PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Meatyorologist]

Into GIF form, much better.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Cold air farther south

This might end up being much bigger than we had thought.  That cold is insane!

[Snownerd3000]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Very reasonable.

Thought so too. 

[Cloud]

Base Of the ridge is much better on the 18z 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Cloud said:

 

That block improvement has MASSIVE implications for keeping it colder for longer.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It appears this run might shift the Tuesday system south a little more.   But will only go out through Tuesday morning.  

If I only get an inch out of this whole thing my snow plow is going to be very mad.

[Doinko]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Into GIF form, much better.

Maybe that low will be a bit farther south as well. Could be good for Portland. Too bad I'll be missing this event though

[selkirks]

45 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

So if the GFS completely caves, can we just stop using it in the future...?

In all seriousness, the GFS' failure with Hurricane Sandy compared to the Euro should have been a big driver in significant investments in cloud computing and long-range forecasting in this country. There's been a lot of handwaving and rhetoric in that direction since Sandy, but where are the results?

[Meatyorologist]

The GFS feels it's out to lunch. If the 18z EPS follows the continued trend, the GFS will have even more to answer for.

[Cloud]

Hour 72 

[thickhog]

Just now, selkirks said:

In all seriousness, the GFS' failure with Hurricane Sandy compared to the Euro should have been a big driver in significant investments in cloud computing and long-range forecasting in this country. There's been a lot of handwaving and rhetoric in that direction since Sandy, but where are the results?

Has there been adequate funding?

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

If I only get an inch out of this whole thing my snow plow is going to be very mad.

Yea 1 inch would be lame. 

[Cloud]

End of run.  

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Base Of the ridge is much better on the 18z 

There's still a shot this goes right through Christmas.

[SouthHillFrosty]

This system is tracking south…. This will be a Portland special!

Edited December 17, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This might end up being much bigger than we had thought.  That cold is insane!

dig cold dig!!! you can do et!

 

no reason such a monster can't manage to get into the area.

[TT-SEA]

Definite shift south with moisture band at 90 hours compared to 12Z run.

12Z on top and 18Z on bottom.    Tuesday might end up being a snow day for Portland.

[Cloud]

The last 2 frames are not comparable so at hour 84 is best. Clear improvements. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

End of run.  

Better than 12z at this point.  Getting very excited now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

This system is tracking south…. This will be a Portland special!

They're fuckking due. I hope places in the central Willamette Valley that haven't had a big event in years get buried!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This system is tracking south…. This will be a Portland special!

Wow! That would be amazing

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This system is tracking south…. This will be a Portland special!

Portland is totally on the table now.  Maybe well south of that.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea 1 inch would be lame. 

I sure hope the models just haven’t picked up on moist possibilities yet. I have noticed many of my snowfall additions are not modeled very well until 24hrs or less from happening. 

[Cloud]

I’m willing to give OR their snow for a prolonged period of cold. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, Terreboner said:

So to summarize:

Euro went apeshit with epic cold.

Every other model said hell no.

Euro regressed a little towards every other model.

Every other model except for GFS started improving.

All models including Euro now are a middle ground between epic and warm.

Now GFS is coming back towards the Euro and others.

Did I miss anything?

Euro has done the opposite of regress.

[WeatherGeek2022]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

If I only get an inch out of this whole thing my snow plow is going to be very mad.

only an inch out of this would look insulting compared to november being any kind of preview for winter.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Portland is totally on the table now.  Maybe well south of that.

Tiger could be on the table soon at this rate!

[snow_wizard]

The fine changes on this run lead me to think we could get crushed by the Arctic air mass.  Incredible turn of events.  

#rugpush

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I’m willing to give OR their snow for a prolonged period of cold. 

We will still get snow in all likelihood.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This system is tracking south…. This will be a Portland special!

Wow it’s already snowing at my place in the foothills by that time. Score. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cloud said:

I’m willing to give OR their snow for a prolonged period of cold. 

Chances are we get a bit of snow south of Seattle in this scenario too. Usually happens with the models under doing precip on north side of the low. I’d be fine with just 1” of snow next week. 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This system is tracking south…. This will be a Portland special!

Moving north at the point, maybe Seattle and Portland score.

[Cloud]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This system is tracking south…. This will be a Portland special!

Also some midnight highs on Tuesday!

[Slushy Inch]

Good trends

[Cloud]

That is just an incredible amount of cold that can be tapped into and very close by. 

[Cold Snap]

I’m really excited about the convergence zone possibilities Sunday Night. If I get snow Sunday night I would be fine with the Tuesday storm going south into Portland.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Chances are we get a bit of snow south of Seattle in this scenario too. Usually happens with the models under doing precip on north side of the low. I’d be fine with just 1” of snow next week. 

5-12 inches PDX to Seattle. 

[Slushy Inch]

Always good to see, can't wait to see how crazy the control is.

[snow_wizard]

850s are 2C colder at hour 90 vs 12z hour 96.  Wow!

The band of precip shown at the end is lifting north and getting into the Central Puget Sound.