PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

You are thinking of Tuesday's storm. I am talking about a more subtle convergence-related feature on Monday. Could be several hours of light snow.

Lol, guess I can't read

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z NAM is more suppressed with the low.

Sorry, still unfamiliar with a few terms. What does suppressed mean and how does that effect things in this case?

[Slushy Inch]

6z nam still a system way up north.

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Sorry, still unfamiliar with a few terms. What does suppressed mean and how does that effect things in this case?

Probably just means that the low is not as deep (it's not as low of a low), meaning there's gonna be less cold air to work with. Doesn't mean that will happen, just one model

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Probably for 99% of you here that dont get it, the 1%, I appreciate you.

 

David Lynch is great

[Slushy Inch]

Ends up ok for Puget Sound? Again, looks like models are trending towards higher moisture for this system.

[gusky]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Ends up ok for Puget Sound? Again looks like models are trending higher moisture for this system.

Definitely trending wetter. 

[Slushy Inch]

Not good.

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Sorry, still unfamiliar with a few terms. What does suppressed mean and how does that effect things in this case?

Suppressed just means south. Arctic air literally suppresses it. But It looks like I judged too soon as it bombs out pretty well here.

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

David Lynch is great

Symbolizing how disturbing these models are.

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

You are thinking of Tuesday's storm. I am talking about a more subtle convergence-related feature on Monday. Could be several hours of light snow.

I feel like low placement is probably something to bet on the euro. If it’s losing to the NAM et al this close to the event then why do we even bother

[VancouverIslandSouth]

39 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

In typical fashion, geographical bias has to take over on this forum.  Love all you guys for it.

In case you didn't know Mount Baker holds the world record for most seasonal snow at 1141".

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

I feel like low placement is probably something to bet on the euro. If it’s losing to the NAM et al this close to the event then why do we even bother

IDK, low placement with complicated TPV lobe-related dynamics is a tough call for any model. It could really go either way. Climo says trend north but who knows!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

14 minutes ago, gusky said:

This is just too far. I feel guilty posting this.

Not good for MossMan

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GEFS has something close to a classic retrograde to start the New Year. Also brings back a strong -NAO signal.

18z did too and I thought the same thing but deleted it because I didn’t want to jinx it

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

IDK, low placement with complicated TPV lobe-related dynamics is a tough call for any model. It could really go either way. Climo says trend north but who knows!

Climo includes average snowfall!

[Requiem]

20 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Small chances around near year's

These ensembles are downright awful-- we might be lucky to get a dusting 

[Slushy Inch]

23 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Small chances around near year's

[Dave]

I'm laughing at my buddy that moved to Kapispell because he hated Oregon politics. He doesn't even like cold or snow. They are having one of the coldest starts to winter ever.

 

[Requiem]

RGEM looks weaker with that northern low at first glance.

[Meatyorologist]

Models are starting to converge into two camps for Tuesday's system.

Camp One: GFS, NAM, CMC

Low bombs out, warm sector shafts Seattle south.

Camp Two: Euro, ICON

Low fails to form; instead an occlusionary front stalls somewhere between Portland and Everett, dumping a narrow band of moderate snow. Sharp cutoff to the north and south.

A combination of the two could bring a substantial snowstorm for someone.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Building a thing. Might be fun for some of you who want to track the storm.

https://deadbird.singlepane.io/d/pV9O-f5Vk/current-conditions

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

RGEM looks weaker with that northern low at first glance.

Nope. It seems worse. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Forum Admin said:

Building a thing. Might be fun for some of you who want to track the storm.

https://deadbird.singlepane.io/d/pV9O-f5Vk/current-conditions

This is a really cool project man

[Meatyorologist]

IDK, the RGEM looks more suppressed and has deeper Arctic air than its 00z run. It usually is pretty happy to bomb things out too, especially when Arctic air/SST interactions are involved. 

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Nope. It seems worse. 

Not sure if it's a good run as a whole, but the northern low is definitely weaker and further south than the disastrous last run.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

Are we really starting to "talk" about losing this event altogether for a majority of locations? 

Is that what's happening? 

As long as EURO holds I'm optimistic someone in the I-5 corridor south of Bellingham could score.

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Nope. It seems worse. 

Nope, bad view. Pivotal sucks ass for its awful interface/region views.

RGEM is substantially colder inland and far, far more suppressed. The details don't quite work out, but it's a pretty large cave to the occlusionary camp.

[Perturbed Member]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nope, bad view. Pivotal sucks a** for its awful interface/region views.

RGEM is substantially colder inland and far, far more suppressed. The details don't quite work out, but it's a pretty large cave to the occlusionary camp.

Yeah you guys are right, I zoomed out and noticed what you guys were talking about. Indeed more suppressed and weaker and further south with the low. Somehow the end result is still meh but I suppose this is progress. 

[Perturbed Member]

8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Not sure if it's a good run as a whole, but the northern low is definitely weaker and further south than the disastrous last run.

Yep, I stand corrected. Looking at it on tropical tidbits made it easier to see. The 00z RGEM run was so  far north with that low that it wasn't even showing up on that Pivotal map. 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS running. Already looks better from a 500mb perspective

[gusky]

23 minutes ago, Forum Admin said:

Building a thing. Might be fun for some of you who want to track the storm.

https://deadbird.singlepane.io/d/pV9O-f5Vk/current-conditions

Where is the data from? Is it just data from the locations of everyone here or does it somehow pull from weather stations?

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS running. Already looks better from a 500mb perspective

 

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z GFS running. Already looks better from a 500mb perspective

That 540 line is in Federal way instead of Downtown. Seems like a pretty good change for hour 18

[snow_wizard]

6z ICON is great for Seattle southward.  This is starting to come together now.

[Meatyorologist]

On a large and local scale, the 06z GFS is improved in almost every way.

[Meatyorologist]

[Meatyorologist]

GFS makes a similar move towards the flatter occlusionary group. Going to stay all snow in Seattle on this run.

[gusky]

Wind shift around 1pm for Seattle on the 06z.

[gusky]

Pretty much same trend on GEFS. 12 hour already slightly better

[snow_wizard]

I am really getting pumped now.  GFS is on board for snow for the Central and South Sound.