jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Nice deep-dive from DTX (am) A significant model trend amongst virtually all of the global deterministic solutions (ECMWF/GFS/Canadian) has been for a delayed low deepening and subsequent eastern shift to the low pressure track (STL-Fort Wayne-Southeast Michigan). This model trend, which began with the 19.12Z suite, has only firmed up in the 20.00Z guidance. The cause for the delayed low deepening is because of a double PV anomaly structure that is resolved in the broad southern Canadian trough, and a slower progression in drawing the western PV anomaly southeastward into the Ohio River Valley. Touched on this in my discussion from two nights ago that it was probably going to be difficult to get that entire western potential vorticity trough to fold down that quickly while being phased to the left exit region dynamics from the start. Not surprisingly then, that as we moved forward the models began resolving the mass fields differently which has resulted in less viscous behavior from a fluid dynamics perspective. So now as it stands, virtually all of the operational runs are showing this double PV anomaly structure and have really converged towards the ECMWF solution from 24 hours ago. This continues to point in a qualitative sense that confidence remains higher than normal for a Day 3 and Day 4 system. Very interesting to look at the Cluster Analysis output from the 19.12Z GEFS and see the variability of both EOF1 and EOF2 is down to some minor height differences under the upper level jet axis over the western United States. All of the 500mb height variance that was present in earlier ensemble output over the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay has vanished. Thus, this technique provides quantitative support that timing of the jet/trough has been worked out and the GEFS solution space has taken a big jump towards what has been the ultra consistent ECMWF consensus. Cluster phase space shows a very good agreement amongst the CMCE-EPS-CMCE at Day 4. All of this looks good on the predictability front and with shockingly no null cases over the past three days, confidence is very high for a massive winter storm impacting the region. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Hoping.. It really is a testament to the depth of the low pressure circulation and the strength of the large scale forcing. This lagging of the PV maximum in the model data appears to have some influence on the dramatic wobbles or zigzagging of the surface low track. Given the trajectories of the upper level forcing, would not be shocked to see an eastward shift of the surface low track in future model runs. An eastward shift in the track could provide just enough cooler air and better midlevel deformation that would yield a quicker changeover to snow and higher snow amounts. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 27 minutes ago, indianajohn said: Pretty much… May sound a little weenieish and not my intention, but looking at the tracks of the surface/mid level lows, I just kind of have a hard time believing we don't get a good snow out of this here and even back to Chicago. The progged tracks of those are pretty darn good for us. The later development may be playing a role (likely is) and obviously there is a tremendous cold/dry push behind the front. But I don't know... something seems a tad off in the model precip depictions. I could very well be wrong, but it's giving me some hope at least for now lol. The 1978 storm dropped a foot in Chicago with a trajectory less favorable than this storm (basically eastern TN north to Cleveland). That one did start its explosive intensification at a much lower latitude though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Both GRR and DTX taking their sweet time issuing pm AFD's Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 LOT had an update at 11am. at that time noted they were leaning towards warnings being issued For the Winter Storm Watch, made changes to add some temporal detail to the start times across the area per most recent trends in the model guidance. A more progressive trend overall with the system has now moved up the start of likely dangerous travel conditions into the daytime on Thursday. This is tied to a faster progression of a powerful Arctic front, combined with falling snow, and crashing temperatures. To set things up for the (likely) warning issuance phase, segmented out the Winter Storm Watch based on the general consensus of the timing of the Arctic front passage. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Both GRR and DTX taking their sweet time issuing pm AFD's Lots to digest. Coordination. Two phases to this storm. Normal snow/mix to start, then Friday when the hammer falls. System will bring different conditions everywhere at the start. Track isn't really set yet either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Nam a step in the right direction! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 18z NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Lots to digest. Coordination. Two phases to this storm. Normal snow/mix to start, then Friday when the hammer falls. System will bring different conditions everywhere at the start. Track isn't really set yet either. Oh, no doubt. Busiest these offices have been and at the busiest time of year for most on top of that. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Madtown said: Nam a step in the right direction! I think this all comes back to earlier moisture when sampling is digested as DTX wrote. h5 issues to sort through before synoptic/surface comes into better focus. Just a day away from renewed enthusiasm for this system. That cold lurking means business. Fuse in the powder keg just waiting to be lit 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Oh, no doubt. Busiest these offices have been and at the busiest time of year for most on top of that. Worst case scenario for me. Not a fan of this. Exciting and memorable, but eek. WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 17 inches possible through Friday. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph and will cause significant blowing and drifting snow. Additional heavy snow and high winds are expected into Saturday with storm total snowfall possibly reaching 2 feet along and west of US 131 from Kalamazoo northward to Grand Rapids and up into Big Rapids. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Madtown said: Nam a step in the right direction! Just looking quickly, it does deepen the surface low faster. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Quad cities going with warning as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Warning issues by dvn still says 55mph winds. I wonder if they will be replaced with blizzard warnings at some point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 NAM gonna lead the way. Let's get this party started everyone! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 If we just had the Euro and no other models, there would be so many fewer wx weenie suicides!! Read KBUF as to why: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 DVN says 4-7". ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Blizzard conditions will also be possible, with extreme cold wind chills as well. Wind chills as low as 30 to 40 below will be possible, especially starting midday Thursday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa CO, MI Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Worst case scenario for me. Not a fan of this. Exciting and memorable, but eek. WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 17 inches possible through Friday. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph and will cause significant blowing and drifting snow. Additional heavy snow and high winds are expected into Saturday with storm total snowfall possibly reaching 2 feet along and west of US 131 from Kalamazoo northward to Grand Rapids and up into Big Rapids. I may get 12-18 inches as I am in Ottawa Co. west of Grand Rapids.....west winds could be brutal creating whiteouts... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Worst case scenario for me. Not a fan of this. Exciting and memorable, but eek. WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 17 inches possible through Friday. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph and will cause significant blowing and drifting snow. Additional heavy snow and high winds are expected into Saturday with storm total snowfall possibly reaching 2 feet along and west of US 131 from Kalamazoo northward to Grand Rapids and up into Big Rapids. Dude! Congrats. Once or twice in a life-time deal on the table. ALL will remember a severe storm right at Christmas. Will be told by generations, for generations following. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: May sound a little weenieish and not my intention, but looking at the tracks of the surface/mid level lows, I just kind of have a hard time believing we don't get a good snow out of this here and even back to Chicago. The progged tracks of those are pretty darn good for us. The later development may be playing a role (likely is) and obviously there is a tremendous cold/dry push behind the front. But I don't know... something seems a tad off in the model precip depictions. I could very well be wrong, but it's giving me some hope at least for now lol. The 1978 storm dropped a foot in Chicago with a trajectory less favorable than this storm (basically eastern TN north to Cleveland). That one did start its explosive intensification at a much lower latitude though. I’m with you… my spidey senses are going off as well something not right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 STORM WATCH is such a lame a$$ color. Looks like stupid hazardous wx outlook Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Arx warning 5-8, 45mph winds 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 RDPS- sticking to it's guns (or sling shot) :O) 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 DMX going with WSWarn- with likely upgrade to Blizzard Warning it sounds like at least- Confidence: Medium to High The worst conditions will be Thursday into Thursday night, but lingering higher impact conditions will continue Friday with wind and blowing snow expected. Despite the snow diminishing Thursday, winds will continue to be strong as gusts approach 40 to 45 mph or higher. Lingering flurries and blowing snow will continue into Friday. We will carry our winter storm warning for the duration of the period for now, and the evening/midnight shift will look again more closely at areas or all of central Iowa, that need to be upgraded to a blizzard warning with the likelihood of whiteout conditions at times. The nature of the snow will easily allow for significant blowing and drifting, making for very difficult to possibly impossible travel at times. Wind chills are anticipated to drop to 30 to 35 below Thursday and approach 35 to 40 below Thursday night into early Friday morning. 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Mappage. Big Storm 3 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 RS Both NAM and GFS look a bit off in their handling of the short wave rounding the base of the trof, they seem to be trying to develop the eventual low out of the leading wave and trof in place ahead of the energy and they suppress the short wave as a sort of last piece of energy for the southeast U.S. cold front. I think earlier model runs may have had a better depiction with the energy rounding the base of the trof deepening over MO and IL rather than this concept of the low forming in IN and moving to MI. Either way all of the expectations for MI, sw ON, wNY snow belts would verify but there may be a better (worse for public) outcome for WI and IL, maybe even IA and MO. Later model runs (perhaps starting with 12z Euro) may start to drift back to the earlier more intense solutions. I can't see how the overperforming start here would translate into a weaker short wave rounding the base after DEN gets a brief blizzard tonight and Wed a.m., would expect a snowstorm to develop in OK and s KS as the low drops into Texas. I think it will stay more of a dominant feature rather than getting absorbed into some developing low way out ahead of the main energy. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Mappage. Big Storm lol come on now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Mappage. Big Storm Lmao. Is this real? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Probably more realistic. Still a massive storm 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 12 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Mappage. Big Storm Seems a tad bit off. Especially around chicago and Wisconsin lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Lmao. Is this real? If it’s any consolation weather channel still has the “bomb cycle” developing with upwards of 12” for Chicago and surrounding areas… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Probably more realistic. Still a massive storm That’s much better lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Maybe we got something here folks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 One thing to remember. The lakes are much warmer right now, than when these storms typically occur. Not sure how much the models are taking that into account in the snow belts. That amount of wind and cold air and moisture, really makes me wonder how much snow we get. I was forecasted for 4-8" last week and ended up with 15. No model had more than 6" Models still really struggle with snowfall amounts to this day. Makes more sense to go with your gut and good old fashioned common sense meteorology. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 Stopped the bleeding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 GFs upped totals in Iowa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Madtown said: Stopped the bleeding. Yes. Good way of summarizing the 18z cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 18z GFS looks a bit better: 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted December 20, 2022 Report Share Posted December 20, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1152 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. A wintry mix Thursday transits to snow Thursday night. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times late Thursday night through Friday. The snow will transition to lake effect snow through Saturday. Storm total snow amounts will be quite varied, exceeding 8 inches near Lake Michigan to a few inches in northwest Ohio. West winds could gust as high as 55 mph, and will cause significant blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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