June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Nice day...

 

Been drizzle and rain here since about 3pm.. great day for a grad party at a park

[TT-SEA]

Been drizzle and rain here since about 3pm.. great day for a grad party at a park

 

 

Yeah... went downhill fast today.    

[TT-SEA]

Interesting that the wandering ULL for late in the week is still showing up frequently in the models.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061800/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_27.png

[Jesse]

It's literally the only way we see excitement here from April to September.

Nah. 2008 saw plenty of non-southerly flow related excitement in that period.

[Timmy Supercell]

Monday could be a record heat day for me with a forecast high of 93 (91 in 1988 is previous record). Then there is also a chance of t'storms too.

[Timmy Supercell]

It's literally the only way we see excitement here from April to September.

 

If you're not just referring to warmth, there have been many times non-southerly flow has brought summer excitement. At times we can even have summer like weather including storms with northerly flow.

[Phil]

00z EPS for SEA & PDX, respectfully:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C7B6AD59-6E7E-41DA-A05D-68C7DAD23269_zpsxfiey7qs.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/415B5C1D-9620-444C-A20B-43D6597FBB39_zpshzzcvoxc.png

[Phil]

The ice age has arrived.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/422A7EB8-14BF-4209-A27C-C9D11D4C61BA_zps8n6oicyc.png

[Anti Marine Layer]

The ice age has arrived.http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/422A7EB8-14BF-4209-A27C-C9D11D4C61BA_zps8n6oicyc.png

That map does not show red for above normal.

[Jesse]

The ice age has arrived.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/422A7EB8-14BF-4209-A27C-C9D11D4C61BA_zps8n6oicyc.png

You just killed Tim.

[TT-SEA]

You just killed Tim.

 

Might have killed humanity!  

[Jesse]

Might have killed humanity!

I don't think most people would have died from shock seeing that map.

[Jesse]

Lots of low clouds around this morning.

[TT-SEA]

I don't think most people would have died from shock seeing that map.

 

But if that map represented reality... 

[ShawniganLake]

Plenty of light rain this morning.

[Front Ranger]

Can you find a better 500mb match for June (NH) than 1993?

 

If so, what is it? Because that's the best match I can find. If you were less US-centric with your analogs, you might have more long range forecasting success. I mean, you made a summer forecast based on spring rainfall @ SEA. Not exactly a thorough methodology there.

 

1993 might be a decent match so for the NH, but it's been piss poor for North America. Which is a large area that most people on here care about. That was my point, nothing more.

[TT-SEA]

4th of July now within model range... this looks about right.   Cool, cloudy, maybe drizzly.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061812/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_53.png

[Jesse]

1993 might be a decent match so for the NH, but it's been piss poor for North America. Which is a large area that most people on here care about. That was my point, nothing more.

North America is in the northern hemisphere. Seems you are changing your "point" after the fact, once you saw the map and the overall similarities.

[BLI snowman]

Nah. 2008 saw plenty of non-southerly flow related excitement in that period.

9 years!

[Jesse]

9 years!

Literally the ONLY way!!

[Front Ranger]

North America is in the northern hemisphere. Seems you are changing your "point" after the fact, once you saw the map and the overall similarities.

No, my point was always just that the U.S. has not seen a similar pattern to 1993 this month. Phil tried to change the discussion, but my point didn't change.

 

It's been the exact opposite on the part of the globe that people here care about.

[Jesse]

No, my point was always just that the U.S. has not seen a similar pattern to 1993 this month.

 

It's been the exact opposite on the part of the globe that people here care about.

Sure, but I don't think Phil's original comment pertained only to North America. It seems like he's been more focused on the Pacific/tropics.

[Jesse]

Next weekend starting to look hott.

[Front Ranger]

Sure, but I don't think Phil's original comment pertained only to North America. It seems like he's been more focused on the Pacific/tropics.

He's made a ton of comments about 1993 being a leading analog going into June. Not just for the tropics, but for the pattern in North America.

 

I could also point out that his analog composite for this month (with anomaly map of the US he posted) looks nothing like how it's turning out, but that wasn't the point.

[Deweydog]

Pre 9-11 analogs are irrelevant.

[Jesse]

He's made a ton of comments about 1993 being a leading analog going into June. Not just for the tropics, but for the pattern in North America.

 

I could also point out that his analog composite for this month (with anomaly map of the US he posted) looks nothing like how it's turning out, but that wasn't the point.

 

It's definitely been a bad match for North America. Maybe he was banking on the strong jet stream teleconnecting with similar anomalies over the continent. Hasn't worked out that way though.

[Front Ranger]

It's definitely been a bad match for North America. Maybe he was banking on the strong jet stream teleconnecting with similar anomalies over the continent. Hasn't worked out that way though.

Too bad. I would have loved a 1993 redux here.

[Jesse]

Ups and downs on the 12Z Euro. Definitely a little stronger with the clipper like feature late this week, but also showing the potential for some 90+ weather Sunday/Monday, followed by another cool down. Nice late-early summer pattern overall. 

[Jesse]

Moptop Maplebar's latest long range outlook:

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/clues-to-the-long-range-forecast-into-july/70001965

[TT-SEA]

Ups and downs on the 12Z Euro. Definitely a little stronger with the clipper like feature late this week, but also showing the potential for some 90+ weather Sunday/Monday, followed by another cool down. Nice late-early summer pattern overall. 

 

All models showing heat for next weekend... safe to assume it will not be happening now.

 

Last Sunday it looked pretty obvious today would be hot.  

[Jesse]

All models showing heat for next weekend... safe to assume it will not be happening now.

 

Last Sunday it looked pretty obvious today would be hot.

Tomorrow looks pretty warm.

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow looks pretty warm.

 

12Z ECMWF shows an absolutely toasty 69 at SEA tomorrow.   Even if you add the usual 3-5 degrees you don't have anything close to a hot day.  

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF shows an absolutely toasty 69 at SEA tomorrow. Even if you add the usual 3-5 degrees you don't have anything close to a hot day.

We're looking at mid-upper 80s down here tomorrow.

 

Have you retracted the 75 for SEA today yet?

[TT-SEA]

We're looking at mid-upper 80s down here tomorrow.

 

Have you retracted the 75 for SEA today yet?

 

I retracted that a couple days ago when the models latched onto this slow moving warm front and low cloud scenario underneath a building ridge.  

 

My statement was related to the ECMWF being too cool for what it was showing (at the time total sunshine)... it still will be too cool but the scenario obviously changed.   The 500mb heights are quite high... it should be warm and sunny up here today.    But warm fronts are insidious.  

[Phil]

1993 might be a decent match so for the NH, but it's been piss poor for North America. Which is a large area that most people on here care about. That was my point, nothing more.

1) When it's all said and done, I don't think 1993 will be piss poor over North America, either.

 

2) You can't forecast accurately for North America in the long run without accurately forecasting the NH system state, so your point is pointless. The system is interconnected.

[Phil]

He's made a ton of comments about 1993 being a leading analog going into June. Not just for the tropics, but for the pattern in North America.

 

I could also point out that his analog composite for this month (with anomaly map of the US he posted) looks nothing like how it's turning out, but that wasn't the point.

Okay, you need to stop putting words in my mouth. I've told you repeatedly what I've said about 1993 (in regards to the US temperature pattern).

 

Stop with the spin. It only makes you look bad.

[Phil]

Sure, but I don't think Phil's original comment pertained only to North America. It seems like he's been more focused on the Pacific/tropics.

Flatiron tends to spin the wordage in my forecasts when feelings of inferiority creep into his psyche. I never said any of the things he's claiming I said. The dude is just an insecure blowhard.

[Phil]

North America is in the northern hemisphere. Seems you are changing your "point" after the fact, once you saw the map and the overall similarities.

Yeah, pretty much this. In the end, even North America will show similarities with 1993 in terms of temperature. Also, for the NH overall, the best 500mb match (by far) has been 1993.

[Phil]

4th of July now within model range... this looks about right. Cool, cloudy, maybe drizzly.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017061812/gfs_z500aNorm_namer_53.png

Wanna trade? I envy you every summer and early autumn..

 

I envied you last winter, too.

[ShawniganLake]

Wanna trade? I envy you every summer and early autumn..

 

I envied you last winter, too.

Day 16. It'll change.