June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

I used a bunch of analogs, and I weighted them equally. So once again, that's plain false. Maybe some were more representative and/or demonstrably applicable than others, but I never had a "leading analog".

 

Ok.

 

Periods of jet extension aside, my point remains. The pattern across the U.S. overall has been nothing like 1993, so far. Doesn't invalidate your forecast or anything, but anyone expecting a 1993-ish summer in terms of the patterns that affect the U.S. is bound to be disappointed so far.

[TT-SEA]

Nice day...

 

[Phil]

Poor man's 1993 in terms of the NPAC jet. See here, it's actually been a fantastic hemispheric-scale analog.

 

Hard to get a better match, actually.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/33F0514A-7A6C-4646-A030-221DA405C8E0_zpsi2lfgfmd.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/64AD062C-0DBE-448A-BF47-3F917E92FC32_zpszgtfs6sr.gif

[Jesse]

[Phil]

I mean, yeah you can see the more expanded NPAC Hadley Cell compared to 1993, and a somewhat less extended jet (both were predicted), but everything else is actually flawless.

[Phil]

Ok.

 

Periods of jet extension aside, my point remains. The pattern across the U.S. overall has been nothing like 1993, so far. Doesn't invalidate your forecast or anything, but anyone expecting a 1993-ish summer in terms of the patterns that affect the U.S. is bound to be disappointed so far.

Can you find a better 500mb match for June (NH) than 1993?

 

If so, what is it? Because that's the best match I can find. If you were less US-centric with your analogs, you might have more long range forecasting success. I mean, you made a summer forecast based on spring rainfall @ SEA. Not exactly a thorough methodology there.

[TT-SEA]

Fall 2014 was hell on earth.

 

 

It would offset the craptastic Feb-Apr period at least.    

[Front Ranger]

Can you find a better 500mb match for June (NH) than 1993?

 

If so, what is it? Because that's the best match I can find. If you were less US-centric with your analogs, you might have more long range forecasting success. I mean, you made a summer forecast based on spring rainfall @ SEA. Not exactly a thorough methodology there.

 

I'm not the first one here to compare an analog to a U.S. map. You've done it plenty of times. In fact, you did it not that long ago with 1993.

 

And no...I never made a summer forecast based on spring rainfall at SEA.

[Phil]

I'm not the first one here to compare an analog to a U.S. map. You've done it plenty of times. In fact, you did it not that long ago with 1993.

 

And no...I never made a summer forecast based on spring rainfall at SEA.

Can you find a better match or not? Shouldn't be that hard.

 

Also, I never once claimed US temperatures would look like those of 1993. I have no clue where you pulled that one from.

[Front Ranger]

Can you find a better match or not? Shouldn't be that hard.

 

Also, I never once claimed US temperatures would look likthose of 1993. I have no clue where you pulled that one from.

 

You compared U.S. temps to 1993 several times the past couple months, showing similarities. Along with some other analogs, but you brought up 1993 more than any other year, without a doubt. Here is one example.

 

 

Given that May 2017 looks to feature the deepest monthly -NAO on record, out of curiosity, what did the other deep -NAO May's look like (temperature wise) across the lower 48?

 

The 9 years featuring the strongest -NAOs (sub -0.75) in May are 1948, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1980, 1993, 1995, 2008, and 2010.

 

(It looks like 2017 could break the monthly record, currently held by 1993).

 

This is how they looked in May:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/B6929294-8C8E-4AAE-B976-07BA94034F95_zpsilr42jua.png

 

Rolled forward, this is how they looked in June:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/FD34F8BA-5255-4E64-A071-3ADEBC3F8383_zpsqj7yltxd.png

 

Many of these years held the -NAO into/through June, but the wavelength relationships change during the summer, and by early/mid June the -NAO favors western troughing, unlike May.

 

 

And there was at least one time that you posted a map of actual U.S. temps for a period this spring and compared the similarity to 1993.

[Front Ranger]

Again, it's not like I'm the first one to compare a leading analog to the pattern seen in the U.S. That's been a pretty standard way to evaluate forecasts/analogs, since it's larger scale than just the PNW or certain stations in the PNW.

 

And people really don't care if an analog is working out in Timbuktu. 

[Phil]

You compared U.S. temps to 1993 several times the past couple months, showing similarities. Along with some other analogs, but you brought up 1993 more than any other year, without a doubt. Here is one example.

 

There was at least one other time that you posted a map of U.S. temps for a period this spring and compared the similarity to 1993.

Use your brain, dude.

 

I averaged a bunch of years there, not just 1993. I never once claimed US temperatures would follow those of 1993, which had a stronger jet.

[Front Ranger]

Use your brain, dude.

 

I averaged a bunch of years there, not just 1993. I also never claimed US temperatures would follow those of 1993

 

Hey, you've compared U.S. temps to analogs in the past. You've done it this year.

 

So it's silly to act like I'm doing something outrageous by comparing the analog you've talked about the most to the actual pattern we've seen in the U.S. so far this summer.

[TT-SEA]

It seemed too pleasant out there... glad to see more rain moving in.    Warm frontal crap too.   Novemberish!  

 

[Phil]

Hey, you've compared U.S. temps to analogs in the past. You've done it this year.

 

So it's silly to act like I'm doing something outrageous by comparing the analog you've talked about the most to the actual pattern we've seen in the U.S. so far this summer.

Sure I've compared US temperatures. The problem is you never look beyond the US/North America. You're overly US-centric and you don't really understand why patterns occur when they do. You just look at pretty colors and a few numbers then try to wing it and/or hope to get lucky.

 

For the third time, I'll ask you. Can you find a better June 500mb match across the NH than 1993? I certainly can't find one.

[Phil]

You compared U.S. temps to 1993 several times the past couple months, showing similarities. Along with some other analogs, but you brought up 1993 more than any other year, without a doubt. Here is one example.

 

And there was at least one time that you posted a map of actual U.S. temps for a period this spring and compared the similarity to 1993.

In reference to a particular few weeks? Sure. I'd never make a forecast based on one analog and only US temperatures though..that would be completely idiotic.

[GHweatherChris]

It seemed too pleasant out there... glad to see more rain moving in. Warm frontal crap too. Novemberish!

 

Just a few sprinkles actually hitting the ground here.

[Phil]

Can you find a better 500mb match for June (NH) than 1993?

 

If so, what is it? Because that's the best match I can find.

I figured he'd run from this one.

[Deweydog]

I figured he'd run from this one.

Ur a bad a**.

[Phil]

SEA still 62*F as of 4pm. Looks like the "goofy ECMWF" will verify closer to reality than the GFS MOS, which had 68*F.

 

Also, the GFS MOS had PDX at 77*F. So far they've only hit 70*F, so that's possibly a 7 degree miss. Yikes.

[Phil]

The 12z EPS mean had SEA @ 64*F for the high. That might actually end up being too warm.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6E95CC95-140E-4378-8A15-FF0FA21F6A3E_zpsawoxoxjs.png

[Jesse]

It would offset the craptastic Feb-Apr period at least.

Warm muggy southerly flow = best weather EVAR!!

[TT-SEA]

The 12z EPS mean had SEA @ 64*F for the high. That might actually end up being too warm.

 

 

I have never looked at the EPS... those temps seem better.   ECMWF operational temps are just consistently too cool for SEA by 3-5 degrees on probably 80% of the days... as I have mentioned.  

[TT-SEA]

The 12z EPS mean had SEA @ 64*F for the high. That might actually end up being too warm.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6E95CC95-140E-4378-8A15-FF0FA21F6A3E_zpsawoxoxjs.png

 

 

Here is the 12Z ECMWF operational temps... noticeably cooler and guaranteed to run too cool on almost every day.  

 

[Phil]

I have never looked at the EPS... those temps seem better. ECMWF operational temps are just consistently too cool for SEA by 3-5 degrees on probably 80% of the days... as I have mentioned.

From what I've seen, the GFS MOS seems to run very warm, to a much greater extent than the ECMWF runs cool.

[Jesse]

From what I've seen, the GFS MOS seems to run very warm, to a much greater extent than the ECMWF runs cool.

Running warmer than reality is comforting though. So we don't worry about that.

[Phil]

Running warmer than reality is comforting though. So we don't worry about that.

GFS had 68*F today @ SEA. ECMWF had 61*F. So assuming the high stands at 63*F, the ECMWF was actually closer.

[TT-SEA]

From what I've seen, the GFS MOS seems to run very warm, to a much greater extent than the ECMWF runs cool.

 

Like I said... the GFS MOS has issues in both directions depending on the situation.     

 

I expect more from the ECMWF surface details which I look at every day... and its almost always wrong in the same direction by the same extent (3-5 degrees).

[TT-SEA]

GFS had 68*F today @ SEA. ECMWF had 61*F. So assuming the high stands at 63*F, the ECMWF was actually closer.

 

I am not talking about which one is closer.   I am pointing out the undeniably consistent direction the ECMWF is wrong.   

[Phil]

I am not talking about which one is closer. I am pointing out the undeniably consistent direction the ECMWF is wrong.

I only saw 4 days this month where the GFS ran cool, as opposed to 7 days where the ECMWF warm. So unless I've forgotten how to add numbers, I think the GFS is just as "biased".

[TT-SEA]

Running warmer than reality is comforting though. So we don't worry about that.

 

The ECMWF surface maps are so far superior in every aspect.   The cool bias in the Puget Sound area in the warm season is just odd.    

[TT-SEA]

I only saw 4 days this month where the GFS ran cool, as opposed to 7 days where the ECMWF warm. So unless I've forgotten how to add numbers, I think the GFS is just as "biased".

 

I only remember two days this month that the ECMWF operational was too warm for SEA... which I believe was last Monday during a solid marine layer day by 2 degrees and Thursday during the rain event by 1 degree.

[Jesse]

I'd be interested to hear Jim's thoughts about the next several months. I'm sure he is happy to see the chances of a Niño fading.

[TT-SEA]

I'd be interested to hear Jim's thoughts about the next several months. I'm sure he is happy to see the chances of a Niño fading.

 

Jim thoughts?  It will be cold and getting colder and this coming winter will be very cold and snowy and all things point to this result.   Did you have ask or do you find it comforting to see it written down by another human?

[Jesse]

Jim thoughts? It will be cold and getting colder and this coming winter will be very cold and snowy and all things point to this result. Did you have ask or do you find it comforting to see it written down by another human?

Rage!!!

 

Jim is cold biased. But he still has fairly good analysis sometimes. Just you like despite your warm bias. Although Jim is generally better with his grasp of the tropics and such.

[Phil]

I only remember one day this month that the ECMWF operational was too warm for SEA... which I believe was Thursday during the rain event and by 1 degree.

Really? I saw a bunch of warm misses for that first week in the WxBell archives.

[TT-SEA]

Rage!!!

 

Jim is cold biased. But he still has fairly good analysis sometimes. Just you like despite your warm bias. Although Jim is generally better with his grasp of the tropics and such.

 

Definitely better with tropics and such... I have no clue what is going on there or how it affects us.  

[TT-SEA]

Really? I saw a bunch of warm misses for that first week in the WxBell archives.

 

No.   Definitely not on the ECMWF surface map details.   

[Phil]

No. Definitely not on the ECMWF surface map details.

I meant the meteograms. I don't think there are archived surface maps so I'm in the dark there.

[BLI snowman]

Warm muggy southerly flow = best weather EVAR!!

It's literally the only way we see excitement here from April to September.