PNW December 2022 - Part II

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

The "cave" model?  Let's hope so.

We'll know pretty quick. Should I start using election analogies for this again? 

Edited December 16, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Terreboner]

Just now, Cloud said:

PSCZ is finnicky so there's always a chance. But as always, I think the Sno/King Counties line are always the sweet spot. 

With CAA there is always multiple zones, Skagit county, off of the strait, and usually a sneaky one near Seattle or even south.

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IBR Chris sent me this on FB saying he would enjoy 60s the week after Christmas. LOL.

oh my god plz no 60s during the core of winter.

[Terreboner]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We'll know pretty quick. Should I start using elect analogies for this again? 

Go for it.

[Slushy Inch]

Any GFS changes should come into view in next frames. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 at Burns. Good grief.

[Slushy Inch]

Little better so far.

[Terreboner]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12 at Burns. Good grief.

Still only 19 here.  Temp will start dropping in about a half an hour.  Will be fun to watch the fog roll in again too.

[Mid Valley Duck]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The low placement is fantastic even for further south down the valley. I think even our Millersburg friend might have a chance at face value, the icon is stingy as hell with snow. PDX is money here. 

I just want a chance!

[Slushy Inch]

[Mid Valley Duck]

Looking at the 12z EPS for PDX was 40% cold, 30% cool and 30% above average/torch for Tuesday-Wednesday

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

I just want a chance!

Almost about the same point due north as Madras.  I'm about 25 miles south of that but of course we will get better cold pooling being on the cold side of the mountains.  I want a regionwide event from Bellingham down to Medford.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was going to compare this GFS run to the Dr. Oz campaign on election night... But it kind of fell apart...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 54 I'm not seeing any significant differences in this GFS run. Flurry storm for Puget Sound on Sunday afternoon. 

[Cloud]

Baby steps.. heading into day 2.5... 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At hour 54 I'm not seeing any significant differences in this GFS run. Flurry storm for Puget Sound on Sunday afternoon. 

Slightly lower 500mb heights.

[Meatyorologist]

The GFS is a smidge better, but still words apart from other guidance, even at just 48 hours out. It's going to appear either very stupid or very smart come two days from now.

[SnowPlz]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

The GFS is a smidge batter, but still words apart from other guidance, even at just 48 hours apart. It's going to appear either very stupid or very smart come two days from now.

Always assume an alcoholic is drinking 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 66 you can see it starting to form that energy way up north. 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The GFS is a smidge better, but still words apart from other guidance, even at just 48 hours out. It's going to appear either very stupid or very smart  incredibly stupid come two days from now.

Fixed that for you.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Baby steps.. heading into day 2.5... 

We need more then baby steps two days out 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Snyder will do a livestream between 5 and 6 this afternoon. 

[Slushy Inch]

Please can we have model agreement?? This getting ridiculous.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep this GFS run is DOA. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We need more then baby steps two days out 

Its clearly trying to catch up and on its own when it comes to the Op runs. It'll get there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs not backing down. WTF

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We need more then baby steps two days out 

It won't budge... so we continue to wait! 

[SnowWillarrive]

Keep in mind Judah programs the GFS 

[Meatyorologist]

Wild.

[Requiem]

Me seeing the GEM 

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Wild.

Not even close!

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Keep in mind Judah programs the GFS 

That would explain a lot.

[Meatyorologist]

GEFS will be interesting. 12z suite held unilateral support for its operational member. Maybe that won't hold this time.

[Slushy Inch]

Did the upgrade break the GFS? I've never seen this level of disagreement this close! 

[Cloud]

I'm gonna say the GFS is wrong. phuck it. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

GEFS will be interesting. 12z suite held unilateral support for its operational member. Maybe that won't hold this time.

We can only hope. 18z Euro should settle things.

[RentonHill]

samesies

[Slushy Inch]

Baby steps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS has been ROCK solid. I will give it that. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

samesies

Go out a few more hours and it's more different, but yes nearly the same, still bad.