June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Stop dissing my memes.

[ShawniganLake]

So much for the Niño.

 

[Phil]

Oh noes.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/12825B70-262B-4294-93F3-FB1015761AED_zpsona0pgme.jpg

[ShawniganLake]

Oh noes.http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/12825B70-262B-4294-93F3-FB1015761AED_zpsona0pgme.jpg

What model is that? WSI's in house model. Is there anything more current. It was initialized 10 days ago.

[Phil]

What model is that? WSI's in house model. Is there anything more current. It was initialized 10 days ago.

It's the seasonal GFDL. Not sure if it's right (my post was kind of sarcastic) but it looks similar to the latest seasonal ECMWF run.

[Jesse]

Starting to look like the last 1/3 of June could end up on the warm side. Of course given the model acrobatics lately that could change again by tomorrow.

[Phil]

Starting to look like the last 1/3 of June could end up on the warm side. Of course given the model acrobatics lately that could change again by tomorrow.

I'm not worried about that, though I could see a few wild swings as the ridge discontinuously retrogrades westward with time. The "death ridge" stuff has been perpetually stuck in the week 2 period, as the modeling has continued to mishandle the Eurasian and NW Pacific wave-trains.

 

An August heatwave is also starting to look more likely now, in my opinion, though it's still questionable whether it persists into/through the autumn, or merely passes with the intraseasonal forcing. The warming dateline/WPAC waters don't bode well for a cool autumn, though.

[Jesse]

I'm not worried about that, though I could see a few wild swings as the ridge discontinuously retrogrades westward with time. The "death ridge" stuff has been perpetually stuck in the week 2 period, as the modeling has continued to mishandle the Eurasian and NW Pacific wave-trains.

 

An August heatwave is also starting to look more likely now, in my opinion, though it's still questionable whether it persists into/through the autumn, or merely passes with the intraseasonal forcing. The warming dateline/WPAC waters don't bode well for a cool autumn, though.

I don't think there's any atmospheric state that favors a cool autumn for us.

[ShawniganLake]

Starting to look like the last 1/3 of June could end up on the warm side. Of course given the model acrobatics lately that could change again by tomorrow.

Quite a few warm members on the GFS ensembles

[Phil]

The 12z GEFS run is a joke, BTW. It has loads of EPAC convection where there should be subsidence corresponding to the next burst of IO/EHEM convection. Classic bias.

[TT-SEA]

So much for the Niño.

 

IMG_0759.GIF

 

Loving this... neutral is my preference.   

[Phil]

I don't think there's any atmospheric state that favors a cool autumn for us.

Haha, then I'll put it this way. Once into August/September, the system state starts looking a lot like 2014, with the strong WPAC convection/-QBO, which was the theme back in 2014. Though we'll have a weaker sun this go around, which could help keep the MJO active and intensify high latitude blocking.

[Phil]

12z ECMWF is a thing of beauty.

 

If only it wasn't 7+ days away:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/701268E6-E126-4A21-A099-A218DBE74A1C_zpsnpg4ewqg.png

[Jesse]

Haha, then I'll put it this way. Once into August/September, the system state starts looking a lot like 2014, with the strong WPAC convection/-QBO, which was the theme back in 2014. Though we'll have a weaker sun this go around, which could help keep the MJO active and intensify high latitude blocking.

Stop. You're ruining my day.

 

That August-October was my least favorite ever.

[Jesse]

I'm just gonna go ahead and hope that Phil is trolling me. Because good ******* god.

[Guest happ]

I'm not worried about that, though I could see a few wild swings as the ridge discontinuously retrogrades westward with time. The "death ridge" stuff has been perpetually stuck in the week 2 period, as the modeling has continued to mishandle the Eurasian and NW Pacific wave-trains.

 

An August heatwave is also starting to look more likely now, in my opinion, though it's still questionable whether it persists into/through the autumn, or merely passes with the intraseasonal forcing. The warming dateline/WPAC waters don't bode well for a cool autumn, though.

 

D**n; that's 6 weeks away 

[Phil]

I'm just gonna go ahead and hope that Phil is trolling me. Because good f***** god.

Not trolling, however I'm well overdue to bomb a seasonal forecast. So maybe this will be the one.

[Phil]

d**n; that's 6 weeks away

Big western ridges occur under a certain set of boundary conditions, most of which are not present yet but should be present within two months or perhaps a bit less. When the next MJO moves out of the IO/EHEM, the warm IPWP/WPAC area will be very enabling for convection. Could very well be enough to force some degree of low frequency coupling.

[TT-SEA]

It does feel like we are building towards a warm second half of summer into fall.    The first half of 2017 has been pretty ugly overall.    

 

Looking forward to having more summer-like weather.   This past week has been not felt like summer... sunshine has been almost absent.   Typical for June around here... except in the 1900-1930 period when troughy, cold, wet weather was much less common in June.  

[Phil]

Also, it doesn't have to turn out *exactly* like 2014, and it probably won't. The solar forcing is declining, and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (which has EHEM/IO roots) is more positive than 2014. So, there could be more +EPO periods this year.

[TT-SEA]

Also, it doesn't have to turn out *exactly* like 2014, and it probably won't. The solar forcing is declining, and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (which has EHEM/IO roots) is more positive than 2014. So, there could be more +EPO periods this year.

 

I thought this was the summer of 1993?  

[TT-SEA]

Goofy 12Z ECMWF shows 61 for a high at SEA today and cooler out here.   Its not making a forecast for a week out... this is the morning run for today.  

 

It was 62 at SEA already at noon and its 66 here now.  

 

#coolbias

[Phil]

I thought this was the summer of 1993?

In regards to big early season jet extensions and troughy patterns in June/July, yeah it's very similar (though I specifically said the jet wouldn't match 1993 in strength).

 

July looks troughy too. At least through the first 2-3 weeks of the month. I don't see sustained ridging until August, or maybe late July if everything synchronizes perfectly/early.

[TT-SEA]

In regards to big early season jet extensions and troughy patterns in June/July, yeah it's very similar (though I specifically said the jet wouldn't match 1993 in strength).

July looks troughy too. At least through the first 2-3 weeks of the month. I don't see sustained ridging until August, or maybe late July if everything synchronizes perfectly/early.

Definitely correct about the jet extension. In terms of number of rainy days... this June has been way better and there are no rainy days in sight.

[Jesse]

Also, it doesn't have to turn out *exactly* like 2014, and it probably won't. The solar forcing is declining, and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (which has EHEM/IO roots) is more positive than 2014. So, there could be more +EPO periods this year.

If we do manage to enter a godawful 2014-esque pattern, do you see it sticking around deep into the fall, or just being more of a couple week blip?

[Phil]

Definitely correct about the jet extension. In terms of number of rainy days... this June has been way better and there are no rainy days in sight.

That's why I didn't make a precipitation forecast.

 

I'm just talking about the overall pattern, which has basically been a poor man's 1993, That's mostly in line with what I have been thinking, not to mention 1993 is by far the best QBO analog in terms of timing (which is key for fall/winter).

[Guest happ]

Big western ridges occur under a certain set of boundary conditions, most of which are not present yet but should be present within two months or perhaps a bit less. When the next MJO moves out of the IO/EHEM, the warm IPWP/WPAC area will be very enabling for convection. Could very well be enough to force some degree of low frequency coupling.

 

When will this super ridge break down?  Is the 4-corners high setting up?  Thanks Phil

[Jesse]

That's why I didn't make a precipitation forecast.

 

I'm just talking about the overall pattern, which has basically been a poor man's 1993, which is mostly in line with what I have been thinking. Also, 1993 is by far the best QBO analog, at least in terms of timing (which is key).

1993 and 2014 were really different years. You often talk about "antilogs"...those are a good example.

 

Maybe your goal is just to maximize upsetting both me and Tim. This June hasn't really been that bad, and will probably end up above average most places west of the Cascades when all is said and done.

[Phil]

If we do manage to enter a godawful 2014-esque pattern, do you see it sticking around deep into the fall, or just being more of a couple week blip?

I'm not sure it will be as persistent as 2014. As for whether it sticks around, if the WPAC continues to warm relative to the EPAC/ATL, then I think it will stick around since the chance for low frequency ocean/atmosphere coupling will be greatly increased. If we somehow manage to warm the ATL/IO by a significant margin, or cool the WPAC, then that would theoretically prevent it from becoming a semi-permanent background state, however I'm not sure how that could happen.

[Front Ranger]

It does feel like we are building towards a warm second half of summer into fall.    The first half of 2017 has been pretty ugly overall.    

 

Looking forward to having more summer-like weather.   This past week has been not felt like summer... sunshine has been almost absent.   Typical for June around here... except in the 1900-1930 period when troughy, cold, wet weather was much less common in June.  

 

Getting a week or so like the past week is typical in June. That's not typical June weather overall, though.

[Phil]

1993 and 2014 were really different years. You often talk about "antilogs"...those are a good example.

 

Maybe your goal is just to maximize upsetting both me and Tim. This June hasn't really been that bad, and will probably end up above average most places west of the Cascades when all is said and done.

Lol, I'm not going to willingly bust a forecast just to get a rise out of you. Sorry dude.

 

This is a transitional year. I don't stick with the same few analogs during years like this unless there are several years with analogous transitions.

 

Last summer was an example of that. Lots of analogs following strong/super niños allowed me to continue with the same years for most of the summer. Not the case this year. I went cooler for June/July, warmer for August/September. Maybe I'll be wrong but that's the way I'm leaning.

[Deweydog]

Stress.

[Front Ranger]

In regards to big early season jet extensions and troughy patterns in June/July, yeah it's very similar (though I specifically said the jet wouldn't match 1993 in strength).

 

July looks troughy too. At least through the first 2-3 weeks of the month. I don't see sustained ridging until August, or maybe late July if everything synchronizes perfectly/early.

 

It remains to be seen if June even ends up "troughy" overall.

 

So far, the troughing has been centered well offshore, while the PNW has just been on the edge of it, with very little troughing inland (which, let's face it, doesn't exactly match what either of us predicted for this month). And after the second half of the month, this may look quite a bit different.

 

[Phil]

Yeah, the exact longitude of the trough has been west of where my analogs had it by about 10 degrees (which isn't much) but overall the month has progressed how I thought on the hemispheric-scale.

 

The retrogression is still being poorly modeled with the AAM driven mass displacent not captured well during week two, but in the end it should follow the climatology suggested by the tropical forcings.

[Front Ranger]

That's why I didn't make a precipitation forecast.

 

I'm just talking about the overall pattern, which has basically been a poor man's 1993, That's mostly in line with what I have been thinking, not to mention 1993 is by far the best QBO analog in terms of timing (which is key for fall/winter).

 

June 1993 was quite different in terms of weather across the U.S. At least so far, compared to 2017. 

 

Almost opposite, really.

 

 

[Phil]

June 1993 was quite different in terms of weather across the U.S. At least so far, compared to 2017.

 

1993.png

 

MonthTDeptUS.png

I never said June would look like 1993 across the US, so I'm not sure what your point is?

[Front Ranger]

I never said June would look like 1993 across the US, so I'm not sure what your point is?

 

You said the overall pattern has been a poor man's 1993. Hard to see how that's the case when the weather across the U.S. has been so markedly different.

[Phil]

You said the overall pattern has been a poor man's 1993. Hard to see how that's the case when the weather across the U.S. has been so markedly different.

In reference to the extended NPAC jet, dude. Not the entire WHEM circulation.

 

Maybe re-read the context of that conversation?

[Front Ranger]

In reference to the extended NPAC jet, dude. Not the entire WHEM circulation.

 

Ok. 1993 is the leading analog you've been touting the past couple months, for the overall pattern. Normally one expects analogs to have some semblance to the pattern across the U.S., at least. That's large scale stuff.

 

But I guess you're claiming there's zero relationship in this case.

[Phil]

Ok. 1993 is the leading analog you've been touting the past couple months, for the overall pattern. Normally one expects analogs to have some semblance to the pattern across the U.S., at least. That's large scale stuff.

 

But I guess you're claiming there's zero relationship in this case.

I used a bunch of analogs, and I weighted them equally. So once again, that's plain false. Maybe some were more representative and/or demonstrably applicable than others, but I never had a "leading analog".