PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Doinko]

Seems like this was a great first winter to join this forum. We've already had multiple events to track and it's only mid December

[MossMan]

Sumas is down to 25 with light snow. 
27 in Lynden. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What do the temps on Thursday/Friday look like for Portland and Seattle according to thd 06z control?

It seems like it might have an issue with temps because this would be pretty insane... but it trended colder so that is the takeaway for me which is a slower warm up.  

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

I got to bed with 10+ inches planned by the NWS, I wake up and now its hardly anything until Tuesday now and that's cut in half... why do they change those numbers so D**n much?

I have a gut feeling my area will be moisture starved until later next week. I might not have anything on the ground until then. But eventually everything will be snowy for most of us. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It seems like it might have an issue with temps because this would be pretty insane... but it trended colder so that is the takeaway for me which is a slower warm up.  

Back to back maxes in the teens in Portland? Wow. Looks like some extremely strong east winds as well

32 in Eugene as well... Could it happen?

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

I got to bed with 10+ inches planned by the NWS, I wake up and now its hardly anything until Tuesday now and that's cut in half... why do they change those numbers so D**n much?

They said 10 inches tonight?    No model has shown anything remotely close to that.    Even in the heart of the c-zone near the I-90 corridor it looks like 2-3 inches tonight.    You could definitely get 10 inches on Tuesday though.  

[TacomaWx]

Gfs shows us staying all snow here still. About the same as the last run with the low placement. At this point I’d just really like to know if this’ll happen or not but I won’t until the event happens probably good times. 

[LowerGarfield]

18 minutes ago, TeacherLori said:

Not gonna lie; was disappointed to wake up this morning and see that our predicted snowfall was pushed back from 8am to 3pm. Is this thing gonna happen or not? (And why do I spend so much time here, combing the forum, instead of doing other productive things??)itr

More fun to grade the ECMF and the GFS than papers.

[Blizzard777]

Pretty consistent  temp of 37* like many of you.
South winds 15-20 so doing my part to fuel the collision for y’all up north of me

Sacrifices must be made 

[T-Town]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Argentina is going to win.

France looks completely overmatched. Not what I was expecting. 

[dhoffine]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

They said 10 inches tonight?    No model has shown anything remotely close to that.    Even in the heart of the c-zone near the I-90 corridor it looks like 2-3 inches tonight.    You could definitely get 10 inches on Tuesday though.  

Tonight was 2-4, was just saying 10 inches for the whole event tonight through Wednesday.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Gfs shows us staying all snow here still. About the same as the last run with the low placement. At this point I’d just really like to know if this’ll happen or not but I won’t until the event happens probably good times. 

Wow!!   GFS shifted way south on Tuesday.     

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Gfs shows us staying all snow here still. About the same as the last run with the low placement. At this point I’d just really like to know if this’ll happen or not but I won’t until the event happens probably good times. 

Hoping the South Sound does well. I selfishly want the NAM solution but that would be pretty dry for everyone.

[Snownerd3000]

BLI-YWL now at -16.1. Should be pretty strong outflow with this

[TT-SEA]

Just now, dhoffine said:

Tonight was 2-4, was just saying 10 inches for the whole event tonight through Wednesday.

10 inches still looks like a good bet for your area.   I just think you are probably too far south for the c-zone tonight.    

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Looks like the arctic has passed downtown Bellingham. Wind switched from SW to NE, and temp fell from 38 to 34 in 20 minutes.

[Cloud]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Some short-term models for today’s event up here. A good day to be living near the top of a ridge north of the Fraser River! (Don’t worry southerners, your turn is coming.)

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement for Tuesday now.    Seems like that the Seattle area is in a good spot.  

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow!!   GFS shifted way south on Tuesday.     

Yep the south sound is not out of the game yet. I’m just going to try and hope for the best with snow tonight and hopefully Tuesday works out. 

[Doinko]

Cold east wind arrives Wednesday evening

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 35 here which is chillier than I expected with the cloud cover. Going to be fun tracking the arctic front to the north the next few days.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a gut feeling my area will be moisture starved until later next week. I might not have anything on the ground until then. But eventually everything will be snowy for most of us. 

I think you will be pleasant surprised.   The GFS and ECMWF shows you getting a decent amount of snow on Tuesday.   Get that plow ready!  

[Cloud]

Cold

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I still have maybe a half to an inch of snow depth from four days ago. I decided to place my board where the indent shows (i.e. a snow hole where the board was) rather than eyeballing and double checking the spot like I usually do.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yep the south sound is not out of the game yet. I’m just going to try and hope for the best with snow tonight and hopefully Tuesday works out. 

Need the ECMWF to shift a little south on the 12Z run... which I think will happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Low of 35 here which is chillier than I expected with the cloud cover. Going to be fun tracking the arctic front to the north the next few days.

South of 46N all eyes have now turned to the mid range and just how juicy that will be. Also potential cool down around New Years. 

[Blizzard777]

Relieved this is finally playing out and we can enjoy excitement from others in the target zones! 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you will be pleasant surprised.   The GFS and ECMWF shows you getting a decent amount of snow on Tuesday.   Get that plow ready!  

I’m hoping we get at least enough to cover the ground today as well! Not holding my breath though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is super aggressive with the low level CAA Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Need the ECMWF to shift a little south on the 12Z run... which I think will happen.

No thank you. It’s fine where it is. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS significantly delaying the warm up and overrunning event from its 00Z run.    This trend is across all the models now except the ICON.   I think it stays dry everywhere until Friday.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS is super aggressive with the low level CAA Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.

Euro too. It thinks PDX will advect into the teens and stay there all day

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Need the ECMWF to shift a little south on the 12Z run... which I think will happen.

I’m not getting my hopes up even if it does shift the low back to where the 00z run was. It’s going to be really close for anyone south of Seattle…probably won’t know until we actually see the storm moving in real time. 

[Blizzard777]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yep the south sound is not out of the game yet. I’m just going to try and hope for the best with snow tonight and hopefully Tuesday works out. 

I’ve got an 8 am follow up appointed for my windshield being replaced in my 4Runner before my road-trip.  Sensors were all out of wack so they have to redo.  Hopefully this appointment won’t be impacted.  

[Prairiedog]

1 hour ago, FroYoBro said:

Some chilly rain moving into the Portland area this morning. 38 degrees with light rain here. 
 

I’m ready for another day of pathetic model riding! 

34f and drizzle now.  Temp has remained mostly constant all night.  33f at 9pm last night. 

[Doinko]

Spokane!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Euro too. It thinks PDX will advect into the teens and stay there all day

I have a hard time believing that, but who knows. Would be fantastic if it happened. I think pulling off hood #s while avoiding a true regional upper level blast is a best case scenario for the rest of winter and posterity. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Temperature trends IMBY.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

No thank you. It’s fine where it is.