PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

The dalles down to 31 after torching last night, west-east gradient has really slacked off.  Now sure when to expect the east wind to return.

ECMWF shows the east wind finally punching through in Portland on Wednesday evening.  

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just checked property cams. Snowing there so the arctic front is passing there. Currently 18 degrees there so it will be neat to see how much temp falls there. 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Does the 06z still show that CZ today?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But the cold air has not moved much even by tomorrow afternoon... might take until Wednesday for Seattle.

I was talking about this earlier.  The push is slower and weaker and that is not good.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The dalles down to 31 after torching last night, west-east gradient has really slacked off.  Now sure when to expect the east wind to return.

PDX NWS says Monday evening increasing Gorge outflow.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Does the 06z still show that CZ today?

Yep... main action should be between 5-11 p.m.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It's beginning just like the Euro has been saying it would. And what else does the Euro have to say about today?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It's beginning just like the Euro has been saying it would. And what else does the Euro have to say about today?

ECMWF says you won't get above freezing up there until maybe late Friday.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That crazy bullseye has been on the eastern side of Olympics for days now. 

[Doinko]

This is some extrenely impressive gorge outflow

 

[T-Town]

Looking tenuous for T Town. Guess we’ll see how it plays out. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Seems to be showers coming in off the Strait of Georgia and plowing onshore. Showers seem to be training.

This pattern was very productive for me last December.

Now winding down. More later.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Just for fun... the 12Z NAM doesn't even show a system on Tuesday now.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That crazy bullseye has been on the eastern side of Olympics for days now. 

Quilcene gonna score.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for fun... the 12Z NAM doesn't even show a system on Tuesday now.   

Just going to say that, this is also the idea of the gfs to a lesser extent. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for fun... the 12Z NAM doesn't even show a system on Tuesday now.   

Could mean colder down south but the NAM has been all over the place. I think there's a good chance Seattle gets at least a few inches. I'm not that disappointed because Thursday looks frigid in PDX. I'm not sure of the exact highs but the GFS looked like a high around 22/23 and the Euro had aa high around 20

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for fun... the 12Z NAM doesn't even show a system on Tuesday now.   

Noticeably colder for Monday night tho  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just going to say that, this is also the idea of the gfs to a lesser extent. 

Just noticed that... not much there on the GFS either.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Timmy said:

Noticeably colder for Monday night tho  

Yeah... it doesn't show the western side of the trough buckling like the ECMWF shows.   This prevents southerly flow ahead of that feature and its just colder and drier. 

[ShawniganLake]

20 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Arctic front is between cache creek and Clinton bc currently. I expect it to cross the lower mainland after sunrise tomorrow 7-10am

 

25 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was talking about this earlier.  The push is slower and weaker and that is not good.

It’s a couple hours ahead of what I was expecting 24hrs ago. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

KABOOM!

Yeah, baby! Thundersnow! We got it!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Seattle could actually escape much snow until Thursday the way things are looking. 

[TT-SEA]

Then you have the 06Z ICON which shows lot of moisture and way south.    This is for an event that starts in 48 hours.   Crazy.

 

[Doinko]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

KABOOM!

Yeah, baby! Thundersnow! We got it!

Wow

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Seattle could actually escape much snow until Thursday the way things are looking. 

ECMWF strongly disagrees still... so I guess its possible but unlikely.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Then you have the 06Z ICON which shows lot of moisture and way south.    This is for an event that starts in 48 hours.   Crazy.

 

Just a tiny bit south would be great!

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

KABOOM!

Yeah, baby! Thundersnow! We got it!

That is amazing!   You would never think that based on the radar.    Very dynamic up there where the arctic air meets the maritime air.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Noticeably colder for Monday night tho  

 

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it doesn't show the western side of the trough buckling like the ECMWF shows.   This prevents southerly flow ahead of that feature and it’s just colder and drier. 

12z NAM shows a better push of Arctic air into the Columbia Basin by Tuesday 4pm compared to the 6z.

6z:

12z:

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Just a tiny bit south would be great!

ICON shows an incredible temperature gradient between Seattle and Portland on Tuesday...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Then you have the 06Z ICON which shows lot of moisture and way south.    This is for an event that starts in 48 hours.   Crazy.

 

Honestly this has stressed me out lol. The models that is. I've watched many of these in my day and this has been probably the craziest ride ever. Or I'm just getting old.

Edited December 18, 2022 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[Doinko]

NAM does bring some light snow Wednesday morning

 

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ICON shows an incredible temperature gradient between Seattle and Portland on Tuesday...

What are highs/lows like on the ICON for Thursday?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

KABOOM!

That's a two-fer baby!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ICON shows an incredible temperature gradient between Seattle and Portland on Tuesday...

One thing we both have thought all along and it looks to be happening.  The warm up continues to be pushed back. And probably will wait till Monday or so if I had to guess.

[Doinko]

NAM has a 15 degree difference in temps for Portland Wednesday at 10 AM than the previous run

 

 

[Doinko]

Just now, Doinko said:

NAM has a 15 degree difference in temps for Portland Wednesday at 10 AM than the previous run

 

 

Portland doesn't get above 25 on this run on Wednesday. While it was getting into the 40s on the 06z

[T-Town]

30 degrees with a north wind at Bellingham airport, 38 with south wind in downtown Bellingham. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

One thing we both have thought all along and it looks to be happening.  The warm up continues to be pushed back. And probably will wait till Monday or so if I had to guess.

Yeah... the trend towards a much slower warm up are very clear now and its probably not done being delayed.    Good news is that means places that get snow will probably still have snow on the ground on Christmas.    Potential problem I see that it might also mean more ice problems and power outages for Christmas weekend would not be fun.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ICON shows an incredible temperature gradient between Seattle and Portland on Tuesday...

This air mass is very cold so hopefully it can actually make it that far south.  These could actually be on the warm side.