it every day when it's 2+ weeks out strikes me as kind of silly.

 

Yeah... I will probably lose interest until it gets closer.   We are 10 days out from having any real idea what will happen.  

[Jesse]

Yeah... I will probably lose interest until it gets closer.   We are 10 days out from having any real idea what will happen.  

 

I think you can handle it.

[TT-SEA]

I think you can handle it.

 

I can indeed.   

[BLI snowman]

Be sure to collect some ball sweat in a ziplock bag and keep it behind the radiator. Think of how much fun it will be to take out six months from now during the dead of winter!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jesse]

 

I thought it sounded like a fun project...

[BLI snowman]

I thought it sounded like a fun project...

 

I hear those labs can get pretty humid.

[TT-SEA]

June of 1993 had 22 days with rain here... so far this month we have had 8 days with rain with very little rain in sight.  

 

I am glad we followed 1993 on a global scale without it being like 1993 here.  

[TT-SEA]

Big improvements on the 12Z ECMWF... the wandering ULL is delayed even more early next week.   The weekend looks very warm and sunny.

 

It won't happen because things will speed up again in all likelihood... but the 12Z ECMWF shows 96 in Portland one week from today and still in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday for most of the region.  

[Jesse]

Big improvements on the 12Z ECMWF... the wandering ULL is delayed even more early next week. The weekend looks very warm and sunny.

 

It won't happen because things will speed up again in all likelihood... but the 12Z ECMWF shows 96 in Portland one week from today and still in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday for most of the region.

Coldest June since 2010 looking like a lock.

[TT-SEA]

67 at SEA at noon... 12Z ECMWF showed 68 for a high today.    Maybe a little cool again Phil?  Surprising.   

 

75 with some passing high clouds here.  

[Deweydog]

Today feels pretty warm on a global scale. Here too.

[Phil]